blonde poker forum

A look at the “Gamblers Fallacy”.

In a past life, fifteen years ago now, I studied statistics. I studied statistics in economics and studied so much that I got to call myself a doctor and this past weekend a few innocent comments by players at a tournament got me to thinking of the unspoken links between what I studied then and what I informally study now.

In a break in proceedings on Saturday someone said to me

"I am due. One big pot and I will get above my starting stack again"

Another said to me

“I think I will just fold Jacks pre-flop next time. They are never any good for me”

When you get frustrated and are not catching starting hands, do you anticipate a change of cards that you know must be certain? Do you take more risks when you are behind in a cash game? Are you wary of "unlucky hands" or always play a "favourite" hand? This is all part of the Gambler's Fallacy believing past events influence future events in games of chance, or to use current parlance for poker “mixed games of skill and chance”. 

The Gambler's Fallacy (also called the Monte Carlo Fallacy) is at the heart of all gambling systems. If a coin hits heads ten times in a row, the odds on heads the next flip are still fifty-fifty. The Gambler's Fallacy is believing the coin or the dice or the cards have "a memory". It is in essence the reason casinos exist!

Benny Binion, ever the great showman and innovator, used to make a fortune on the Streets of Vegas. He had ten cent craps on a table outside his casino front door. It was crowded and manic and everyone had to really watch their own bets. All around the table were the system players writing down what the dice rolled and keeping a log. If a man noted an absence of boxcars, twelve, then he would muscle his way through the elbow to elbow crowd to start betting on twelve. Such games helped found the empire that built the WSOP as we know it today. The Gambler's Fallacy is believing that anything is "due" in gambling.

Part of the Gambler's Fallacy has to do with the mystique of the "rush". A fast run of good hands does happen and it is not all that statistically rare. It is called a statistical random walk. The Gambler's Fallacy overtakes poker players in their daily thinking, "I have to get even." It is the reason for the change of plans in starting hands and the amount of time spent at the table in a cash game. It is what we call "tilt" but it is more complicated in that a perfectly calm person can have illogical thoughts. The best people to play against are those that believe that they are "due" to hit and are trying to get even. The odds are they won't get even.

 9d 3d

 ;whistle;

If everyone had an inate understanding of how numbers work, Las Vegas would still be nothing town in the middle of nowhere that we wouldn't have heard of.

sponsored player told me he would much rather reraise or call a raise with JT and QT suited than JJ cos they are better drawing hands.

course, having done the same, I've come to think that economic theory understimates just how bad (or non-rational) we are when to comes to probability or statistics (and also misses out on the utility that we gain or lose just from being in a position of uncertainty, nevermind expected value)

Either way I don't think we need to look further than the fortune the national lottery makes (aka the worst bet you can get your hands on) ;)


I find this one particularly interesting tighty, because I still suffer from it. J9s is a particularly "unlucky" hand for me, even if I'm getting in cheap. I imagine the reason that it feels unlucky is because I am particularly bloody inept at playing it... so dodging "unlucky" hands might be a good thing, if its a clue to a dodgy area of your game. Similarly I often hear people saying how unlucky they are with bulelts or AK - perhaps thats a sign they aren't playing em well.


I love the way at the roullete table casino's give away a free pen, and a card with numbers on so you can keep track... positively encouraging the ol' gamblers fallacy - its an indication to the naive punter that the wheel does have a memory.

Now here's a question - Is this unethical?

If the punters were doing it anyway, then no. If the Casinos introduced this to led people into it, then yes.

Anyway - good to hear from you Jammer - you making it to bB4?

Heya mr. paradise! Aye, been away a fair while. Joined a band, and that (with work of course) has been eating up my spare time, so the poker (and blonde) has suffered. Good to see some familiar faces still around though ;)

Saw snoopy and dana last week, who've been encouraging me to get down to the blondebash. Would be a shame to miss it, so will try and convince the mrs. (should be amenable given her pretty good form in the girls headsup team last year).

And anyway gotta be some revenge on the cards after my team getting pipped (read thumped) in the final last year...

At least you held your end up, you had nothing to beat mind you.  ;whistle;

(http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=14488.0;attach=7795;image)

Happy Days! hope to see you there

Bloody hell my hair was long. Gipsy jammer.

Heh, good night that was (and our headsup was a good game if i remember... but then I don't remember much given we had all been drinkin for about 24 hours solid).

 4h  Kh

 ;whistle;



 4h  Kh Nutzzzz

Notice also the commentary which accompanies the lottery draw.

"The first ball out is 19 - that's its 78th appearance in the midweek draw and its 160th in total. The second ball is 34 - we've not seen that ball for 11 weeks. Next it's 6 - that's the third draw in a row for that one"

Meanwhile people at home are noting this - half of them pick 6 next week because its on form, the other half avoid it because 'its not due out again for a while'.

Well there isn't really much else they can say when doing the commentary on a live lottery draw.............

