blonde poker forum

Anyone have any guesses which way the $$$ is going to go in the next few months?

Seems to be very low at the moment... Would you keep dollars right now?

I don't know the answer Keith but I was shocked to see how poor the exchange rate was at the moment, any tips on withdrawing or keeping the roll online would be most welcome.

If we knew this we could get rich quick on the exchange markets. 

Thanks for stating the bleedin' obvious. Next time I need to know what the day of the week is I'll pm you.

I specifically asked if anyone had any guesses which way the dollar would go.... "guesses" being the key word.

Totalise and Tight End for two might give more interesting and illuminating answers than you did.

Time of the month Keith ??

There is a certain 'Betfair forum' feel to that reply.

Do you post on there Chief?

I think it'll hold steady for a while. Then lose about 5-15% of it's value towards the end of this year.

I would like to when we're all going to be playing in Euros.

I usually play in skivvies.

Look at the value of the dollar over the last thirty years, its heading in the same direction its been heading for a long time - down.

To me it looks like it's going to hold steady for around 3 months and then there will probably be another jump. The euro is set to gain in strength but the future direction of the pound against the euro is tricky. There has been a general uptrend over the last year but the new year is when a lot of big businesses etc. dump their holdings to get money in the bank to get their books to look good. Often the new year is the time for a change of directions (i.e. the big businesses buy currency again after they have reported) but i fully expect the euro to get stronger against the dollar. The pound is likely to follow suit but i'm not sure to what extent.

E-mail from friend who works at barclays cap..

"short term the market looks to have under priced in the probability of a rake hike by the BoE on Thurs, so GBP likely to rise up to and probably beyond, long term $$ seems strong, re-appraisal of US market and chance of zero rate hikes for 6 months has seen a lot of interest in the $$ especially in the options market, if I was trading now I'd buy GBP with tight stops and look to enter short position around 1.97"

basically he thinks over coming months the $ will get stronger.

take this for what its worth

CHINA CHINA CHINA!

Depends how trade Negotiations with CHINA go.

PS If I wanted the best informed $$ opinion I'd goto Peter Birks. (He has a blog)

http://peterbirks.livejournal.com/ (http://peterbirks.livejournal.com/)

Thanks for that.

With a client of mine with in excess of $1mill , the dollar rate is fairly high up on their agenda!!

Oh for the good old days of $1.70

LOL I read that, but all I saw was

 "irluhgrwguheufhwhudhvkSCXCC€€$OSHGHSDLVNWNEEN$€"

I think that if the $ were to break through the magic $2/£1 barrier it could well go into freefalll.

But it seems to me that every time it gets to around £1.95 it makes a bit of a recovery.

My guess is that barring any world calamaties, it will stay between $1.90/$1.95 in the short(six month)term.

There is no way in the world that the USD will go into freefall, that just aint gonna happen as it would have massive implications on the whole world economy. The US and UK trade links are just to massive to allow that. I have some data and commentary and work which I will publish later, but its similar to the earlier post. Long term USD will strengthen again, but it might take a while. If you have USD now and dont need them, now would not be the time to exchange them back to GBP. At some point this year we should be back in the low to mid 1.80's again. Short term (i.e. the next month or so) dont expect too much to happen in either direction.
The flip side is (as I said a month or so ago), if you have spare GBP and are planning on going to the wsop this year, then buy your USD now would be my advice - just not at a thieving bank/thomas cook or similar with their 25cent spread on the price. Daylight robbery !!
Open a currency account at your bank and exchange there. (more like dusk robbery then). Just make sure from the bank that you can withdraw cash in currency from their tills first though, otherwise you wont be able to do anythnig with it once you have bought it !!

Not worth the hassle of account opening for exchanges of a few hundred quid, but for a few thousand it deffo is.

Lol I do but hardly ever.  No need to throw a tantrum Camel.

I read somewhere (may even have been from one of the financial whizzs on here way back) that the strength of the dollar is founded on the fact that oil is traded in dollars. Therefore countries need to have dollars to buy and sell oil and, specifically, need to have reserves of dollars with which to buy their own currency in the event of a run on it by speculators in the market in order to protect the exchange rate.

However, if countries started trading oil in another currency (like euros) then the pressing need for dollars wouldn't be there, meaning countries would look to swap their dollars for euros, sending the dollar through the floor. So it is definitely in the USA's interest for all oil to be traded in dollars.

In 1999 Iraq (2nd largest oil reserves in the world) started trading oil in euros. The US invasion has put a stop to that.

Iran are planning to open an oil exchange this year which will trade oil in non-dollar currencies, primarily euros. The US want this stopped as well, which is why Iran has found itself in the 'Axis of Evil' despite the fact that its current president is nowhere near as hardline Islamic as previous leaders.

If you were to have a think about what a strong euro would mean for the pound, then you might reach conclusions about why British troops are in Iraq.

[/conspiracytheory]

The reason for the question was that I'm at Atlantis for the PCA and Stars are letting you withdraw cash from your account.

This seems the only opportunity to get money from my account at exactly it's value (banks, credit cards, neteller always nick a %) and I wondeed if it was worth withdrawing money for WPT and WSOP events later in the year now.

Cheers for the responses.

yep..that's my opinion on it.

