blonde poker forum

A random thought entered my head recently when waiting for 1 of my many flight connections around Europe. The odds of hitting a Royal Flush are over 1.5m to 1 approximately. Since playing poker in November 2005 I have hit 2 Royal Flushes. The odds of winning a major prize in the lottery are approximately 13m to 1 (UK standard lottery). Therefore on that count I have to hit around 6-7 more Royal Flushes before I get to the kind of odds comparable to a major lottery win.

I have been doing approx £5 a draw for the past 8 years and have still not won more than £100.00.However using my approximations I should (based on probability) hit a big win within 12 years. So it will cost me approx £520 x 20 (years) = £10,400 to get a possible bumper return. (Or an opportunity cost of -£10,400 savings over the 20 year period).

My guess is that I will probably hit 6-7 more Royal Flushes before hitting any Major Lottery Win.

Have any blondietes out there hit more than 8 Royal Flushes and had a major lottery win??

ps Ironside - I posted this in General but feel free to reassign to a different category

Greg

Have any blondietes out there hit more than 8 Royal Flushes and had a major lottery win??

LOL Doubt it very much :D

I thought the odds of a Royal Flush were about 650,000 to 1.

Had 3 anyway, no decent lottery wins yet.

one thing your forgetting

how many hands of poker do you play a year compared to how many attepmts at the lottery do you have

if you play same amount of hands as you have attempts at lottery then you a lucky person

but i would imagine that you will find that if you played the lottery ever week for the 50000 years you would still be lucky to win it

649,739 to 1 (Googled it)

Bugger - that means I need about 18 more of them.

Point of the post was to show whether it was worth chancing £10,400 over a 20 year term on the off chance of hitting a major scoop. Over that period of time the money invested is relatively unnoticed and as I have no expensive habits like drugs,smoking etc.

Why not chance the amount over less year?  If it's the amount that's key, buy £1000 every week of lottery tickets and with in 10 weeks, you could be a millionaire :D

Why wait 20 years?

I did a bit more digging and worked out that 2 tabling on average 2 hours a day for a year would allow you to play 87600 hands. My guess is I have played approximately 100,000 hands since Nov 2005.

Therefore ... (what follows is extract from site on odds)...

There are 2,598,960 various poker hands in a pack of fifty-two-card deck. If one player is dealt 100,000 hands in one lifetime, he will never hold more than 4% of all the possible hands.

Below is an estimation table of the number of pat (on the first five cards) poker hands that a single player can get in a lifetime.

Hands  Approx. In One Lifetime  
Royal Flush  0.15  
Straight Flush  1.4  
4 of a Kind  25  
Full House  170  
Flush  200  
Straight  400  
3 of a Kind  2,000  
Two Pair  5,000  
One Pair  40,00  
No Pair  50,000


So on this count I have already lucked my way above the Royal Flush quota and have definitely had more than 2 straight flushes (probably 10-15) - So I believe starting hand selection and continuation play on the flop has a big part to play on what major cards you hit in games of poker. So the skill element weighs more heavily than the luck element in lotteries.

Either way you got to be a luckbox, which im not.
I havnt had a Royal Flush and I havnt won the lottery, in fact i do not do the lottery.

You can't just go around randomly adding or mulitplying probabilities to each other. That's not how it works.

It doesn't make any sense whatsoever to deduce from "The probability that I hit a royal flush is 1/1,500,000" that "The probability that I hit 10 royal flushes is 1/15,000,000" -- this is completely flawed for many reasons.

Suppose you are an internet pro (which you probably aren't) and four-table for 40 hours/week... that's about 8000 hands/week.  If the probability of hitting a royal flush is 1/650,000, then you will hit one every 81 weeks.

Suppose you buy 1,000 lottery tickets per week.  If the probability of winning the jackpot is 1/15,000,000, you will win once every 288 years.

Your return on £1 spent on the lottery is about 2p-3p.

I wouldn't be so rude as to hazard a guess of your return on £1 from playing poker.

Another interesting odds fact for you.

Did you know, you have more chance of guessing a complete strangers telephone number than winning the lottery!!

Still wanna spend that £1 ?

Give me 5 lucky dips!

