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Ill start us off with 2 back to lays.

Had max bet on both on Coral (no runner non bet obv)

Gaspara in the Fred Winter at 16-1. Reliably told that if i runs itll be more like 10-1 or 12-1 so will hopefully be laying off on betfair for a huge free bet.

King Revo in the Jewsons at 8-1. Also told that if it runs itll be more like 5-1 or 6-1 favourite. Not hard to believe as is one of JPs and AP will take the ride.

Hopefully will be able to score myself 2 big free bets. Thats the plan anyway, although it dosent always work out like that. So dont blame me if they stay at the price and lose. They shouldnt though.


Everyone feel free to share any tips or insights on this thread as the festival starts to build up. My serious reseach stars tomorrow. The trends are where its at. Got the Weathearbys betting guide to the festival 2007 ready for action.

The Weatherbys book hasn't been too hot the last couple of years.
I like your King Revo bet,but IMO the Fred Winter is a race best left alone.
Im on Ammereto Rose at 55 in the Supreme,so i hope to get the week off to a good start.

I've got detroit city at 16's for the champion hurdle.Its my only ante post bet this year.

I wish I had done this for this year......

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=5250.0

hahaha..very nice...

Bloody hell Ralph!!!!

I like one in the Fred Winter hurdle called Chaninbar, basically it has form against one of the big triumph hurdle runners (Katchit) earlier in the season and the ran two poor races. It was found to be ill and is very well weighted now they have cured it but the real bonus is this.

It needs to get a penalty to actually get into the race and is due to run in a novice hurdle this Thursday, if it wins that race(which looking at the entries it should) it will be about 8/1-10/1 shot(currently 16/1 with Corals) but the beauty is Corals are betting non runner no bet at the festival so if it doesnt win on Thursday and it doesnt get in the hcap you get your cash back, so I see it as if it does run it will be in single figures and if it doesnt run you get your dosh back.

Thanks

My way desolzen  for the arkle although very short now.    Also My Turn Now for the ballymore properities novices. 

nice shout!

What he said  :)up

Thanks for that guys. Bet365 have it at 14/1. haven't got a corals acc so got on it there.

 ;boltpp;

Gaspara now 8-1 2nd fav and available to lay on betfair at 9-1.

Time to play it safe and get out now and lay off on betfair for a 7 point profit and guarantee a free bet worth £700  :)

COME ON GASPARA, JUST WIN

I have no idea about horses tbh but I backed it at 16/1 also :)

lay it off buddy

You could lay it off if you have a decent betfair account. To guarantee a 7-8 point profit (drifting even shorter).

Or you could let it ride knowing you have immense value, but then theres always a ris of it drifting out agaiin.

ltime to lay it off indeed...I love bets like this

well I only had £10 e.w so its not big money. I might let it ride :)

tenner EW..if you lay it off you would make 70£ on the win only lay off..for a 10£ investment that's not a bad return.

Keep your money in your pocket - at the end of the day there is only one winner. (and you cant back the bookie! ;))

I disagree, if your sad enough to spend a lot of time studying every horse and watching and studying nearly every race you can definetly win in the horse racing game.

yep especially since the opening of the exchanges a while ago. It's no longer just the art of picking a winner..it's now also laying off the losers.

Whatuthink @ 33/1 at Corals and Betfred

Champion Bumper

Just a thought but I've been surprised that L'ami is still 18-1 for the Gold Cup, or is it just me that thinks he's got a great shot of you think Kauto won't jump round?

I think tht is a decent price and a bit of value, but i would rather be on Exotic Dancer or State of Play if Kauto dosent jump.

I would though put L'Ami 4th favourite so its an ok price at 18s, as i cant fancy The Listener

even Beef or Salmon is shorter then L'ami...I don't get that. Although i like Exotic dancer (actually the mrs has been backing it all year) I don't think he'll go aswell as L'ami...State of play ..well I backed him when he won his last race but he's a fragile sort. I reckon L'ami is EW certainty material.

What do you not like about The Listener ?

This is the one horse in the race that has it's preferred ground.