I once again (as I do everytime this is brought up) advise you to googlevideo Robert Newmans; Brief History of Oil.

It is a stand up show/ history lesson..but he also bring up the whole "which currency will we use for trading Oil" he does it in a way that is funny aswell though...and that way most people can understand why exactly it is not surprising America HAD TO (from their perspective) go to war with Iraq

Not the daftest conspiracy theory, add to it the American agitation (including a US sponsored coup) over Chavez in Venzuela - he's already threatened to move to the Euro.

yes Chavez (right before the war on Iraq) was actually president of OPEC and one of the things on the agenda for that years OPEC meeting was "THE SWITCH FROM DOLLARS TO ERUO'S". Simply put?..That could not be allowed.

This was a previous post on this forum about the subject although I thought the original thread was longer..I might be mistaken though.

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=17467.msg357862#msg357862

:goodpost:

Looks like your client has had a good month Paul.

Any coincidence that the software manufacturer who makes the training games for the US militrary has launched one which is an invasion of Venezuela? Or that the US keep describing him as a dictator when the elections have been under more scrutiny (and the results deemed more trustworthy) than the US's?

Of course Chavez rubbing the republicans' noses in it by supplying cheap heating oil to the poor of New York was absolute comic genius. The Yank's will have him killed soon (it's already been suggested).

OK

Maybe the craziest prediction on here but.....based on the fact that I think the U/K economy is over valued and that debt is going to start badly hurting the consumer and therefore interest rates will reverse downwards mid year. The pound will slowly sink to 1.85 by may and then drop down to 1.75 by september. I may hit 1.60 before ending on 1.70

If the consumer stops spending then the value of the pound will  become more of an issue.

Forgot the info, will post it tomorrow.

The Chinese will have a big say in things too. If they decide to start holding more of their currency reserves in Euros, or even Sterling, the dollar will suffer.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,170-2536023,00.html

Hi Keith

We trade about 70% of deals in dollars. We forward purchase up to six months in advance. Our latest rates are 1.91  -  1.96  If you check Barclays they have a very wide spread at the moment. When the rate was 1.97 pre xmas they were giving 1.88     Hold your nerve mate. As long as no new conflict in the Gulf then two for one will not be broken

After seeing a documentary about Nostradamus, I thought I'd look to see if he could provide any clues about when to buy dosh for Vegas.  He didn't help but he did say this:

"In the Danube and of the Rhine will come to drink
The great Camel, not repenting it:
Those of the Rhône to tremble, and much more so those of the Loire,
and near the Alps the Cock will ruin him"


What can it mean?

Sounds like Keith is going to clean up on the EPT...

I think he should keep away from the Babylon club tho.....

AndrewT, Boldie, and Rod Paradise,


Is there any thread that you WON"T Hijack with your blatantly blindered ANTI-AMERICAN stupidity?

Submit outlandish schemes and unsupported argument with NO logical train to follow and then give a good group , "ahem! yes yes", then continue supporting it with bare-arsed inapplicible stretched analogies.

Really, why don't you just wander around in your I HATE THE USA T-shirts and end it at that rather than continually make up and/or republish daft anti-American  BS?

So we are either for you or against you?

;)

Ron, whilst I may think that the reasons for the recent foreign policy actions that the US government has taken are not the same as those they have stated, I don't disagree with what they've done. Their first priority is to act to safeguard the day-to-day lives of their citizens. Securing the access to oil and maintaining domestic economic stability fall under this responsibility.

I just wish they'd (and the Blair government) had told us the truth about what they were doing from the start, instead of making up all this WMD rubbish.

I'm not anti-american, I know too many that I like. I am anti-republican & unashamedly so.

I'm happy for you to tell us all the truth about the American attempts to destabalise Venezuela though, or about Chavez giving cheap oil to the poor in the USA,  seeing as I've made it up. The stage is yours.....

I have a better idea.

 Howzabout you provide some credible evidence (aside from circular logic) for your claims then I'll respond.

Don't know if it helps but am in Boston at the moment and the Dollar is being used widely.. and for more than just oil.

Cheers now

xx

I say Kosovo, you say Cosovo, let's call the whole thing off.

 ;tightend;

 rotflmfao rotflmfao

and Yank, I'm not anti american at all...in fact..some of the people I don't dislike are American.

Also as far as wars go it being necessary for the economy is a pretty good reason for war IMO..atleast it's honest.

I think it's funny that people still think wars are being fought for "noble purposes" WW1 over the killing of the Archduke Ferdinand. (Really? 10 million people dead because 1 person got shot? Get out of here)
Or that the Americans joined in the fight against the Germans because they were killing the Jews. Of course they didn't.

In the same way the war against Iraq was not about;

A; Saddam having WMD's and "We know where they are".

B; Because Saddam was not a nice guy.

I am fine with all that. I just would have been more OK withit if the government (the Bush administration as well as the Blair one) had just come out with "You know, they are planning to fuck with your livelihood, so we are going to shoot some people to protect that".

I am also fine with you being pissed off by people critisising your government and you immediatly saying "If you don't like the American government you hate Americans". Trust me, there really is a difference between you and your president and vice -president. go shoot someone in the face and I'm sure you'll find out ;)

I have some market commentary from thr RBS FX Strategist below which may or may not be of interest. It is long and will bore most people senseless. The main point is there is little or no fundemantal economic reason for USD to be at the level it is. A correction is inevitable back to the 1.80 mark at some point.

