blonde poker forum

FUNNY BIT

[Sep 24 16:37:08] : Hand Start.
[Sep 24 16:37:08] : Seat 2 : L V Whitey has $2,880
[Sep 24 16:37:08] : Seat 3 : silly mo has $1,300
[Sep 24 16:37:08] : Seat 6 : TL512502 has $6,090
[Sep 24 16:37:08] : Seat 7 : Daleroxxu has $3,120
[Sep 24 16:37:08] : Seat 9 : shipit72 has $4,610
[Sep 24 16:37:08] : TL512502 is the dealer.
[Sep 24 16:37:08] : Daleroxxu posted small blind.
[Sep 24 16:37:08] : shipit72 posted big blind.
[Sep 24 16:37:08] : Game [30] started with 5 players.
[Sep 24 16:37:08] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Sep 24 16:37:08] : Seat 7 : Daleroxxu has 7s 4h
[Sep 24 16:37:11] : L V Whitey folded.
[Sep 24 16:37:11] : silly mo folded.
[Sep 24 16:37:12] : Stakes: 300/600 Current level: 7 Next level in: 3 min. 
[Sep 24 16:37:14] : TL512502 folded.
[Sep 24 16:37:24] : Daleroxxu called 300 and raised 2,520 and is All-in
[Sep 24 16:37:28] : shipit72 called 2,520
[Sep 24 16:37:29] : Showdown!
[Sep 24 16:37:29] : Seat 7 : Daleroxxu has 7s 4h
[Sep 24 16:37:29] : Stakes: 300/600 Current level: 7 Next level in: 3 min. 
[Sep 24 16:37:30] : Seat 7 : Daleroxxu has 7s 4h
[Sep 24 16:37:30] : Seat 9 : shipit72 has Ac 9c
[Sep 24 16:37:39] : Board cards [Th 8c Kd 5d 6h]
[Sep 24 16:37:39] : Seat 7 : Daleroxxu has 7s 4h
[Sep 24 16:37:39] : Daleroxxu has Straight 87654
[Sep 24 16:37:39] : Seat 9 : shipit72 has Ac 9c
[Sep 24 16:37:39] : shipit72 has High Card : Ace
[Sep 24 16:37:39] : Daleroxxu wins 6,240 with Straight 87654
[Sep 24 16:37:48] : Stakes: 300/600 Current level: 7 Next level in: 3 min. 
[Sep 24 16:37:49] : Hand is over.
[Sep 24 16:37:49] : Stakes: 300/600 Current level: 7 Next level in: 3 min. 


MATH BIT (dedicated to Flushy)


before hand:

L V Whitey has $2,880 -- $ev 17.8% of prizepool
silly mo has $1,300 ---- $ev 8.8%
TL512502 has $6,090 ---- $ev 29.4%
Daleroxxu has $3,120 --- $ev 19%
shipit72 has $4,610 ---- $ev 25%

After its folded to me in the SB i have 2 choices, push or fold.
(I have 5 BBs, any other move here is garbage)





if I fold:

L V Whitey has $2,880 -- $ev 17.9%
silly mo has $1,300 ---- $ev 8.9%
TL512502 has $6,090 ---- $ev 29.5%
Daleroxxu has $2,820 --- $ev 17.6%
shipit72 has $4,910 ---- $ev 26.1%




if I *gulp* push:

First thing to consider is what cards this guy will call me with.
I haven't gotten out of line in this game, doubling up with AA or KK or something earlier on, but I've noticed the villain on some of my other tables, so if he's observant he may have seen me push trash at some point.
He would have to call off about 70% of his stack to call.

A reasonable calling range to put this guy on would be: 33+,A7o+,A3s+,KQo,KTs+ (thats any pocket pair 33 and up, any offsuit ace with at least a 7, any suited ace with at least a 3, KQ offsuit and suited kings with at least a ten)


With a range like this 82.6% of the time he's going to fold and I'll increase my stack as such:

L V Whitey has $2,880 -- $ev 17.7%
silly mo has $1,300 ---- $ev 8.7%
TL512502 has $6,090 ---- $ev 29.3%
Daleroxxu has $3,720 --- $ev 21.5%
shipit72 has $4,010 ---- $ev 22.7%



17.4% of the time I get called. When this happens my 74o has 29.8% equity in the hand against his range.

So 5.2% (29.8% of 17.4%) of the time I'm going to win the showdown:

L V Whitey has $2,880 -- $ev 19.4%
silly mo has $1,300 ---- $ev 9.4%
TL512502 has $6,090 ---- $ev 30.3%
Daleroxxu has $6,240 --- $ev 30.6%
shipit72 has $1,490 ---- $ev 10.7%

and 12.2% (70.2% of 17.4%) of the time I'm going to lose the showdown:

L V Whitey has $2,880 -- $ev 21.9%
silly mo has $1,300 ---- $ev 10.8%
TL512502 has $6,090 ---- $ev 32.3%
Daleroxxu has $0 ------- $ev 0%
shipit72 has $7,730 ---- $ev 35.2%


averaging all that up, that's
((82.6x21.5) + (5.2x30.6) + (12.2x0))/100= $ev 19.4%

(I'm ignoring odds of a split pot, it doesnt change the outcome much anyway)

So pushing looks the more attractive option, averaging out at giving me 19.4% equity in the prizepool, compared to folding which leaves me 17.6% of the prizepool.

If the villain was to call me with a much loser range of 22+,A2+,KTo+,K8s+,QTs+, it still averages out as 18.5% $ev when pushing.

So this was a good push by me..... BUT that doesn't mean it was a bad call by the villain (infact it was a very good call given my range), we both played the hand correctly, I make a +ev push and he makes a +ev call, the more dead money / higher the blinds the more these situations occur.

Obviously you don't have enough time to do math everytime these situations occur. It is good practise to save the HH for these type of situations and analyze them later. The more you analyze, learn, analyze, learn, analyze, learn, the more it becomes second nature.

HoLLa!~

 :goodpost: ;thankyou;

What if his calling range is much tighter.....A9 being the bottom end of it,

Flushy, the tighter his range is here the more +ev it is for me. The looser his range is the less +ev or more -ev it is for me.

He has the difficult task of putting me on a range of cards that I would push with here.
If I get a really loose call from him here I tag him with a note and my push range tightens in future against this guy.