Once the jackpot becomes 14 million plus, then does it become +ev to play?
Probably not, because of the split pot possibilty?

When playing internet poker, the chance of hitting 10 Royal Flushes in a day is approximately 3/1.

Obviously, the odds are far greater in a live game when it's not rigged.

This is assuming that he see's every hand to the end - an assumption that is clearly not true.

Also, is this 650,000 value conditioned on the fact that he has certain cards, i.e. suited or connectable above T?

One small point is that you cannot predict hitting a royal flush (unless he gives you grief in Brighton) or winning the lottery.
As each hand starts (or lottery draw) the odds reset from the previous hand/draw.
So you cannot say that if i play the requisite amount of hands the odds reduce until it happens, they never change.

It's like tossing a coin because you hit heads 500 times in a row there is no reason to think that tails are bound to come up next spin, the odds remain 50/50.

BTW i have had 1 royal flush (using both cards) in 4 years.

Right, of course the odds 'reset' with every deal... it is perfectly possible that I could get a royal flush today and tomorrow despite 81 weeks not passing.

But in the same way that my mathematical expectation is one head for every two flips of a coin, on average you will hit a royal flush every 81 weeks (assuming you play 8000 hands/week and never fold).

I don't know what the chances of hitting a royal flush are in 'real life' (ie considering the play of the game, I might fold a hand that would have become a royal flush if only I'd stayed in, etc), but it would be normal to hit a royal flush every few years or so -- but you cannot expect to ever win the lottery jackpot (unless you spend £1000s/week and live till you're 350).  It is silly to contemplate that the likelihood of these two events happening are comparable.

The concept of being 'due' a big win after playing the lottery for 20 years is risible.  If you spend £10,000 on lottery tickets, your total winnings will be in the £100s.  Keep at it though... at least you are funding opera houses etc for the other half.

The 650000/1 is based on 5 card stud i believe, in hold em it is more likely. As in effect we are picking 5 from 7, if my memory of combination and permutations is right this cuts the odds by about 21 i think which is (7!/ (5!*2!)). So about 30000/1 this is by the river.

Does anyone know the odds of getting A A A as a starting hand in 7 card Stud.

I was just dealt it and dont know how proud to feel.

Yes, 650,000/1 is the odds of hitting a Royal Flush with just 5 cards. (I.e. the probability of flopping a Royal in Hold 'Em.)

I've had 7-8 Royals in the last 2 years online, but I've played over 1,000,000+ hands over that time (6-8 tables x 4-5 hours/day)

Your actual probabilty of hitting a Royal is 30,000/1 x "the subjective probability that you will have seen a flop and stayed in the hand until the river" and this will obvious depend on several factors (pre-flop requirements, post-flop "looseness", opponents, number of players at table, cash/tournament, etc.)

Therefore, I would guess that somewhere around 150,000/1 would be a good estimate for most players' chances of hitting a Royal on any one particular hand.

As someone else has already stated, the initial question is based on flawed assumptions and so makes little sense.

FYP.

Standard.

Im sure the odds of hitting a royal flush in hold em is 480,000/1

With 5 cards:

20/52 * 4/51 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 1/48 = 649,739/1

Divide by 21 for 7 cards.

Including area code??

By the way do you play as M3MONSTER on PS?? Location Ilford?

Interesting to see the reactions of some people to the thread. I think luck has a huge part to play whether it be poker or the lottery. I genuinely believe that some people are luckier than others too. In poker getting lucky includes pushing at the right time,winning the first big confrontation in a tournament, avoiding confrontations with bigger or same size stacks on coin flips, catching chased draws, slow playing the flopped nuts in trap situations etc etc.

My biggest win came about from amassing a large chip stack mid tournament and then playing TAG and small stack bully poker from the last third onwards. I know I have a lot of work to do on the mathematics side of my poker and that is what I will be working on during the next few months.

;-)

I think the precise odds of getting a Royal in 7 cards are 30939-1

This is based on there being 133784560 combos of 7 cards - in this there are the 4 royals plus 1071 other 2 card combos giving a probability of .00003232.

Thank god for a good calculation when stars goes down and the Tvs crap.

It's true that some people have had better luck than others in poker, and life in general- but that's all.

