blonde poker forum

Opponent is absolutely top class, one of the best players on Stars IMO. We are both in top 10 in chips (he is chip leader) with about 100 left when thsi hand crops up... What do you do here?


okerStars Game #7130800497: Tournament #36191601, $50+$5 Hold'em No Limit -
Level VII (100/200) - 2006/11/22 - 16:55:43 (ET)
Table '36191601 14' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: superjacopo (3235 in chips)
Seat 3: severine (7475 in chips)
Seat 4: petejoha (4410 in chips)
Seat 5: PrinceTendee (19800 in chips)
Seat 6: ThE MyZeR (15570 in chips)
Seat 7: Rabscuttle (56930 in chips)
Seat 8: The Camel (23734 in chips)
Seat 9: david_a (7385 in chips)
superjacopo: posts the ante 25
severine: posts the ante 25
petejoha: posts the ante 25
PrinceTendee: posts the ante 25
ThE MyZeR: posts the ante 25
Rabscuttle: posts the ante 25
The Camel: posts the ante 25
david_a: posts the ante 25
petejoha: posts small blind 100
PrinceTendee: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to The Camel [9h 9s]
ThE MyZeR: calls 200
Rabscuttle: raises 1000 to 1200
The Camel: calls 1200
david_a: folds
superjacopo: folds
severine: folds
petejoha: folds
PrinceTendee: folds
ThE MyZeR: folds
*** FLOP *** [Js 4d 6d]
Rabscuttle: checks
The Camel: checks
*** TURN *** [Js 4d 6d] [2s]
Rabscuttle: bets 1200
The Camel: calls 1200
*** RIVER *** [Js 4d 6d 2s] [9c]
Rabscuttle: bets 3000
The Camel: raises 4000 to 7000
Rabscuttle: raises 4200 to 11200

Ooops. This should have been in hand analysis. can you move it please Iron?

he has an overpair mate i go all in

My best guess is he has 88 or 10 10, get your money IMHO

he could have JJ however I have to go all in

push push push!!!!!!!!

I make a crying call, I can't see him 3-betting here with anything other than Jacks though. Small turn bet coupled with small re-raise on the river, giving your superlative odds. Would a player this good call an all-in with just a pair of aces or kings? If they would, then you can push, if not, I think you have to just call.

If he is good as you say he is, he either has it all or nothing here IMO. I call here he is most likely holding is jacks, but you just can't pass here.

Have to make a crying call.

having thought some more, he has  Jd and is trying to get u off, definite all in

I call.  I don't like pushing given your rating of him.

This is such a small raise that he's sucking you in with the nuts or he's representing that to you.  It means you're either dead in the water or he knows you're capable of laying this down based on that exact read.  Given that you're a well known 'top' player aswell, that's a very plausible option so you have to call here.

I think its 50:50 whether you're beat or not so I don't commit the rest of my chips by pushing.

Sheriff

If he's such a good player, I can't see him re-raising you with many hands that you would've beat. The hands that I would expect him to put you on are AJ, J9, any other two pair or a set. Depending on your table image perhaps also a busted flush draw, so I can only see him making that move with a very strong hand, that would beat the majority of hands he's put you on, which comes down to the straight (highly unlikely considering the preflop action), a strong two pair (J9) or any other set. Again, considering his 5xBB preflop raise, pocket deuces, fours and sixes are quite unlikely, as is J9 ... that only leaves Jacks + higher PP, but then considering what I said about him putting you on a range, him re-raising with AA-QQ would be unlikely, so Jacks it is?

All of that said, don't think I'd be convinced enough about my reasoning here to fold, so a crying call it is.


Edit: Oh, and why I don't think he has AJ: He wouldn't give you a free card on the flop with that, as any Q or K on the turn would make the board very scary for him, no?!

I agree - pushing makes no sense here. the only way he is calling your extra (allin) bet is with the nuts, so you cant win anymore money imho..

I don't see how the villain could have anything other than Jacks here. Keith's hand looks exactly like 99, so why isn't a good player afraid of his river raise?

Going all in is completely insane. We are playing against an excellent player and have been 3 bet on the river holding the 3rd nuts.

It's a tiny raise indicating he wants a call. Given the action thus far it looks exactly like pocket Jacks or he could have been getting goofy with 3-5 but I don't think he'd check the flop with 3-5.

Any player worth his salt is smooth calling Keith's river raise with an overpair and probably an underset too.

I think you could concievably fold the river but if you think he could 3 bet the river with 44/66 then call, but even against bad player you will usually never get 3 bet for the minimum by anything other than the stone cold goolies.

U only lose to JJ realistically, he raised an UTG limper from UTG+1, so his range is pretty solid.

However he is showing a lot of strength on the river, but i would still have to call, he doesnt have 3,5 for a straight.

