blonde poker forum

Okay, I just played this pot, and although it worked out nice, I want to find out if I did the right thing. Sometimes we often only analyse the hands we lose.

1 Question - should I have folded on the flop?



***** Hand History for Game 2739310023 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, September 19, 15:03:00 EDT 2005
Table Table  55023 (6 max) (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: snoopy1239 ( $260.45 )
Seat 5: apasara ( $114.75 )
Seat 6: WinterMag ( $12.70 )
Seat 4: MRK1979 ( $230.05 )
Seat 3: pesm11 ( $132.60 )
Seat 2: smeshp ( $63.35 )
smeshp posts small blind [$1].
pesm11 posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to snoopy1239 [  7d 9d ]
MRK1979 calls [$2].
apasara folds.
WinterMag folds.
snoopy1239 calls [$2].
smeshp calls [$1].
pesm11 raises [$4].
MRK1979 calls [$4].
snoopy1239 calls [$4].
smeshp calls [$4].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6h, Th, 5d ]
smeshp bets [$20].
pesm11 calls [$20].
MRK1979 calls [$20].
snoopy1239 calls [$20].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8s ]
smeshp is all-In.
pesm11 raises [$74.70].
MRK1979 calls [$74.70].
snoopy1239 is all-In.
pesm11 is all-In.
MRK1979 is all-In.
** Dealing River ** [ 3s ]
apasara: yeah
pesm11 shows [ 6d, 6s ] three of a kind, sixes.
MRK1979 shows [ 9h, 3h ] a pair of threes.
snoopy1239 shows [ 7d, 9d ] a straight, six to ten.
smeshp doesn't show [ 8d, 6c ] two pairs, eights and sixes.
snoopy1239 wins $30.40 from  side pot #3  with a straight, six to ten.
snoopy1239 wins $194.90 from  side pot #2  with a straight, six to ten.
snoopy1239 wins $207.75 from  side pot #1  with a straight, six to ten.
snoopy1239 wins $250.40 from  the main pot  with a straight, six to ten.

what was that plum doing in the pot with 9 3 ffs ... is this play money ?? :)

hehe. Cos he's a mug. Maybe he way saying the same thing about me.  :-\ :-\ :-\

Was that a 'yes' or a 'no' then...

 :)

Hmm putting 20 into a pot of 100, so you're getting 4/1 on an 8.5% shot that you hit the straight on the turn.  Can't say I would make the call myself but with the EV as you're probably gonna getting paid off if you hit then it may just be justified.  So not entirely sure now I think about it.

Yeah. It's the implied odds I was wondering about.

Just interested to know what everyone else's take on it was.

with three people before you in the pot, i think the call was a good one, plus you had a backdoor flush draw ...  good call in my opinion.

I'm not too sure myself. Even if I do hit, there's still a lot of cards that can beat me on the river.

Dont think it was an awful call. If the turn had brought a low diamond and the guy with trips went all in it would have been hard to pass though. Could have turned into one of those compound error jobbies. Unless you were passing on the turn without an 8?

It's worth a call in a big family pot like this. I'd be unlikely to call HU though.

I don't think you can call here , although its a multiway pot and you will probably get the value if you hit , there are still ways you can hit and be beaten on the river - but it is no limit so its maybe justifyable . I think you have to beware the term implied odds, it can be used as an excuse for many a   err   marginal call. Also you were last to act which meant it couldnt get bumped behind you. Hmmmmmmmm   I think its a very tight situation i wouldnt call the $20 as its too much but i think its more of a playing style choice than a math thing.

thats why i love this game , so many different opinions and none of them can be called the "RIGHT" one ... my way of thinking the call was a justifiable one was because he was the last to act, so he new he wasnt going to get reraised ....  given his position, i stand by my view that the call was a good one.

yeah tricky one.... i think you have to say that the 8h is a dead card with two flat callers after the $20 bet... someone must be on a flush draw.  That gives you around 6.5% to hit.  you're putting 20 in to a 76 pot.  the gap between pot and hit odds imo do not justify the possible implied odds win, but that's probably just a matter of style of play.  it clearly paid off this time!!  definitely only callable in last position tho, and 3 others in the pot is also prob the minimum, so it is a borderline decision even for a loose player.
think the guy who hit trips shoulda raised it up tho, with two players behind him, he's letting them in if they're on a draw....

Anyone hate the guy with trip 6s play on the flop. Was he just greedy or too passive?

i wouldnt call, like riverd said you have 3 outs because the one 8 is more than likely dead. somebody could also be holding 78 and drawing to an up and down straight so that could take another 1 of your outs away.
i folded 2 gutshots at walsall on sunday snoop and they both hit(i always say i play to tight live ???) and that was in the rebuy period

i have just read the hand history again and noticed another player was holding 68 so you were drawing to 2 outs

True, but I didn't know another 8 was in the hole.

no i know that, but what i am saying is like riverd said someone is very likely to be drawing to a flush and equally somebody could be drawing to an up and down so you would you put them on the other 8

I am agreed that it wasn't a technically brilliant call but:

he is last to act and cannot be reraised, he can get out on the turn if any card bar his 8 comes,

he knows if he hits it he probably takes an entire stack here (which IMO is the main aim in a cash game)

and he wont be left shallow stacked if he loses $20 here. I dont think it's THAT bad.

I think it is safe to say that I'm only drawing to three eights. The threat of a straight or flush draw must take away an out.

I think I'd be unlucky if I only had 2 outs.

I've had a think about this hand and these are my thoughts:

I see this as a very marginal decision. I don't think it's necessarily a matter of what style of player you are, but more a case of 'does the potential pay out justify such a loose call?'

I think there are both pros and cons to this question.

