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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: byronkincaid on January 23, 2007, 10:20:00 PM



Title: so many outs
Post by: byronkincaid on January 23, 2007, 10:20:00 PM
Seat 1: migge ($1022.18 in chips)
Seat 2: TIGESHARK ($189.75 in chips)
Seat 3: decadent ($500 in chips)
Seat 4: XnuAA ($728.75 in chips)
Seat 5: borki ($637 in chips)
Seat 6: -Gotcha- ($859.25 in chips)
decadent: posts small blind $2
XnuAA: posts big blind $5
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to -Gotcha- [Qd Qh]
borki: calls $5
-Gotcha-: raises to $25
migge: folds
TIGESHARK: folds
decadent: folds
XnuAA: folds
borki: raises to $100
-Gotcha-: calls $75
----- FLOP ----- [9h Jh 6h]
borki: bets $100
-Gotcha-: calls $100
----- TURN ----- [9h Jh 6h][Ts]
borki: bets $437 and is all-in
-Gotcha-:


borki 12 tables. limp reraise prob = AA,KK or AK. Never seen him do it before tho. I got a flush draw and a straight draw. I'm getting 2/1. I use my fingers and a couple of toes to work out that if he hasn't got a heart I'm getting odds to call. I have 3 seconds left to make a decision.


Title: Re: so many outs
Post by: doubleup on January 23, 2007, 10:53:30 PM
I think I'd let this go, unless he's a nutjob, its very close so it probably doesn't matter either way.  If your ahead it's to AhKx or AxKh, if your behind its to AhAx KhKx, maybe a set of jacks - don't think he has the flush.


Title: Re: so many outs
Post by: Nem on January 23, 2007, 11:05:19 PM
A 12 table rock limp re-raises pf oop and you call with QQ?





Title: Re: so many outs
Post by: Smart Money on January 23, 2007, 11:27:20 PM
You said yourself you have [just about] the odds if he doesn't have a heart.

You don't know if he has the heart or not, therefore it's an easy fold for me.


Title: Re: so many outs
Post by: byronkincaid on January 24, 2007, 12:09:55 AM
A 12 table rock limp re-raises pf oop and you call with QQ?





I like to call :)


Title: Re: so many outs
Post by: Longy on January 24, 2007, 01:23:10 AM
I can't see this being a call to be honest and pokerstove seems to be no longer to do the equity calcs (anyone know what has happened to it).

The pot is currently 407+487-3(rake)= $891

487/ (487+891) = 35% equity  So it is certainly closer than i expected, may even just be a call.

Get a coin and flip it is my advice lol




Title: Re: so many outs
Post by: byronkincaid on January 24, 2007, 01:41:54 AM
You can DL latest Poker Stove here

http://208.109.202.54/ (http://208.109.202.54/)


Title: Re: so many outs
Post by: Longy on January 24, 2007, 03:13:56 AM
Thanks Byron and if your range on him is correct Pokerstove gives you 45% equity making it a clear call, interesting. Even if you put in sets its still 42%.

Learn something everyday


Title: Re: so many outs
Post by: thetank on January 24, 2007, 03:23:23 AM
That's gotta be a call no?


Title: Re: so many outs
Post by: boldie on January 24, 2007, 09:14:35 AM
That's gotta be a call no?

I'm thinking he's got the ace of hearts so that takes out the FD. It's a very close one though...I'd probably fold here.


Title: Re: so many outs
Post by: Highstack on January 24, 2007, 09:33:35 AM
Could have all been avoided passing pre-flop.

You already gave him a range, two of which you are miles behind, on eyou are racing. There is no point playing with a player, holding notes on him, making a read and then ignoring it blindly and just playing the two cards in front of you.

He has already put $100 and his stack is not deep enough to offer you the implied odds of flopping a set.

Post flop he leads for $100 and even if you have his range wrong, what else is he rerasisong with? 12 tabling out of position, even if he was on a slightly lower other QQ, you split,  JJ he now has a set, 99 he has a set and you are beating one hand that is TT. Another chance to pass.

On the turn, you have now committed $200. You mention outs. You don't even know if your outs are live. There is a good chance that he doesn't have the flush, but even TT now has you behind too. What are you 'hoping' he has 2 black 2's? :)


Title: Re: so many outs
Post by: Nem on January 24, 2007, 11:15:54 AM
Could have all been avoided passing pre-flop.

You already gave him a range, two of which you are miles behind, on eyou are racing. There is no point playing with a player, holding notes on him, making a read and then ignoring it blindly and just playing the two cards in front of you.

He has already put $100 and his stack is not deep enough to offer you the implied odds of flopping a set.

Post flop he leads for $100 and even if you have his range wrong, what else is he rerasisong with? 12 tabling out of position, even if he was on a slightly lower other QQ, you split,  JJ he now has a set, 99 he has a set and you are beating one hand that is TT. Another chance to pass.

On the turn, you have now committed $200. You mention outs. You don't even know if your outs are live. There is a good chance that he doesn't have the flush, but even TT now has you behind too. What are you 'hoping' he has 2 black 2's? :)

Two black Queens :D

Good Post


Title: Re: so many outs
Post by: byronkincaid on January 24, 2007, 01:08:12 PM
Would you guys fold kings preflop here then?


Title: Re: so many outs
Post by: boldie on January 24, 2007, 01:11:27 PM
Would you guys fold kings preflop here then?

nope...But I also wouldn't fold QQ pre-flop.


Title: Re: so many outs
Post by: Highstack on January 24, 2007, 01:49:33 PM
Would you guys fold kings preflop here then?

nope...But I also wouldn't fold QQ pre-flop.

Boldie, in that spot with that read, you simply have to pass QQ there.

Byron; I am much less likely to pass KK. The range of hands that you sugested was AA AK KK. Now that you hold KK, you could possibly add Qq, therefore you are only behind to one hand and by jamming pre AK will pass. IF he has AA here, no problem its an expense and reload (apart from the 1 in 5 times that you get lucky and still win). What I am not doing with KK is calling off $100 and leaving $300 back to see an ace high flop and allow QQ to take me off it.

QQ - standard pass
KK - possible jam


Title: Re: so many outs
Post by: boldie on January 24, 2007, 01:51:49 PM
Would you guys fold kings preflop here then?

nope...But I also wouldn't fold QQ pre-flop.

Boldie, in that spot with that read, you simply have to pass QQ there.

Byron; I am much less likely to pass KK. The range of hands that you sugested was AA AK KK. Now that you hold KK, you could possibly add Qq, therefore you are only behind to one hand and by jamming pre AK will pass. IF he has AA here, no problem its an expense and reload (apart from the 1 in 5 times that you get lucky and still win). What I am not doing with KK is calling off $100 and leaving $300 back to see an ace high flop and allow QQ to take me off it.

QQ - standard pass
KK - possible jam

Yeah I guess you're right about having to fold but I don't like it much. Iagree with the last line of your post though..I don't peel off flops with KK ( or QQ for that matter)