Their forecast rates are :
March 1.83
Jun 1.84
Sep 1.85
Dec 1.86

They can obviously be completely wrong and have been in the past but it is fair to say that this guy is far more qualified than any of us to predict and comment and GBP/USD !

The first section is actually from some of his November comments but its still basically relevant. The rest is From Dec.

(The Dec one is in PDF so I am going to have to type that one out so excuse typos please)

Nov:
While we still see some downside potential for the USD in the very short run, with the 2004 high in GBP/USD an obvious target, there is still very little news behind current USD weakness, and the comments from the Fed and the MPC both suggest that there is little monetary policy basis for the rise in sterling. The Fed have been highlighting that the risks are weighted on the upside for rates because of the high level of US inflation, but the market is still pricing in 2 ½ 25bp rate cuts by the end of 2007. While the general tone from the MPC has been hawkish, rates have been raised twice in the last two quarters and dissent has been increasing, so the pricing of a 50% chance of another move in February looks more dubious. In the bigger picture, we expect no change in UK rates and a rise in US rates next year, so there should be scope for a decline in GBP/USD if this is even half right and the market moderates its declining US rate view.

GBP/USD is testing the 2004 highs, but the arguments in favour of sterling are far less clear than they were in 2004. Back then, interest rate spreads were more in sterling’s favour than at any time since 1992. Now they are less in sterling’s favour than at any time since 2002, when cable was below 1.60. In real terms, spreads are even less favourable. The main explanations for sterling strength are a combination of central bank diversification, M&A inflow and low volatility fuelled carry trades being put on against European currencies and the yen. While these factors may remain to some extent going forward, they are likely to diminish as time goes on.


Dec: (I am taking extracts from this, if anyone wants the whole doc, PM me and I will email it to you)
While GBP strength can be explained in terms of flows, the high level of GBP/USD is harder to justify when the fundamentals are closely examined.

In reality the UK and US economies remain similar in structure. Many of the reasons advanced for long term USD weakness are also reasons for weakness in GBP. The main difference between the two is the USD's position as the worlds major reserve currency. We dont see this as sufficient reason for a sustained mis-pricing of sterling even though it seems likely to sustain sterling strength for some time longer.

Most of the strength of GBP/USD has actually been about USD weakness and in the absence of dramatic UK news, a general reversal of USD weakness is likely at some point.

From a long run perspective the biggest suprise about the current strength of GBP/USD is the lack of any real interest rate support for the move. The previous epsidoes in the last 20 years when GBP/USD ventured above 1.90 were typically supported by a big move in interest rate spreads between the 2 economies.

There is then a lot more around trade factors etc which will be of no interest I am sure and will take me too long to type !


PM me if you want the 4 pager emailed to you

Like the 'credible' evidence of WMD?  rotflmfao

Or credible evedence of a President with a MAJORITY (ie not gerrymandered) vote being called a threat to democracy by the US? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4723902.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4723902.stm)

Or that Chavez was properly and democratically elected AGAIN in 2006, with a huge majority? http://www.eueomvenezuela.org/pdf/EUEOM_Venezuela_Presidential_Election_2006_Preliminary_Statement.pdf (http://www.eueomvenezuela.org/pdf/EUEOM_Venezuela_Presidential_Election_2006_Preliminary_Statement.pdf) Can you say the same for good ole Dubya?

Or evidence of one of Bush's backers publicly calling for the same democratically elected president to be assassinated http://edition.cnn.com/2005/US/08/23/robertson.chavez/index.html (http://edition.cnn.com/2005/US/08/23/robertson.chavez/index.html)

Or Chavez supplying oil cheaper to poorer countries, and to poorer areas in the USA? http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/ntn54186.htm (http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/ntn54186.htm)



15 minutes finds this, from sources like the BBC & CNN, as well as the EEC report on the election.

The floor is yours.....

I feel a craving coming on...oh yeah  ;popcorn;

http://www.shoutfile.com/v/gSfSsCpR/Why_People_Believe_Americans_Are_Stupid

*ducks*

psss i love Americans :)

How many sides does a triangle have.

Blonde answers immediately and confidently "It has no sides"

I reckon she saw Mean Girls as well last night.



That kind of spat is very amusing. Doesn't mean to say the American people are stupid though, you could get some fun silly answers from edited footage in any nation in the world. We have plenty idiots over here too, who would all jump at the chance to speak to a camera.

To be fair to the USA, they have a rather healthy Nobel prize count. The last section on Krygyzstan was a bit unfair too, most were ready to admit their ignorance, but just saying they would support their commander in chief in whatever action was deemed appropriate.

Well I don’t think the clip is supposed to be anything but a light hearted comedic look at Americans in general. Of course its full of holes and not a true reflection on them all.

However I do find it really amazing how some people from whatever country dont even know the basic facts about their own country and world politics.

I love these things..although half the population of the UK also couldn't find brittain on a map of the world.

I love it that everybody just went with the "if the map says australia is France or North Korea then it must be"...bless stupid people...It's just more fun to make fun of the americans because..well ..they tawk funny.

Having your intelligence mocked by an Australian - that's harsh.