The ground is changing at the moment, and according to the betfair forum, will not go off very soft/heavy at all.

the ground shall be soft no doubt.

i have such a funny feeling about steak and chips -sorry Beef or Salmon!!!!
Will have the ground he likes, and due to this they won't go off as quick as they usually do. He will be staying on at the end when others are crying off.

I know people talk about him not travelling well but he finished 4th to Best Mate in a decent renewal and seems to be in decent health this year, I have a sneeky feeling he may get a place.

I actually fancy Kingscliff to place (roughly 8.0) and a small piece on at 55 for the win.

Beef or Salmon and Kingcliff E/W are my selections  - I don't think Kauto will get round, and think their is no stand out horses which you could say will def place. which leaves a open race

Last time I looked at the going market on Betfair, soft was 1.8 (4/5)

if any of you can be bothered, could you explain laying to me please

Year me too, I know what it is but don't know how to do it ;noflopshomer;

yeah, would work for me too.  I'm a big gambler, but mainly straight bets.

ok Laying;

Laying is essentially you being the bookie and betting others that the horse will NOT win.

If you have backed a horse at 16-1 for ten pounds your profit on that win bet would be 160£ but it has to win.
If the horse is now 8-1 you can lay it off to make a guaranteed profit. (Or atleast not to make a loss)

If you say I am willing to risk 80£ (of my 160£ profit) and will now also get my 10£ back as I will offer someone else 8-1 thatthe horse will win.

This means that no matter what happens you will NOT lose money on the race. Of course it means that if it does win your profit will be less, but it's a great way to guarantee a profit in a race if you can do this with several horses (as most ante-post punters do)
(If you would be willing to risk 88£ of your 160£ profit you would be guaranteed a profit of 1£ if it loses (someone would put 11£ on at 8-1 and your original stake on the win would be 10£ so 1£ profit)

Go to betfair (or any other betting exchange) and choose the lay option. It works the same way as backing a horse but you're betting it to lose.

Thanks for that boldie... :)up

I know people talk about him not travelling well but he finished 4th to Best Mate in a decent renewal and seems to be in decent health this year, I have a sneeky feeling he may get a place.

That was 3 years ago.

Im on Exotic Dancer at 10's but i wouldn't back it at its current price.

My Cheltenham plan:

Lay Detroit City. 5 year olds have an abysmal record in the Champion and this is an incredibly hot race. Will probably have a small each way bet on Hardy Eustace too.

Lay Well Chief. He beat nothing at Newbury after Voy Por Ustedes fell. He is a definite bounce candidate too. Will have to be top of his game to win this. The race has an excellent each way shape and it will take an act of parliament to keep Newmill out of the frame. Each Way bet of the year.

Lay Denman. Something about his jumping worries me. He stops and jumps rather than jumping fluently. He could be a superstar but I feel at about 5/4 he has to be taken on.

Lay Aran Concerto. Noel Meade's festival record is terrible. He's far too short in my book.

Lay Black Jack Ketchum. Will probably start a ridiculously short price even after that terrible run last time.

Then, if I'm profit..

Have the lot on Kauto Star. Quite simply one of the best horses I've ever seen in a substandard Gold Cup. Yes, he makes the odd mistake, but he hasn't looked like falling, he finds a leg. They won't live with him if he stands up.

I am with you on Newmill. I reckon he and L'ami are the two EW horses in the big races.

If kauto jumps round he'll win, there's noone who'll dispute that but his jumping will be severely tested at Cheltenham. I don't know why aran concerto keeps being backed, it is typically one of those races for an upset.

I can't wait for it to start, it'll be a great cheltenham this year

I think that laying all of those is a great idea and you will grind out a decent profit, but im not at all a fan of just banging it all on Kauto Star, who may well fall.

Can't you just lay them all and thhen count your pennies?? I like your call on Newmill also.

I dont understand why people back favourites so vigilantly when you can back one 16-1 or 25-1 or 33-1 winner for a huge profit, a profit which you would have to back about 10 favourites to make.

Id rather just do the research and cream on the outsiders.

LAY Detriot City, Denman, Gungadu, Black Jack Ketchum & Kauto Star.

BACK Well Chief, Strangley Brown, Monolith, Mad Fish & State Of Play.