PROS

-- I'm on the button and so have the advantage of acting after everyone else. No-one can raise behind me and therefore I won't be wasting $20 without seeing the turn.
-- If I hit and my hand holds up, I am almost certain to clean out the original raiser. I also feel like I will clean out at least one of the other 2 callers. It's an online scenario and the pot is quickly increasing in size. I doubt they'll BOTH be able to resist.
-- I have a backdoor flush draw and one that will probably win if it arrives.

CONS

-- The original agressor is low on chips. My focus needs to be on cleaning out the player with $230. However, he is the 2nd caller and probably has a drawing hand which he could easily lay down on the turn.
-- One of my outs is probably in the hole. True, one player may have the flush draw and another the open ended straight draw, but I could also have 4 cards to draw to. Therefore, on average, I reckon I'm aiming to hit 1 of 3 outs.
-- The backdoor flush draw may make me pot-committed to a big pot if a diamond hits the turn. Do I really want to put myself in this situation?
-- Assuming that a flush draw is taking away one of my outs, I've only got around a 6.5% chance of hitting.
-- I can still be outdrawn on the river. On the turn, I was still only a 60% favourite to win the hand. However, I can't have known that all players would be moving all-in.

So, now I think about it, I believe a fold was the correct move. If I hit one of my 3 outs, I can still easily be outdrawn on the river. IMHO, this makes my winning of the hand too much of a longshot. Also, the player least likely to pay me off is the fella with the most money. However, I still think it's a borderline decision.

Thx for the views.

snoops

 8)

 Could you please post all the other hands in same position but you missed with? ;) ;D

I'm not the sort of player who plays these sort of hands. It was out of character for me. It all looked so alluring though.  :)

Just thought I'd post this. This is a worse call than the one Snoopy made I think - I'm only drawing to a Jack, but it's my small risk vs massive reward again. Both plyers were rocks - I expected at least one to have an overpair and the other could easily have had 2 pair or trips with their flop betting.

IMO the main aim in a cash game is to bust an entire stack, I know if this Jack comes that I will do just that. If it doesn't I get out.

See what you think.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Hand #8515073-59 at Gloucester (No Limit Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 21/Sep/05 10:05:32
 
     STLATL is at seat 2 with $245.40.
     bman001 is at seat 3 with $304.80.
     wsolimon is at seat 4 with $532.90.
     paired up is at seat 5 with $190.20.
     The button is at seat 4.
     
     paired up posts the small blind of $2.
     STLATL posts the big blind of $4.

     STLATL:  -- --
     bman001:  -- --
     wsolimon:  -- --
     paired up:  Qc Tc

Pre-flop:
 
          bman001 folds.   wsolimon calls.   paired up calls. 
          STLATL raises to $8.   wsolimon calls.   paired up
          calls.   

Flop (board: 5s 9s 8h):
 
          paired up checks.   STLATL bets $24.   wsolimon calls.
           paired up calls.   

Turn (board: 5s 9s 8h Jd):
 
          paired up checks.   STLATL goes all-in for $213.40. 
          wsolimon calls.   paired up goes all-in for $158.20. 
         

River (board: 5s 9s 8h Jd Ad):
 
        (no action in this round)
         

         

Showdown:
 
     STLATL shows As Ac.
     STLATL has As Ac 9s Jd Ad: three aces.
     wsolimon mucks cards.
     (wsolimon has Kh Ks.)
     paired up shows Qc Tc.
     paired up has Qc Tc 9s 8h Jd: straight, queen high.
         

Hand #8515073-59 Summary:
 
     $2 is raked from a total pot of $681.
               $2 is raked from the main pot of $570.60.
               $0 is raked from side pot #1 of $110.40.
     paired up wins the main pot $568.60 with straight, queen high.
     STLATL wins the side pot $110.40 with three aces.
----------------------------------------------------------------

yeah dodgy call i'd say.  This time you've only got 2 other players in, so the most you can make post flop is 2 times your stack which is now $182, so potential gain of $364. 
It costs $24 to see the next card.  Now assuming you're going to muck if you miss the turn and a decent sized bet comes, you've got around a 15 to 1 shot, or three live cards, given the flush draw on the board and the flat caller in the hand.  That equals a loss of around $350 paying to see the card, vs a gain of $364 but this is if BOTH players call all in - pretty unlikely I reckon..... both players need to go all in against you every time, and if this happens you still only make $14......  Also don't think you can assume a Q or T is an out due to min raises preflop and dodgy kicker.
Therefore purely on an EV basis this is the wrong move.
Hope my maths is OK!!

I don't think this is that much worse, you've already said you had at least one of them on an overpair, I'm actually more concerned about one of them having AsKs, wsolimon plays this too passively and in effect helps you win the pot, even though he's bound to lose, he might have had a chance to escape the pot if he'd defined his hand pre-flop or post flop with a tester raise. Minimum raises always look dodgy to me. STL doesn't like the idea of the flush draw, so when it misses he tries to shut the pot, despite the fact if he was actually concerned about that he should have bet more than the pot.

Two things, if wsolimon raises on the flop to $48, do you fold? And if it's the Js on the turn, what do you do then?

Ok on the flop a raise to $48 I cant call. There would in effect be a player behind me - just no way I can call.

If the turn is the J spades I'm not sure. I did have them on other hands (bettor on an overpair - caller on trip 8's, 9's or two pair 8's and 9's - not flush draws) so probably would have played it the same. (Although I cant be 100% sure after the event)

rivered - I knew I only had 3 jacks to hit. A Q or 10 wouldn't have made me commit on the turn. Any card bar a jack and I'm out. I was either going to lose $24 or gain at least a double up according to what hands I had them on. I saw it as small risk vs large reward.