I'm always feel a little guilty chuckling away at this stuff though.

It's a little bit racist.

but everyone is a little bit racist...or so the song goes

Only if you're mocking people of a different race purely on the basis of their ethnicity.

One white Caucasian laughing at another white Caucasian mocking a third white Caucasian's intelligence isn't racist.

It wouldn't be as funny if they didn't talk in strange accents.

Their accent being part of their ethnicity.

Not trying to be a killjoy, fill your boots. It is what it is though.

It's not racist to make fun of stupid people.. Now if you were to say all Americans are stupid..that would be racist as there are atleast 3 that aren't ;)

Just think if they done a British version you would get Jade Goodie and Vicky Pollard style people on there. I mean we all know East Anglia is a foreign country don't we?

Enter the Colonel!!!!  ;nemesis; ;nemesis; ;nemesis;


 rotflmfao



BTW in Scotland we'd have Aberdonians, Aberdonians have people from Elgin ;)

I always thought that the East Anglia slip wasn't as stupid as we would have all believed.

After all, the Anglo-Saxons came from what we now call Germany, and that is where the region got it's name.

I'm not suggesting that's why Jade made the error, but everything is easy if you know the answer. The nation was shocked at the time as it displayed an apparent lack of basic British knowledge that any Queen fearing loyal subject should be able to recant as they stand for the anthemn, yet the name itself is foreign.




We are pretty much all flawed human beings. Most of us, myself included, will try to puff up their intellect, and hide their ignorance wherever possible. The childlike reflex to ask a question "East Anglia, that's foreign innit?" is surpressed in most of us. For every one who shows they don't know, there will probably be 20 who stay quiet and nod along.

Intelligence is so important in our society, we all naturally revert to childlike reflexes ourselves when confronted by it's apparent absecnce. It's the same thing we see in the schoolyard at playtime, I do it, and whomever is reading this probably does it too....

I have an insecurity, you personify the closest thing to an extreme of that insecurity, I will make fun of you to make myself feel better. Better about myself, because I now feel better than you.

When I hear people call Jade Goody stupid, it brings forward a question about the very nature of intelligence. Is it all about the memorization of useless facts? In Jade's life, if she didn't know where East Anglia is, what wives Henry VIII had, who won the FA cup final in 1990, would she be worse off? Maybe intellect has more to do with practical application in achieving real goals. Everyone who goes on that Big Brother show want's to be famous, 5 years on, how many who were on screen with Jade can anybody remember?

She who laughs last......doesn't really get the joke laughs loudest.

Good post.  Didn't Jordan say words to the effect that when people call her stupid she tells them to look at her bank balance?

All that aside, my true position is that I want to kill her, and I want to kill her mum. If I don't get to kill her, and if I don't get to kill her mum, I may have to kill my girlfriend, for making me watch her, and making me watch her mum.

I guess we're all human ::)

I remeber in the pub some time last year you made a very good point.

The cruelest people in any kind of social structure, are those who find themsleves second from the bottom. Citing the KKK as an example, dedicating their lives to oppressing folks, just to ensure it stayed that way, that someone was still worse off than them.

I guess that's me in this example, as an Aberdonian, ooh errr.

At least I won't have to lynch anyone, or burn down any churches. I can just let the Elgish Ironside's wheels down, flip him a V, then toddle off all nonchalant.

I went to see Jerry Sadowitz do his magic/comedy show the other week and, right enough, as a Glaswegian he told jokes about Aberdonians.

One of them went along the lines of 'Police are still mystified as to the motive of the guy in Ipswich who is murdering prostitutes. If the murders had happened in Aberdeen then the motive would most probably have been that the prostitutes didn't have change for a fiver.'

That doesn't make sense.

We don't pay the prostitute, we pay the farmer.

I'm overly glad that you and many others find this a humorous issue. Please keep this good humour when Iran and their religious nut president get ahold of Nuclear weapons and either threaten or attempt to use them on Israel and other western/NONmuslim powers.


Boring saying nothing. Oh wow! The SecState calims a publicly anti-American Latin American president is not good. Reall shocker there!


LOLZ The election practices and accuracies of a 2nd world South American country are your great baner of democracy in action? LOLZ

"Widespread institutional Propaganda"

Also, questioning whether or not Bush was elected is very old and boring argument and holds very little sway with someone who had their vote in 2000 DIScounted for being in the military (and assumed Republican by Gore and his BS artists).


DBL LOL Pat Robertson is a far right religious whacko with minimal influence on any government officials. Perhaps you find it better for the Venezuelan President standing alongside The Iranian President calling for the eradication of Israel and continued attacks upon The USA? Is that the type of rational and clearly superior President you like?

Also, howzabout some UK religious whackos? Howzabout Sheik Hookarm standing in FInsbury park Mosque weekly calling for sedition, murder, terrorism and being openly supported by George Galloway, CLaire SHort, and Ken Livingston?


Well if you can't spot blatant political propaganda......Oh Wait, OBV you can't because you rehash it and respew any Anti American (Oh and please don't say you are only anti-Republican when your broad stroke statements are consistently aimed at painting America not just her leadership) gibberish you can find with ZERO critique or alternate proposed solutions of any of the world problems The USA tackles


Yeah in less than 1 min you can generate links for >>>1000 9/11 conspiracy theories as well ergo they all must be true.