On the whole winning at gambling is about opposing the crowd.

Everyone knows that Kauto Star is prone to the odd mistake. Hence people are looking to lay him. Hence the price extends. Now, he MAY fall, but I believe the market has got to such a stage that he is grossly overpriced. One of his 2 main rivals was pulled out over the weekend and his price did not contract.

At odds on I would be looking to lay him. At 2/1 I honestly believe he is a great price. I would back him at 6/4. I believe his true price is about evens.

I don't see it as a case of Kauto just having to stand up to win.
Those last 2 furlongs will be unknown territory,and on the likely ground they will take plenty of getting.
Also i cant believe Nichols hasnt run the horse at Cheltenham this season.
We all know how important course form is,nevermind festival form.
Kauto star has neither.

The only reason I mentioned that is because everyone is saying he hates Cheltenham and can't run a half decent race outside of Ireland. He is a older horse, and may look exposed, but I think the race and ground wil lbe suited to him.

Only my opinions of course

beef or salmon will never win the Gold Cup at cheltenham..the horse simply doesn't travel well (he's also already been slaughtered by the best in this years GC) he'll do well in Ireland but not at Cheltenham

He beat the Listener last time out on ground which may be similar to Cheltenham.

He always gets outpaced at Cheltenham, but the ground may help him with this and could negate it to some point.

If he is in the firing line 4 out, he will go reasonably close.

I think he will place, but only for small stakes buddy

16-1 Gaspara is huge after she scooted up in the Imperial Cup at Sandown today.  Will be a short priced favourite if she runs on Tuesday.

I also am a trends man, Paul Jones's Cheltenham guide is essential reading for finding winners at the festival.  I am going on Wednesday and can't wait to see Well Chief cruise to QM chase victory, on his form with Moscow Flyer & Azertiop he only has to jump round, don't fear the bounce, he has been laid out for this. 

The 4 days of the festival are the best racing all year, cannot wait.

Gaspara 3-1 for the Fred Winter on Tuesday...

Paul Jone's Cheltenham guide, available at all good book shops? and some crap ones too?

amerto rose in the 1st to get thing going  and a mad lucky 15 amereto rose 3/1 aranleigh 6/1 punjabi 10/1 new field 8/1 and if they all win i am going on Holiday with the £4799 for a £1 lucky 15 (back to work on the monday then)

She looks a tiny horse, and had a very hard race today (under pressure miles from home... McCoy magic got her home)

I'm very doubtful she could take another hard race. I will be looking to lay her if she's short.

Bit worried itll run in the County instead coz Pipe gets an £80,000 bonus if it wins the county and the race it won yesterday. It was about 50/50 last night.

So i laid some more off at 4.7. If it dosent run in the Fred Winter i win £40 prof. if it runs and dosent plae i lose £60, if it places i win £160, but if it wins i get £700.


As far as the Kim Muir goes, I backed Character Building at 16-1 which is now 12s, but only as a back to lay.....I like the look of Direct Flight who steamed home last year in 4th at Cheltenham. Not sure whether he will find enough off the bridle though if Carberry takes the ride. Hmmm.

Gaspara is not entered in the county hurdle, she is entered in the Fred Winter & the 2m 4f novice hurdle on wedsnesday (the old sun alliance hurdle).  Pipe gets the bonus if she wins ANY race at the festival, so I would be amazed if she didn't take her chance in the Fred Winter, as long as she came out of the Sandown race well.  Pipe will not want to take on Aran concerto and the older novices on Wednesday.

Gaspara will definetly go for the Fred Winter (assuming fit) and I would be amazed if he doesn't hack up. The Pipe's have planned this for a while now and whatever they plan ussually works.

I didnt mean the County Hurdle you are correct. Id just been researching that race so typed it.

Im v happy to see Gaspara at 3-1 in places now, you all should have backed it when i tipped it at the start of this thread at 16-1  ::)

Ill start a new thread tomorrow afternoon fopr everyone to discuss the Tuesdays races.

Im getting v excited.

I did (well 14-1) cheers!!!

Me too, the best racing of the year, cannot wait!!!

check out h**************** they sent some mean tips last year at cheltenham.




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