All the best with your progress, but if you believe that some people are luckier than others then you are handicapping yourself.

This is of course a load of bollocks... out of every £1 you spend, 50p goes into the prize fund; so your return on every £1 is, duh, 50p.


Well, a more likely explanation is that everyone is equally lucky, but some people seem luckier because of the variance.

Appreciate your point of view. I certainly wouldnt want to handicap myself particularly against strong players who have been playing a lot longer than me. I am still way ahead of the game due to some large tournament placings so if I have already had my share of the luck then it will be up to my thirst for knowledge and enjoyment for the game that will take me to the next level - gl to you too . See you on the tables.

Stop playing  Qh Th people!

you just run into a royal?

What s the probability that 6 meercats with knuckle dudster can beat up.............oh wait, we done that one already.

No, just pointing out a fallacy with the 31,000 to 1 concept.

A lot of times you would have hit your Royal, you will have folded pre-flop. (or on the flop even, if it's a runner runner royal)

Odds of a Royal Flush getting hit are dramatically improved if you lock him in a room with Kev and RED-DOG.

Define big.

Big would be top or 2nd top prize. The luck element would come in if you hit the top payout if it had accumulated to rollover status after a draws. Big would be £1m +.

Don't know where you get the big win in 10 years stat.
Here's the real numbers....

6 numbers
Jackpot
13,983,815 to 1 
Once every 52,783.9 years if you buy 5 tickets a week (260 a year)


5 numbers + bonus ball
£100k
2,330,635 to 1 
Once every 8,964.0 years if you buy 5 tickets a week
 
5 numbers
£1.5k
55,491 to 1 
Once every 213.4 years  if you buy 5 tickets a week

Beg your pardon, didn't see that it's a fiver on Wednesday too.

So halve all those numbers.

Jackpot every 26,392 years
£100k every 4,482 years
£1,500 every 106 years (but you can win that down at the local £20 rebuy)

Ah, I think I understand now. This is actually pretty clever of you to non-negatively iterate the retro-odds, and by k-diversifying the probability forest, you demonstrate the Markov benefit paradigm of positioning a considered random and statistically myopic disequilibria muffin.

I don't completely get it though... could you explain the maths slightly slower and in more detail -- I mean, can anyone who has spent £10,000 on the lottery over 20 years expect a £1m+ payout, or is it just you?

Easy tiger. We all make mistakes.

As a mad estimate, the odds of hitting a Royal in practice (you fold  Jh 4s before  Th Qh Kh Ahrt hit on the board etc.) might be similar to the 55,491 to 1 of hitting 5 numbers on the lottery.

Of course, you're maybe more likely to play 20,000+ hands a year, rather than 520 (which is the amount of lottery tickets bought). So you'd be 40 times more likely to hit a Royal Flush in any given year than hitting 5 numbers in the lotto.

(http://images.inmagine.com/168nwm/creatas/cr15162/cr15162030.jpg)

So much angst... I certainly dont expect to win but can afford to have the outgoing on the off chance the experiment works. Would rather have a shared risk portfolio including property, savings,shares and hopefully a long term positive poker bankroll to aid a long term goal of days back on Sandy beaches.

Reward doesnt come without risk and I dare say a high proportion of people on the forum play the lottery even if they know the odds are well stacked against them.

True, you can't put a price on dreams. So long as you don't go overboard on the tickets, there's nowt wrong with playing the lottery.

I got dealt a Royal Flush on xmas exe 2005 on Ladbrokes....in 5 card stud!
Won about $10 and hand auto-mucked so the other players didn't even believe me.

I remeber my first royal, before I'd even touched holdem.

On Spin Palace, Jacks or Better Video Poker, won myself £1,000. (which kept me in online mug gambling for a couple of months)

Not me.

Syme, keep it civill please, it's a fun thread.

...of which, I seem to recall, about 30p is paid out n Prize money......

The Lottery's PR machine is nothing short of scandalous.

Oi!!
You knicked my joke.
What a f*****g liberty! :-)

Breakdown of the lottery pound.....

50p goes to the prize pool (Syme was correct earlier)
28p goes to good causes
12p goes to the government in lottery duty
5p goes to the newsagent who sells the ticket
4.5p goes to Camelot for "operating expenses" (bit dodgy this)
0.5p goes to Camelot's shareholders.