Also <1min search will find you 1000s of links for shemale porn, random poker websites, cheap prescription drugs, a list of curse words in all languages, and other clearly credible items of interest.


Also:
BBC doesn't lend particular credibilty to much either in that Your OWN (UK) Generals and Admirals reffered to them as the Bagdad Broadcasting Corporation during the last invasion for the deceptive and disengenious attempts to portray anything even resembling a a balanced reporting approach.

CNN on the other hand is more likely to search for the most sensational story vice the most accurate.

EEC? LOLZ The credibility of anything coming out of this disjointed political body of ***** is more often than not questionable.

In Summary, I hold a personal distaste for The Bush administration for many reasons, but at the same time still take offence at uninformed broad swipes at America in general for taking action on numerous world fronts whilst a majority of the world stands by and condemns but does little. You disgree with American policy? Propose a reasonable alternative and a who to carry out these alternatives?

i have the viable alternative option here






I DON'T CARE

ah you've been influenced by too much American TV.

my Glasgow influence makes me inform you lot to "Get it up yea's"

So, MadYank you ask for evidence, get it (from sources not allied with Chavez in the main), attempt to discredit it with LOLS and insults, but provide none of your own? Then you try and broaden the argument (a terrible habit of those without an argument)?

You were asked for evidence about my "anti-american BS" & challenged me to find some of my own. Job done, so time to put up or shut up - prove me wrong. (Preferably without descending into schoolyard insults again, I've been civil to you, let's see if you can manage the same).

I'm happy to do this via PM rather than keep this on the board.

 ;popcorn;

 ;nemesis;

Someone who has the balls to defend Bush *no pun intended* really has to have a serious look at the real picture, even his most feverant supporters realise the mans a bumbling idiot who makes Regan look mildly intelligent.

OK let me start my reply with a great big

LOL

-You have provided evidence of nothing except the already well know fact that The Venezuelan President does not like The USA's power dominance over The Americas. This is neither new nor startling news.

-"broadening the argument"
O RLY?

I'm not the one who hijacked a GBP/$ exchange discussion with an "I hate The USA and their administration" argument. I believe that was YOU.

-"Not having an argument"

What was your point in the first place? You don't like $ dominance of world currency markets? Why again? Oh because you Like Venezuela better?

-"Job done"

What job did you complete aside from a cursory google search of US/Venezuela relations? Also, If you read my reply, you will note, I comment specifically on each of your links and their meaningfullness as evidence.

-"Schoolyard insults"

Please do point out these insults which hath so offended thee.
Also, please review your initial post and tell me whether or not it smells of a condescending anti-American tone?

-ATQs!!!!!!

Answer my questions? What alternative solutions are you proposing? And who do you propose take these actions? Do you propose Inaction on all fronts rather than ANY action by The USA?

You have to admit that taking no action is better then taking ill-advised, not thought through, poorly executed action such as in the case of Iraq.

Entire volumes will be written about this in the future I'm sure. That said, NO I do NOT agree that taking NO action in the case of Iraq would have been better. That is my personal opinion after some not so friendly 1st hand witnessing of what Saddam's "friends" were capable of on the humanitarian side.

I would cetainly agree that Bush and Co SHOULD MOST definitely have had better preparation, plans, execution, and exit strategies though.

Amazingly... am STILL not caring..

Methinks the lady doth protest too much!

2 replies to let us know you're not caring = caring

making it 3 replies to say getting bored with the ranting and oh yeah... STILL not caring!!

and BTW.. lady?? u must have some funny looking women over there :/

Never gonna happen. This is modern day propaganda. If iran wanted to nuke any country in the world they wouldn't build a nuclear power station, then build nukes from the uranium enrichment process and then bomb someone. They would just go and buy and nuke from russia. That way they could just deny it/blame it on a terrorist group rather than starting a nuclear war.

Btw, Israel have over 1000 nukes (i think, it's a large number) they are the equivalent of a middle eastern superpower. Iran aren't going to start a war with them. Especially when the only reason the US get on with Israel is because of this (this is also the reason the US continues to back Israel in the Israel-Palestine conflict when they are blatantly backing the wrong side).

Oh the irony - an American quotes Shakespeare and the Brit fails to spot the reference.

We're through the looking glass here, people

Why do we call Americans Yanks and not Confs .....?

Mad Confederate wouldn't be as catchy on net forums.

Everything for a reason.

Interestingly enough...anyone see the frontpage of the times this sunday? For those of you that didn't. OPlans leaked out (intentionally?) that Israel is training up a strike force to do a surgical strike on Iran and take out the nuclear facility...wonder if Israel would actually have the balls to go through with that one as it would cause a massive stink in that area.

WOW on so many levels!

Believing that Iran doesn't want to get hold of Nuclear weapons is really "bury your head in the sand best wishing" in the face of of the absolute stark reality.

Iran's president has already stated that he is committed to the eradication of The State of Israel.


DBL WOW to the concept that US/Israel relations are based soley on the fact that Israel holds nuclear weapons. Um, I just wouldn't know where to stat with that one.

I think it would be unwise to question the "balls" or resolve of Israel. Right or wrong, once they decide on a course of action they deem necesary, they are highly likely to to execute the action. Israel has proven this time and time again regardless of world (and even US) opinion.