It is possible he is also puttin a move on you, as cheap as it is for you to call. You checked the flop and just called his bet on the turn, what can you have to now raise the river, all other good hands before the river you either bet or raise because of the draws out there. He could put you on a busted draw, as nothing got there on the river.

Tough spot, but you gotta pay the 4.2k, and call it a cooler if he got the JJ. IMO no need to shove like some people have suggested

Alarm bells would be kicking off all around me with his reraise here, if he'd gone allin i'd instacall, ironic really.
Anyway i'd still call.

Rabs range is pretty much any pair preflop, he attacks limping more then pretty much any player I ever played against.

The interesting thing for me is why is his re-re-raise on the river so small, and why isn't he betting the flop. Experience tells me that if he has JJJ, hes betting the flop most of the time, and if he isn't betting the flop, hes almost certainly rasinig more on the river. As someone already said, Keiths hand looks pretty strong, why would Rab make almost a min-reraise if he had JJJ? I'd REALLY expect Rab to be making a bigger raise if he did have top set.

He defo doesn't have the straight. Its a tricky spot. Kinda rambling here, I'd be a little surprised if he flipped up JJJ here because of flop/river action, but I donno if he calls a RErerererereerererererererererraise enough with lesser hands to make pushing here correct. Prob not. Its a closer decision then people are giving credit for though. Because its a tourney, I'd call.

For those people thinking he has an overpair, do you really really think he is giving this river action with just AA/KK? Id be surprised if Rab would ever have an overpair in this spot

I'd agree with that..no way this is a push for me...against most players yes..but not a top player

Can I ask something though?..Why can he not have the straight? I play my sooted connectors (even 35) prettymuch the same way if I have this large a stack.

Its Rabscuttle - i'm all in, if he has JJ (or 3-5) then c'est la vie........

the suspense is killing me - what did he have?

I've thought about this overnight - not very practical as Stars are unlikely to introduce an "overnight" option on their time button.

I still can't work it out.

He put in a big early position raise so in the absence of any other info he should have a reasonable hand. 

Does he normally continue in heads-up situations like this?

He could check the flop with AK and bet the turn, but surely he makes a bigger bet on the river, if he is bluffing.

I'm sure an overpair just calls the river reraise.

Although his final bet shows strength i.e. it's a value bet - there is a slight note of caution in it - this might be because he has JJ and is very slightly worried about the str8 or he has 66 and is very slightly worried about a bigger set or the str8.

I think it's either 66 or JJ and I don't think 66 calls an all-in, so I'm calling.

remember the hand between Phil Ivey and Paul Jackson with all the small raises and reraises - i think this is a similar senario where two of the sites top tourney players are clashing both knowing exactly the level that the other plays at.

except this time Camel actually has a hand.........

How are these two situations similar at all?

Ivey and Jackson's action was on the flop on a paired board. This hand is on the river with no pair on the board and only one unlikely way of making a straight.

I was referring more to the fact that they were playing each other rather than playing the cards.

Rab knows that Camel is a good player and visa versa, both play to such a high level that they know how each others thought processes work. If Rab knows that Camel can lay down a hand then instead of making a big rereraise on the river (where like IFM says he probably instacalls a big all in) by only betting a small amount and sewing a seed of doubt within the Camels mind Rab may think this is the only way he can bluff Camel out of the pot.

taht's a good point...and it's why you can only call this hand IMO..as Camel knows this and therefore could take him for a big bluff (and move all-in, donking off all his chippies if Rab does hold the nuts (or in case of trip J's second nuts)

I still haven't heard why everyone is soo convinced the guy can't have the straight.

I came very very close to passing. In fact, If this had been had the WSOP main event I'm sure I would have passed. I was almost certian he had a set of Jacks.

But, in cold light of day, totalise is right. Against an aggressive opponent Rab  would almost certainly have led out for something like 1/4 or 1/3 of the pot on the flop with JJJ hoping I would flop something big enough (or decide to make a move) to raise him.

With this analysis, his hand becomes obvious. He turned a set of 2's. And then played it like he would have if he had flopped a set.

He's played it beautifully. I am just a luckbox who can't fold a big hand!

I've said it once and I'll say it again...Totalise is a feckin' genius when it comes to hand analysis. :)

which is why i go all in on the river, I think i have the best hand (i too have played against Rab before) and if i got lucky hitting my two outer and caught him with a smaller set then i get paid - if he was on a bluff or draw and missed then he passes and i win the pot without him seeing how lucky i got hitting my possible 2 outer on the river.

so why exactly does he not do this with a set of twos?

He does, on the turn when he hits his set and bets about 1/3 of the pot.

the two comes on the turn not the flop - and he does bet the turn when hitting his set.

darn, stupid slow typing monkey fingers :(

too busy scratching yourself again?

You need fast 'Homer' fingers like mine, all the ladies love them... ;)

FYP