blonde poker forum

http://www.pokerxfactor.com/SH24700/4625_20060921_184316

How many people make this call?

LOL

What a fish eh!

SHIP ITTTTT!

these people that over play AK huh

Bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad

even if he knows i'm shoving any 2 it's a massively -ev call for him given the other 2 players with 2BBs left each about to take the blinds in the next hands.

luckily the poker gods understand this and shipped me the pot.

No-one bit and still he couldn't help telling us how he is the master of SNG bubble mathematics! I thought we had saved ourselves in this thread!

I take offence to that. My purpose is to educate and inform, not to promote thy self.

If you don't find my posts in the analysis forum useful then just ignore them but I just try to spell out some fundamental mistakes that people make around the bubble, mistakes that are not always obvious to say someone who mainly plays cash games, and hopefuly other blondites can learn from them.

That's all.

Yeah but no-one has said it was a good call.....

Wee bit harsh Flushy, the is the rip layers offa Dale thread is here.....  ;goodvevil;

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=14794.new#new

I know but how does that stop me from analyzing the hand and saying its a very -ev call?

I just chose an interesting hand to post that I thought people could learn from. Yes it's funny, 72 vs AK, but there's a good message there too. The bubble is where people make the biggest mistakes and we have a lot of players on here starting SNG quests etc.

I think these posts are valuable. HoLLa!~

they are, but the manner in which you present them is probably a disuader to some.

What I want to know is... the call is something like a 3% downswing rite? (from 28% to 25% if I worked it out rite) but lets say he wins, and then picks up the blinds in the next couple of hands, or rather, he manipulates the betting to make sure that he constatly takes your blinds (as you cant call with anything apart from the top shelf hands).. then he will have gotten himself into a spot where his stack is gonna be worth something like 45%... taking a -EV spot to engineer a situation that he can turn into a huge +EV situation. Is ICM the be all and end all? Its been a long time since i grinded the sng's so I forgot the thrust of it

That is just my personality, I'm young and immature, but it's just the way I am.
I don't think I offend anyone, I don't try to anyway....  ;hide;


I repect what you're saying here.
In this particular hand the call is SO -ev that he's not even going to regain that lost value the times that he takes the chiplead because the 2 short stacks are next for the blinds in the next 2 hands, they have +/- 2BBs each.
The bubble will be bursting soon anyway so he wont have enough opportunities to make his chiplead work for him by say stealing my BB. Infact by the time it's my BB he'll probably not want to push me out of the pot as there will likely be a shortie all in and it's much better for him to call and check it down.

On this particular table I think I had a tight image aswell (but he might have played with me before, who knows) so I think he has to give me respect for some sort of range better than any 2, which makes it even more of -ev call.

AKo vs random cards has 65% equity.
He really needs over 75% against my range to make this call. If he correctly puts me on any 2 cards he can go ahead and call with a big pair but if he puts me on any sort of reasonable range at all then even KK is fairly marginal.

This particular situation was ideal for me to push any 2 given how the <2BB stack was getting the blind next hand.

ICM math is 90% of what you need to know about the bubble. The rest is common sense, obviously ICM doesn't factor in things like who's taking the big blind next hand and what effect the new situation will have as a result of calling the original hand etc (nor does it including any weighting for skill advantage, but with blind/stack rations this big the only skill is knowing when to push and when to fold).

makes sense.... I thought I put in my post that it might not be so great here because they only have 2BB's, thats why it prolly wouldn't make up the shortfall in this specific instance. Strange

the big problem I have with ICM isn't so much with regards to its usefulness, its more to do with its application...the math is going to be spot on as long as you are accurate/objective with the assumptions, but the problem is that people focus too much on the former and not on the latter. It harms peoples games when they are shipping their stack in with 2/8os even though observant people can see that the orig raiser is calling 100% of the time. ICM knowledge on a less then perfect level is costing them money.  Most of the top sng players know the math pretty perfectly, the best ones are the people who can assess the situation objectively enough to apply the math to it.

Anyways, your sng posts are generally pretty spot on, so keep up the good work!

I do think Dale is of the select few on here who REALLY know the game theory and maths involved around certain situations and i'm glad they do want to share, ok application can look like constant chirping but i'm prepared to brave that if i can pick up the odd bit of information :D

Keep it up, where is 12barblues BTW??