Couldn't disagree more.

I never said that Iran didn't want to get hold of nuclear weapons, i just said that there are easier ways of getting them.


That's not what i said.

If Iran nuked Israel, and vice versa it sure would solve alot of the problems there.


Lots of dead people though :( I knew there was a flaw in that plan.

Yes but they would open up a can of worms that would be ridiculous. As soon as Israel at this time would attempt a nuclear (because that's what we are talking about) surgical strike on Irans facilities full scale war will erupt. Of that there can be no doubt..and the Israelies know this. Yes they have more stones as a nation then any other nation in the world, but are also not stupid and know that if it comes to a full scale war with a country like Iran..which has a fairly decent army they will be in REAL trouble..especially as the entire region would come down like a ton of bricks on them.

I have a very good friend who is Israeli and in the military and this is the part we argue over most to be honest. I respect them for their capabilities but they have forgotten how they won their war when everyone was attacking them. The people Israel had back then were a completely different breed of Israelies who were willing to die for their country no matter what. That is no longer the case in most of Israel.
If Iran had proven nuclear capabilities or was proven to be close to them it would be another matter. If they would do it in the next few motnh the entire region would attack them..and there's only one way that could end for the world and it sure wouldn't be good.

Sorry, i shouldn't have used only here. The situation is far more complex but it is a marriage of convience.

This is a very interesting strategic and tactical situation.

1st I think The Israeli military does have both the stones AND the ability to pull off a conventional surgical strike on Iranian nuclear assets.

2nd I agree this would result in a wild shitstorm that they may or may not be able to handle on thir own. Militaily, I think they could handle it. Politically, no way.

3rd If Israel went down this path (assuming non nuclear strike on Iran), The Iranian conventional militay would be in quite a bind. The Iranians have a professional military (or what passes for one in that region) BUT like it or not, unless they did some earth shattering diplomatic wrangling (which I think they are utterly incapabe of with their current madman at the helm) they would'nt just be facing The IDF they would be facing several American Armored Battle Groups from the west and the US Navy in the Persian Gulf.

IOW it would cause a horrific shitstorm but I don't think it would quite develop into a full on conventional war due to the prescence of the American forces so near and dear.

That's not condescending.

Are you sure you know what the word means? (THAT'S condescending).

I think you'll find it's an additional comment to the theory that the US will move to protect their economy using gunship diplomacy if too many oil producers propose adopting the Euro instead of the dollar.

Getting a grip on what has been said instead of ranting on attacking people for what you THINK they said may mean you make more sense.

If you want to continue this you'd better cite your acceptable sources (Fox News & the White House?). No point in it until you do as the BBC/CNN & The EEC are not acceptable references (altogether infinitely more than you have so far managed).

I'd have thought there's a very good reason why Iran wants nuclear weapons.

Greneda - no nukes - US invasion
Afghanistan - no nukes - US invasion
Iraq - no nukes - US invasion
North Korea - thought to have some nuclear capability - US issues stern words

If I were Iran, I'd bloody want some as well.


This much is true - Israel takes decisions very much as if it were a cornered dog (which, geographically, it is). They bombed a nuclear reactor in Iraq in 1981 to prevent Iraq getting nukes and will do the same to Iran if they genuinely believe Iran is close to getting nuclear weapons and believe that the US will not actively prevent this from happening.

During the 1991 Iraq war, the main reason Saddam Hussein fired Scud missiles at Israeli civilian targets was to provoke the Israelis to launch a nuclear strike on Iraq, thus bringing in all the other Arab states on his side in the war.

OK I see you have little interest in an informed debate. You have not and will not address any specific point I make. You accuse me of being insulting and then just babble on about your astounding proof. Did you even read your own links? WTF do they prove or disprove? WTF kind of evidence are they supposed to be?

Also, as for ranting/attacking, THAT IS CONDESCENDING BS. You put up several clearly anti-American one sentence statements and then give me the "oh no! Oh shock! he's overreacting!" routine when you know damn well what the overall tone and connotation of your message is. If you don't, then oops, my bad, for you giving you a certain intelectual credit (THERE! THAT"S AN EFFN INSULT).


Just because this site/forum exists in a UK centric vacumn does not mean it's acceptable to often deride an entire group and not realize that it is wrong and bordering on bigoted just because very few from that group will see the remarks. Would you find it acceptable if a group of entirely white people started chattin it up about how all the black/Asian/Oriental/Hispanic/e.t.c were all X, Y, Z with X, Y, and Z expressed in the most condescending and ridiculing way? Probably not! Well guess what? It's not acceptable to refer to Americans in the same way.

Oh! And before 16 posters tell me I'm being oversensitive or overreacting, there is a vast difference from the occasional Yank joke, to the type of thinly veiled anti-American vitriol which always surfaces in any politcal thread on this forum. (Usually in the form of some wild arsed conspiracy theory with with at least several backup posters chiming in with "Oh Yeah! Another reason those Yanks are evil" type responses)

In Summary, I am fully capable of conducting a reasoned, logical, and NONrant debate. But a "debate" requires an exchange of positions and ideas. What's the debate with you? You put forth a bizarro theory that USA/Venezuela "gunship" policy is a major player in $ exchange rates. I reply to your "evidence" which proves or disproves nothing, and you try and redirect the debate to nothingness.