The lottery boasts that with 40p in every pound (28p + 12p) they return a higher proportion of lottery revenue to society than any other major lottery operator in the world.

And if your Lottey Ticket loses, youi have lost your £1.

Whereas, in the good old days of Premium Bonds, when you failed to win, you still had your £1......and it went in to the next draw, & the next one, forever. If, after going into 50 or 60 draws, you had not won, you can get your £1 back!

Which is the better value?

Whereas, in the good old days of Premium Bonds, when you failed to win, you still had your £1......and it went in to the next draw, & the next one, forever. If, after going into 50 or 60 draws, you had not won, you can get your £1 back!

Which is the better value?
[/quote]


nsansi is still going and they now have a 2nd jackpot of £1m each month. By investing here you are sacrificing interest but gaining on the wins from month to month. I use this scheme as one of my saving pots. The better value is definitely the Premium bond scheme - but still the 'dream' of snagging a decent windfall is there for everyone to take a punt at.

nsansi is still going and they now have a 2nd jackpot of £1m each month. By investing here you are sacrificing interest but gaining on the wins from month to month. I use this scheme as one of my saving pots. The better value is definitely the Premium bond scheme - but still the 'dream' of snagging a decent windfall is there for everyone to take a punt at.
[/quote]

It just astonishes me that people cannot see this, & fall for the Lottery Marketing. Does the Lottery fall under the auspices of the Gaming Commission? Surely not, if it did, I'd expect them to say "The Lottery is poor value", exactly in the manner that they "protect players from themselves" in Blackjack.

It just astonishes me that people cannot see this, & fall for the Lottery Marketing. Does the Lottery fall under the auspices of the Gaming Commission? Surely not, if it did, I'd expect them to say "The Lottery is poor value", exactly in the manner that they "protect players from themselves" in Blackjack.
[/quote]


I am glad I did this post as it has really helped evaluate where I am chucking money away. Next is to stop the holes in my poker game - cheers Tikay.

Make that 8-9 Royals.... :)

Full Tilt Poker Game #2070639710: Table Jade Hills - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:34:36 ET - 2007/03/25
Seat 1: juicyjc ($217.95)
Seat 2: NicoretteGum ($217.15)
Seat 3: El Patron 222 ($195.35)
Seat 4: lildavid22 ($97.65)
Seat 5: PokerFace B ($242.45)
Seat 6: JHarr1219 ($200)
Seat 7: ctalb70057 ($104.10)
Seat 8: AFink93 ($97.15)
Seat 9: Narena ($229.55)
AFink93 posts the small blind of $1
Narena posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Narena [Jd Qd]
juicyjc folds
NicoretteGum folds
El Patron 222 folds
lildavid22 folds
PokerFace B folds
JHarr1219 has 15 seconds left to act
JHarr1219 folds
ctalb70057 calls $2
AFink93 calls $1
Narena checks
*** FLOP *** [Ad Jh Td]
AFink93 checks
Narena checks
ctalb70057 checks
*** TURN *** [Ad Jh Td] [Kd]
AFink93 checks
Narena checks
ctalb70057 bets $6
AFink93 folds
Narena raises to $12
ctalb70057 calls $6
*** RIVER *** [Ad Jh Td Kd] [Qs]
Narena bets $28
ctalb70057 calls $28
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Narena shows [Jd Qd] (a Royal Flush)
ctalb70057 mucks
Narena wins the pot ($83) with a Royal Flush

And another.... :)