"The first ball out is 19 - thats the age i lost my virginity to the married woman at number 34. The second ball out is 34 - wow, what a coincidence i've just mentioned that number and there it is, please dont ring up saying the draw is fixed - it is live honest! Next it's 6, thats how many days i've got to wait before i get my results back from the clinic - fingers crossed just like our lottery symbol"

Interesting read tighty.

I sometimes think there is something to the "lucky hands" theory. I have various hands I regard as "lucky" for me.

I feel positive when I play them, remembering occasions when I've had success with them and anticipating a beneficial result this time round.

I'm not one to put much store in lucky charms and heather, usually preferring cold, hard facts and numbers to guide me. But with certain hands, I know I have had good results before with them, so I go out and play them confidently, which no doubt increases my chances of success with them.

So the idea that these hands are lucky for me becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This is great because it allows me to rationalise playing some right old kippery hands under the pretext that there is a scientific basis for it.

Super!

I'd watch that!

Not entirely unconnected.

I do despise Noel Edmond's results orientated spiel after a deal has been struck.

"Let's see if you made a good deal or a bad deal by seeing what random amounts you would have chosen in the remaining boxes"

Look, just because you've got a dead mouse on your chin it doesn't mean you can just talk c*** whenever you feel like it

19!!!!!!!!!!!

the teenage years are supposed to be the best of your life!!!

That guy must have been a frustrated teenager, you'd think he was too preoccupied with studying but he grew up to be a lottery announcer so fuck knows what he was doing from the age of 13-19 that involved not having sex!!!

dungeons and dragons no doubt ::)

I will call your cleric and raise you an orc with 2 hobgoblins........

The Guardian TV reviewer Charlie Brooker calls it 'a gameshow based on the Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics.'

http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguide/columnists/story/0,,1696369,00.html (http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguide/columnists/story/0,,1696369,00.html)

I find that a couple of aces is a fairly lucky hand.  Especially if they're soooted.

Interesting subject. In the back of one of Scott Adams Dilbert books (I think it's 'The Joy of Work') there is an unexpectedly serious section about luck. It's a bit long-winded but basically he starts by suggesting that time is an illusion, rather the universe consists of multiple still frames, where every possibility is played out, and the conscious (soul, whatever) jumps between them like pages in a flick book. He argues that people who regard themselves as lucky and expect lucky outcomes steer their way onto the pages that match those expectations.

He's got another short book in a similar vein and best of all its free, worth a read if you like that sort of thing.
http://fringe.davesource.com/Fringe/Entertainment/Books/Scott_Adams.Gods_Debris.pdf

Cards have no memory, nor do dice, or the wheel.

Ok, so why does a given STT player play off 100 buy-ins?
If he plugs away for ages, winning steady money, and withdrawing the excess to buy cigarettes and DVDs, all is fine and good.

He has a 50 buy-in downswing one week. Unlikely, but always possible. If his edge per tournament is small, it's an inevitability to happen eventuially.

No problem right, he has a bankroll to accomodate such a swing.
But he now technically only playing off 50 instead of 100 buy-ins, so he no longer has this bankroll. Although the odds say he'll recover, he is just as likely to undergo a 50 buy-in downswing as he was this time last week (where he did go on to lose 50 buy-ins)


Moral of the story, don't smoke, flaunt copyright laws and double your roll.

(I've gone bust before, but only when I've been playing on shorter rolls due to outlandish spending habits personal circumstances)

I was over 30 before you know what ever happened. Oh, the fun I must have missed. And the joy of working nights to catch up.

All a distant memory now.

Confidence intervals, risk of ruin all that sort of thing.

Statistics can be interesting if someone else does the math.

normal distributions can be fun, I am 95% confident of that

Standard


Deviation

This puns are getting a bit samey. I'd personally like to see a bit more variance in them.

Interesting article Tighty but no one can dismiss 4 7   :dontask:

Don't be mean.

Can't help it. I hear its all the mode these days.

 ::)

Unless you complete the set with a pun involving "median" you are all rank amateurs

It's too late now, you've let the Gini out of the bottle.

Speaking of bottles, you are 99% safe with them, but buy no meal at Burger King, their Quartile Pounder's have been known to contain Poisson.

Funny example of this recently. Playing in a Sixpak £20 on crypto, as close as I can remember it I had recieved 3 bad beats in a row from one of the players who had initally been very short, and he continued to push against my blind, the other players were amazed that I didn't call him the fourth time he pushed, 100/200 blinds both of us have around 2k 1800 to call with 72o. It doesn't matter though apparently, because having been unlucky the past three times made me more likely to win the hand, I probably should have kept quiet but I tried to explain that it didn't matter. "if you flip 99 heads in a row what is the probability the 100th flip will land heads, 50/50 right?" Apparently the chances of it being heads are tiny. Cracked me up but it's kinda mental how so many people risk their money with no understanding of probability whatsoever.

It was on the radio last week. On the median wave.

oh, what a (co)median

Just average, really.

Not ANOVA pun run ::)

There were two, they were comedians.