My impression of this exchange has been

RodParadise: Let's throw a random anti-yank conspiracy theory onto the fire in one sentence

Madyank: Yo Beeeetchs (3 named not just you)  chill TF out with the random anti-yankness!

Other 2 posters: Joke semi recognition of my request

RodParadise: I have the "Ark of The Covenant  smoking Gun EVidence" right here in the form of 4 links to boring barely related stuff

MadYank: DOOOOOD This Not Be Evidence and instead of slagging Yanks why not for once give a constuctive alternative to what you dislike.

Others: Humor with some points

RodParadise: You insult me (HAHA while I'm going to insult you HAHA aren't I clever?)

MadYank: DOOOOD makes some EFFFN sense and actually answer a question!

 ;popcorn; ;popcorn;

Things are getting a little hot in here, or is it just the popcorn machine running overtime?

Chill lads!

AND ANOTHER EFFIN THING!

WTF do you only post in purple? Is it because you HATE Americans?























PS I is chill luv!
PPS That's a joke BTW (about the purple)

MWAH Yanky  :kiss:

Heaven help us if we start a thread on USD interest rates, we could be in REAL trouble

 :goodpost: ;iagree; ;izimbra;

I think we need a new popcorn smilie.  ;popcorn;

You can hold off on the popping corns for now. MadYank iz a goin to slumber. So just cus I don't re-reply to any daft replies in a promptish fashion, don't mean I iz ceding control of the rantament!

Is that Shakespeare again?

Good rantament it is too.

I've not read the last few pages yet, just skimmed em, but looking forward to it.

You boys behave yourselves don't you?  :D

Over on the French EPT cancelled thread, we can all beat up on the French - its not like they would defend themselves anyway.

lol

IMO they are the only news organisation with any established reputation of unbiased credibility, and lack of political motivations. There will always be those who don't like what they hear and slam them for it.

Be these our "OWN (UK) Generals and Admirals" having a pop at the beeb would not surprise me. What possible motivation would they have for discrediting news organisations reporting from the region. What kind of historical reputation does the UK military have for journalistic ethics? (Quite the opposite)

It's like saying the video tape is lying because the guy in the dock said so.

Israel is looking at using nuclear bunker busters to destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities...thismilitarily makes sense as it's the best way to destroy them. Of course the explosions would take place underground providing the guiding missiles are all accurate but it's a trciky thing to do without everyone looking at it as a nuclear strike...especially everyone in the region.

While I don't accept the premise of discrediting the beeb coz the army said so. At least I understood your point


Here I'm still miles off track.

The BBC are not credible because there is some tat on the internet?

Can you clarify?

I think just about everyone except the beeb agreed they were a little biased during the Iraq war.

Having said that i may be wrong, maybe i just heard the negatives at the time :S

http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/newsevents/5309.html

In a debate where you have posted sweet fcuk all in evidence, this comment is just evidence of a lack of any kind of understanding of DEBATE.

[/quote]

Read your comment at the top. Please review my initial post and find my several anti-American sentences. It's one sentence. rotflmfao I did post a second post before the redneck rant - but I doubt there were several sentences in it (your test is to count them), there also wasn't an incorrect fact in them.
Yes there was anti-American policy in them, it was there, but in a typical American overreaction you took that as evidence of WMD and went into full assault
[/qoute]

Whoo-hoo an American complaining about bordering on bigotry. I made 2 posts criticising American policy and interference in other nations.... sorry that hurt your feelings, but that's not bigotry, because thankfully not all Americans agree with it.
If you really believe that then I'm sorry, I'm sorry for you as well, but I never want anyone to feel victimised for their race. II don't hate Americans, I hate the nation's 'lebensraum' type policies.


You have singularly failed to engage in debate, and have only asked for evidence in a complete absence of any of your own. I have not been insulting (in fact I've done none of what you accuse me of). I posted a comment about Chavez, followed by a fact about the US supplier of instructional software to the military selling a game about invading Venezuela. since then you have proved an American propensity for reading anything that backs their case into anything they want, an inability to read what was said & a pathetic grasp on what debate is.




 ;boltpp; Grow some integrity, construct an arguemet & come back to me - I'm trying to stay civil, but you've been pathetic & quite probably delusional, if you think you've done anything but flame and ridicule without providing any evidence beyone your own opinion, then I really feel sorry for you.

So should I hold on to the dollars then??

This reminds me of a gaming forum I used to be a member off around the start of the latest gulf war.

The forum was pretty much full of North American's, lots of threads on the war and bullshit about the war on terror, yadda yadda.

Anyone who dared ask questions about the true motives on the invasion was basically called an anti-American liberal etc etc.

Virtually everything I suspected then and outlined to our dear friends from across the pond has come true (not difficult i know).

I don't blame them for abusing those that asked questions, as the propaganda coming out in America at the time(i was living there just after 9/11) made everyone on edge and looking for scapegoat to nuke. You felt like if you spoke out against the invasion you were somehow not a true American and endorsing terrorism acts.

How times have changed, now as the body count continually increases and their is no measurable end to this the Americans are starting to ask those questions that should have been asked from the start, they see Bush for what he is.

