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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: TightEnd on April 30, 2007, 05:53:27 PM



Title: Wrestlemania
Post by: TightEnd on April 30, 2007, 05:53:27 PM
12 left in a £13k prizepool comp

money starts at 9

550,000 in play

You have 56,000

to your left is chip leader 120,000, there are 3-4 stacks shorter than you at this point plus many in the range 50-80.


UTG with  Aspades Qs, blinds are 2,000-4,000

raise to 12,000 six handed

pass to BB, with 48,000 total

he raises all in

36,000 back to you, pot 36,000+ 26,000= 62,000 or 1.7 to 1 to call

only 8,000 back if you lose, into BB next hand so this is in effect for your tournament

the bb is 77dave, who is capable of a re-steal  but knows I am unlikely to be mucking around much

His range of hands to me includes the obv ones I am dominated by with AA/KK/QQ/AK plus JJ, 1010, 99 maybe AQ, maybe lower pairs

so the range of hands to me suggests some caution, as I would weight towards the first grouping and JJ I suppose

but the odds to call suggest gambling and certainly dictate a call if I am up against any pair lower than QQ,

In addition I am at 10x bb if I pass with my ability to steal cramped by being OOP with a LAG chip leader

the potential 100,000 stack if I win would/should lead to a high finish

Given all that I called, after some mental wrestling.

I am not concerned for the purposes of this thread what he had. Its the thought process up to this point that concerns me please   



Title: Re: Wrestlemania
Post by: GlasgowBandit on April 30, 2007, 06:03:31 PM
Difficult one but having raised i don't think you can pass. He takes you as a rock is it possible that he is at the steal based on the fact that if you have a non premium hand eg AA, KK, he thinks he can get you to fold?

I am personally calling.  I think this is an ideal opportunity to race, if your right you have a powerful stack and it could be a while before you pick up another hand like this.


Title: Re: Wrestlemania
Post by: Rookie (Rodney) on April 30, 2007, 06:29:32 PM
I fold, he clearly has only one hand here - AA


Title: Re: Wrestlemania
Post by: Rookie (Rodney) on April 30, 2007, 06:30:16 PM
ps.. if bandit says call i definately fold.


Title: Re: Wrestlemania
Post by: M3boy on April 30, 2007, 06:43:13 PM
Once you have raised, you HAVE to call.

PS if it was me I would call with 2 3 o/s here as 77dave has NEVER beaten me when all in against him, NEVER ;p


Title: Re: Wrestlemania
Post by: riverdave on April 30, 2007, 06:50:52 PM
Personally don't think he is capable of a resteal in this situation against you. AQ is filth here and hits the muck fairly quickly for me, i may consider calling with some pairs but i think you've run into the boots.


Title: Re: Wrestlemania
Post by: riverdave on April 30, 2007, 06:59:23 PM
Your thought process seems to put him on a lot more hands that you are in big trouble against than hands you are 6/4 against or racing with. Typically against most of the range you are 3/1 or 5/2 worst case 12/1. Can't really justify a call then not getting at the very least 2/1 on your money.


Title: Re: Wrestlemania
Post by: M3boy on April 30, 2007, 06:59:33 PM
Incidently, who won last night?

77dave was looking good when I left


Title: Re: Wrestlemania
Post by: 77dave on April 30, 2007, 07:06:56 PM
We did  a deal with 3 left

Anthony won it i finished 2nd

they have run the comp twice now  i have got 1/120 and 2/92

not bad if i do say so myself ;tightend; rotflmfao


Title: Re: Wrestlemania
Post by: M3boy on April 30, 2007, 07:22:03 PM
We did  a deal with 3 left

Anthony won it i finished 2nd

they have run the comp twice now  i have got 1/120 and 2/92

not bad if i do say so myself ;tightend; rotflmfao

Its what I would expect from Luton's No 1 Tourney player.


Title: Re: Wrestlemania
Post by: TightEnd on May 01, 2007, 12:13:50 AM
Your thought process seems to put him on a lot more hands that you are in big trouble against than hands you are 6/4 against or racing with. Typically against most of the range you are 3/1 or 5/2 worst case 12/1. Can't really justify a call then not getting at the very least 2/1 on your money.

yep, thank you

I think a slightly clearer decision making process weighting his range towards the monsters was required. Half way through that process I'd shoved my chips in!


Title: Re: Wrestlemania
Post by: 77dave on May 01, 2007, 12:16:58 AM
Does this mean my fold equity will increase for the future next time will  you pass against me or will you call allin ????


Title: Re: Wrestlemania
Post by: TightEnd on May 01, 2007, 12:19:56 AM
Does this mean my fold equity will increase for the future next time i pass against you or will you call allin????


Knowing me I will probably out think myself contriving some ridiculous "he knows that I know that he knows that I know but he doesn't know oh bollocks" type of scenario that will propel you on your way to another win!

Well done again last night


Title: Re: Wrestlemania
Post by: AlexMartin on May 01, 2007, 11:23:45 AM
Its 77, i call. Heartbeat.


Title: Re: Wrestlemania
Post by: I, Zimbra on May 01, 2007, 04:14:34 PM
The question I'm asking myself here, is has 77dave seen you raise UTG and then pass to a reraise? In other words, what does he reckon his chances are of representing a monster (that he doesn't have) and pushing you off the hand?

If you're tight yet enough of a caller that you will call reraises most every time you raise UTG, and he has seen this, then he can't reasonably be pushing with anything he doesn't want called.

Generally, if I see a tight player raise in early position and I have something premium like AA or KK, I am more likely to push with it than try something trappy because I expect the tight player NOT to pass, having raised under the gun.


Title: Re: Wrestlemania
Post by: Royal Flush on May 01, 2007, 05:01:04 PM
If i was me i would call, if i was you i would pass.

He knows you have a big hand so re-steal is unlikely.