Full Tilt Poker Game #2549579819: Table Los Padres - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:43:31 ET - 2007/05/31
Seat 1: GradHooker ($0), is sitting out
Seat 2: full_tilting ($769.05)
Seat 3: Narena ($303.40)
Seat 4: deadmonie4u ($199.60)
Seat 5: Metr ($40)
Seat 6: Kramzy ($200)
Seat 7: skeletor13 ($64.40)
Seat 8: NaMoo9 ($579.20)
Seat 9: directinglife ($56)
deadmonie4u posts the small blind of $1
Metr posts the big blind of $2
Kramzy posts $2
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Narena [Qs Ts]
Kramzy checks
skeletor13 folds
NaMoo9 folds
directinglife folds
full_tilting folds
GradHooker adds $200
Narena calls $2
GradHooker has returned
deadmonie4u calls $1
Metr checks
*** FLOP *** [ Ahrt Ks  Aspades]
deadmonie4u checks
Metr checks
Kramzy checks
Narena checks
*** TURN *** [ Ahrt Ks  Aspades] [7c]
deadmonie4u checks
Metr checks
Kramzy checks
Narena bets $6
deadmonie4u calls $6
Metr folds
Kramzy folds
*** RIVER *** [ Ahrt Ks  Aspades 7c] [Js]
deadmonie4u bets $12
Narena raises to $56
deadmonie4u folds
Uncalled bet of $44 returned to Narena
Narena shows [Qs Ts] (a Royal Flush)
Narena wins the pot ($41.80)

 ;sleep;  Royal Flushes are so passe.....

Full Tilt Poker Game #2600795524: Table Vespertina - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:21:02 ET - 2007/06/06
Seat 1: tpack69 ($155.70)
Seat 2: Barney Gumble ($274.10)
Seat 3: Krusty Clown ($56.25)
Seat 4: jcm694 ($215.95)
Seat 5: Timbilo ($40)
Seat 6: taintpatrol ($291.30)
Seat 7: The Guok ($253)
Seat 8: ericberen ($192.90)
Seat 9: Narena ($200)
taintpatrol posts the small blind of $1
The Guok posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Narena [Td Jd]
ericberen folds
Narena calls $2
tpack69 folds
Barney Gumble folds
Krusty Clown folds
jcm694 calls $2
Timbilo folds
taintpatrol calls $1
The Guok checks
*** FLOP *** [Ad Qd Kd]
taintpatrol checks
The Guok checks
Narena checks
jcm694 checks
*** TURN *** [Ad Qd Kd] [2s]
taintpatrol checks
The Guok checks
Narena bets $6
jcm694 folds
taintpatrol folds
The Guok folds
Uncalled bet of $6 returned to Narena
Narena shows [Td Jd] (a Royal Flush)
Narena wins the pot ($7.60)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $8 | Rake $0.40
Board: [Ad Qd Kd 2s]
Seat 1: tpack69 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Barney Gumble didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: Krusty Clown didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: jcm694 folded on the Turn
Seat 5: Timbilo (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: taintpatrol (small blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 7: The Guok (big blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 8: ericberen didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: Narena collected ($7.60)

have you bought a ticket for the lottery this week ;-)

3rd one in the last 2 weeks.... :)

Full Tilt Poker Game #2644098602: Table Stearman - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:37:42 ET - 2007/06/12
Seat 1: gtjack77 ($192.30)
Seat 2: TheSnake-28 ($324.15)
Seat 3: Narena ($286.25)
Seat 4: JoeChicago7 ($137.15), is sitting out
Seat 5: al_lupner ($200)
Seat 6: z85kra ($475.15)
Seat 7: Tha Wizzard ($136.25)
Seat 8: LBHOLDEM ($59.30)
Seat 9: Cold 4 AU ($70.70)
Narena posts the small blind of $1
al_lupner posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Narena [Kh Ts]
z85kra has 15 seconds left to act
z85kra folds
Tha Wizzard folds
LBHOLDEM folds
Cold 4 AU calls $2
gtjack77 folds
TheSnake-28 folds
Narena calls $1
al_lupner checks
*** FLOP *** [Ahrt Qh Th]
Narena checks
al_lupner has 15 seconds left to act
al_lupner bets $5
Cold 4 AU calls $5
Narena has 15 seconds left to act
Narena has requested TIME
Narena calls $5
*** TURN *** [Ahrt Qh Th] [2h]
Narena checks
al_lupner checks
Cold 4 AU checks
*** RIVER *** [Ahrt Qh Th 2h] [Jh]
Narena bets $10
al_lupner folds
Cold 4 AU folds
Uncalled bet of $10 returned to Narena
Narena mucks
Narena wins the pot ($19.95)

you make more royals than i make pairs

amazing thats 3 in very quick succession.