No offense to MadYank but there is no debate anymore, especially on a Euro dominated forum. It would be like trying to persuade us that fox news aint biased, in-con-see-va-ble.

Intersting link, cheers

We need to get Rod and MadYank off for a pint together at some point.

(and then the rest of us can all go to the pub across the road and leave them to it)

You're probably right. It's far more difficult to get your point across when you are typing replies and reading the worst into anything anyone says.

As it stands though this argument is very un-blonde and while I think that MadYank is being very oversensitive to call the anti-american comments as approaching bigotry, he has a point if he feels that as he is in a minority as a Yank, if not in being Mad.

I'm not stepping down from  the argument & again offer to take it off blonde (either onto PM or onto a temp board the 2 of us can go at it on), but I can't be getting into this kind of heated debate when it's my job as a mod to try calm things. I should walk away from the argument, but won't, so I think I should step down as a Mod (which removes the restraints I put on my replies), and get on with it.

It's probably for the best as the other Mods do/achieve a lot more than I do. Maybe they can appoint a female Mod as a replacement?

Rubbish Rod.  :kiss:

Go and look at some old Celtic videos, get a good nights sleep and resume in the morning!

But if you drop the restraints you'll get banned for flaming :D

and whats worse Rod, I'll get ifmflushy to write the official warning!

So let that be as good a warning as any!

I know, which is why I'm happy to take it off the board. I'll create another so the  ;popcorn; eaters can watch if need be.

I was about to bring that up next........

p.s. stop sending me virus ridden hardcore gay porn :D

its nothing personal, I'm sending everyone virus ridden stuff and am struggling to rid my MSN of this virus. No idea what it was though as I hadn't opened the link myself!

Yes, i learnt today they have/are building 500 of them.

A no-(ass)holes barred steel cage forum.

Where the wives of Stepford go to let their hair down.

Blonde UNCUT, too hot for TK

LOL - assholes in the ring ;)

In America, you can go to places like this http://www.wayside.org/ and get a New England Clam Chowder and lobster pie.

Now the taste is good, y'understand, but, here's the rub (that's shakespearo to you my droogs), the dollar got so toy town you can get two helpings if'n yr a bit hungry and it costs about 53 english pennies.

And when people say 'djeet ?' you can reply, ' I ate heartily, but now I require a bevvy'

O Say ! can you see, .......

To Rod:

I had a long angy reply here but I have deleted it. I have decided you are not worthy of it.

Your comments culminating in the latest garbage, lead me to beilieve you are intelectually challenged, racist, and not worthy of ANY more of my time or effort.

One last thing, If you publicly question my integrity further WE WILL CARRY this on on a far more personal level.

Bad Day SIr!

I think you just did it far better than I could.

Good day to you Sir  ::)

interest rates went up today which is likely to make the pound even stronger :(

this is very unblonde and unnecessary chap...have a beer and relax...

Interesting this, the gbp/jpy has moved 800 pips in favour of the pound in the last week which gives weight to the carry trading argument. If this is the case, then you can be sure that people are going to be reluctant to ditch the pound (i.e. some strong economic data needs to come out of japan or their bank needs to hike their interest rate). At the same time, the pound made 400 pips against the dollar and euro has lost value against the dollar. Hence, it seems that the gbp/usd is where it is because of the pound's strength rather than the dollar's weakness (or lack of).

Personally i can't see any big movement coming until the end of the 1st quarter, but that's just my opinion. In fact, if i had any money, i would be getting into gbp/jpy now.

Hope this helps.

Scap that, i'm talking out of my arse. I've just noticed that the bank of japan has an interest rate announcement on wednesday. If they raise interest rates then the pound is very likely to fall.

Right, just in case anyone is interested.

The bank of japan didn't raise the interest rates last night and this caused the pound to strengthen against the yen and the $. There has been some consolidation (i.e. the price has dropped) since 8am (when the uk traders woke up) however the lack of interest rate move caused to gbp/usd to go up to 1.9775 before traders started taking their profits. Anyway, i learnt that the bank of japan meet every month to decide if they're gonna put up the interest rates so i can't see the pound weakening within the next month.

Hope this is of some use to someone.

I blame the Yanks ;)  ;popcorn;

(http://xs511.xs.to/xs511/07033/firefire.jpg)

Consider yourself duly flamed!

Interesting article today re OPEC.

They are starting to move their assets FROM dollars TO euro's.

That tells me they are not very confident of keeping oil trading in dollars rather than euros - if that happens, the dollar will hit REAL bad times.

Does OPEC know something we dont?

Well most of them do support the right God but I don't think they know about the money ;)

It's a political thing, the switch to the Euro. Sure there might be some economic benefits but the main one is political.

You got any linkage to that story?

I think it is an important signal regarding $ strength but for the moment is deffo a political weapon used to show disapproval of current US Guvment policies in Middle East. That said, I still think China's Tbill holdings have a far greater affect on $ strength in that if they decided to sell out to another currency the $ could easily spend a short time tailspinning with followon affects on US economy.

Link for ya ;)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070117.wxr-euro18/BNStory/Business/home

Many many more stories on google, just look for "opec dollar euro"

With OPEC moving their assets to Euro's, this article is also interesting :

http://www.rockhawk.com/the_dollar_vs_the_euro.htm