blonde poker forum

Not a Bad Beat - in fact, I got lucky to even split the Pot, but interesting, nonetheless.

We are playing 4 card Omaha High cash at Brighton. Loose table, blinds £5-£5, £200 minimum sitdown, most of us had £500 to £1k in front of us by this stage.

It's all family Pots pre-flop, there had been a pot-building £15 by someone, called by a handful of us.

By the turn, the board was looking like this.....

  6s 8d  Td 4s

I was holding 7-9, the temporary nuts, but I had no redraws at all.

I make it £120, Paul Parker makes it "with £400" (approx) short-cashed Tony Bolton pushes all-in for about £250 I think. I have £430, roughly, left in font of me.

I feel that Paul has any of these hands..........

Same as mine.

Same as mine with straight redraw.

Spade flush draw.

Diamond flush draw.

Both flush draws.

Set (not very probable).

He could also be on a complete bluff, or semi-bluff with the higher straight draw.

Deep down, I put him on the nut straight, same as me, with one flush redraw.

I debate passing - openly, as I am all-in if I call. Tony Bolton says "I called for value". Paul just smiles.....as he does. No info to be gleaned there, then. The Pot is somewhere around £1,700 if I call. A lot to win, a lot to lose, a bad call if I am SURE I am just calling to split. But I'm not THAT sure. And what would Flushy say if he found out I passed the nuts.......?

Anyway, I call, Paul says (not showing his hand yet) "you don't wanna see diamonds".....and I get the fright of my life when the river pairs the 4! (offsuit).

Tony mucks - hand not shown, & indeed Paul & I split the loot.

And in fact, on examaning Paul Parker's holding, I was in worse shape than I thought - he had the flush draw AND the higher straight re-draw. But I got lucky, held on, & chopped the pot, splitting, in effect, the pre-flop money & Tony Bolton's £200 odd. So yes, I stood to lose a lot more than I ended up winning.

The concensus afterwards was that it was a bad call by me, & I don't argue with that.

But that's with the benefit of hindsight - with the info I had on the turn, would YOU call all-in there?

Is folding the nuts ever a good play?  Please excuse me if this is a daft question

To me, it's a good question, hence the Post.

I think once the smarter boys reply, we may find that, yes, folding the nuts can be a good thing. Sometimes......

If you like money playing Omaha, then yes it is at times.

in a comp i would proberly fold but in cash i think its a call

Think I'm with Jock here.

Moneys not deep enough to consider folding. QQ in a holdem game however.....................

Need to clarify the figures a bit, there is 120 in there (i assume) you lead for 120, paul calls the 120 and sets you in for another £430 (nearly) TB (legend) calls the 250, so you are looking at £1040 in the pot and you have to call £430 more (the figures don't add up to the amount you mentioned before so i might be missing something)

So £1040 in the pot £430 to call, Paul has the nuts here approx 99% of the time, you are calling £430 to win £520, you have to tie at least 45% of the time for this to be profitable my guess would be that TB is sitting on something like top set or a combo draw so his equity doesnt make up the 55% (even if it does there is still a sizeable side pot) so the question is does PP have a big enough redraw to reduce your chances to just 45%, the answer is no way, he probably does have a re-draw but it is never going to be big enough for you to pass in this spot. You were probably up against the worst possible situation with Paul having i assume J97x with diamonds and TB on the set in this spot assuming there aren't lots of blockers you are 41% to tie, but that is about as bad as it can get, and as i already said you are playing a sizeable side pot with PP.

Basically, you made a good call. Although if the stacks were slightly deeper (even by just another £100-£150) you would be making a very marginal decision.

great post flushy.............more of these analysis' please

what did he say?

I think it was a well done Tikay post?

Good stuff flushy  ;hattip;

Yes.

E.g.

NLH, after turn: Td Jd Qs Ks

You are deep. Pot is very small, and you're raised all-in by someone who has you covered.

Would you call with, say,  Ac  Tc ?

Flushy's analysis is, it seems to me. exccellent, thank you.

However.....

......I chatted about this with Jim Reid tonight, he's a pretty tidy Omaha player.

Hs view was that I should NOT have Raised on the turn, better to chack-call Paul Parkers Raises, & if any of the scare cards come (which was more than half the damn pack) I can get off the hand.

The only problem I see with that is that, even if Paul "misses", he may nick the Pot if one of the 4 redraws hits (spade flush, diamiond flush, higher straight or paired board). As I would not know which one he had hit - or indeed IF he'd hit - he'd be able to bet me off the hand if ANY scare card arrived.

But Jim's thought process appeals to me as the better way to play the hand.

It's an option but betting the nuts on the turn is rarely going to be that big a mistake.

the problem with this thinking is that there is a guy allin that has declared he is calling for value, so if a scare card hits the river that paul doesn't have, he cant really bluff a dry pot because its highly likely that the allin guy has the very hand that paul is representing, plus if you do just call on the turn, you are representing a draw yourself... so i think his plan to bluff danger rivers that he doesn't have is fraught with downside and doesn't contain much upside.. and if he is the type of guy to bluff scare card rivers with dry/small side pots, then it probably means he isnt restricted to only ever getting it in on the turn with the nuts, so like mortons fork, whatever style he has, its correct to get it in on the turn.

True, thank you.

"Mortons fork" - not heard that saying in years. "between the devil & the deep blue sea".....!

Yes. Most NLHE players are exceptionally bad and i wouldnt be suprised to see 2 pair out there :). But not above $2/$4.

Errrm, JC just said he thinks my numbers are wrong, i had a quick look and i have made a rather silly error.

In my attempts to simplify the matter when i split the pot in 2 i failed to split tikay's call into 2.

Tikay you need to win 29% of the pot to make this a +EV call, given we already assume that you are never scooping this means you have to tie a lot more often than i earlier mentioned. Now that we know what Tony had i ran the hands and you had 33% equity in the pot so it was a marginally correct call, however if we assume the set scenario for TB then your equity is only 19%.

Of course you also need to think how often Paul has the bare nuts as well.

Sorry for the earlier mistake and shame on all of you for spotting it.....

Thanks James.

The specifics are not important, I have learned from this, & next time, I'll keep the pot small by check-calling..