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Title: sky poker pot odds Post by: AdamM on May 13, 2007, 03:09:29 PM flicked on to the open highlights this afternoon and Norman was talking through a hand. one of the players was four to the flush on the flop and Norman was taking through the pot odds. he was saying the player was 4/1 to hit his flush. with two cards to come that's not quite true is it? I wonder if Norman meant specifically 4/1 to make his flush on thenext card or if he was forgetting to double it.
I remember pot odds being a mystery until someone put it in these simple terms. numbers are approximate but easy for quick reckoning. If I'm doing this wrong please correct me. number of outs x 2% x cards still to come so for a flush draw on the flop 9 outs x 2% x 2 cards 9x2x2=36% or a touch better than 2/1 big difference to 4/1. obviously the other consideration is that if you don't hit on the turn will you face another bet and are you likely to be getting the 4/1 you need to call that bet. so for example flop is Ac 5c 7d you have Qc Kc and you are absolutely convinced your oppo has AK pot is 500 and he bets 250 you are calling 250 to win a pot of 750 so you're getting 3/1 which is right by the 9x2x2=2/1 but wrong for the 4/1 Norman was talking about. however. if you call on the flop and your opponent bets the pot to shut it down on the turn you're in trouble. now you're calling 1000 to win 2000. thats 2/1 but now you're 4/1 to hit. that's why I like live poker better than online. it's subtle phyical clues you get as to whether your man will be moving again on the turn or not that aren't there online (for me at least) Title: Re: sky poker pot odds Post by: Claw75 on May 13, 2007, 03:39:59 PM I've noticed this exact same thing before Adam:
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=20464.msg417011#msg417011 The very simplified odds I use in my mind are 2/1 to hit the flush on the turn or river, and 4/1 to hit on the river if the turn is a blank Title: Re: sky poker pot odds Post by: AdamM on May 13, 2007, 03:53:20 PM sounds like the same hand as the presenter (Richard Orford I think) did question it. obviously you're 4/1 to hit next card, but I don't think that's what Norman was saying.
Title: Re: sky poker pot odds Post by: Claw75 on May 13, 2007, 04:25:37 PM sounds like the same hand as the presenter (Richard Orford I think) did question it. obviously you're 4/1 to hit next card, but I don't think that's what Norman was saying. yep - must be the same one Title: Re: sky poker pot odds Post by: tikay on May 14, 2007, 01:31:31 AM flicked on to the open highlights this afternoon and Norman was talking through a hand. one of the players was four to the flush on the flop and Norman was taking through the pot odds. he was saying the player was 4/1 to hit his flush. with two cards to come that's not quite true is it? I wonder if Norman meant specifically 4/1 to make his flush on thenext card or if he was forgetting to double it. I remember pot odds being a mystery until someone put it in these simple terms. numbers are approximate but easy for quick reckoning. If I'm doing this wrong please correct me. number of outs x 2% x cards still to come so for a flush draw on the flop 9 outs x 2% x 2 cards 9x2x2=36% or a touch better than 2/1 big difference to 4/1. obviously the other consideration is that if you don't hit on the turn will you face another bet and are you likely to be getting the 4/1 you need to call that bet. so for example flop is Ac 5c 7d you have Qc Kc and you are absolutely convinced your oppo has AK pot is 500 and he bets 250 you are calling 250 to win a pot of 750 so you're getting 3/1 which is right by the 9x2x2=2/1 but wrong for the 4/1 Norman was talking about. however. if you call on the flop and your opponent bets the pot to shut it down on the turn you're in trouble. now you're calling 1000 to win 2000. thats 2/1 but now you're 4/1 to hit. that's why I like live poker better than online. it's subtle phyical clues you get as to whether your man will be moving again on the turn or not that aren't there online (for me at least) I think an easier rule of thumb is "the rule of four". On the flop, multiply your "outs" by 4, the answer is the % chance you are to hit. Thus, 4 to the flush on the flop, so 9 outs x 4 = 36%, = (as near as makes no difference) just over 2/1. On the turn, it becomes the rule of two. 9 outs x 2 = 18%, about a 9/2 shot. At least, I think that's right......approx.....roughly......near enough..... Title: Re: sky poker pot odds Post by: KingPoker on May 14, 2007, 01:49:42 AM flicked on to the open highlights this afternoon and Norman was talking through a hand. one of the players was four to the flush on the flop and Norman was taking through the pot odds. he was saying the player was 4/1 to hit his flush. with two cards to come that's not quite true is it? I wonder if Norman meant specifically 4/1 to make his flush on thenext card or if he was forgetting to double it. I remember pot odds being a mystery until someone put it in these simple terms. numbers are approximate but easy for quick reckoning. If I'm doing this wrong please correct me. number of outs x 2% x cards still to come so for a flush draw on the flop 9 outs x 2% x 2 cards 9x2x2=36% or a touch better than 2/1 big difference to 4/1. obviously the other consideration is that if you don't hit on the turn will you face another bet and are you likely to be getting the 4/1 you need to call that bet. so for example flop is Ac 5c 7d you have Qc Kc and you are absolutely convinced your oppo has AK pot is 500 and he bets 250 you are calling 250 to win a pot of 750 so you're getting 3/1 which is right by the 9x2x2=2/1 but wrong for the 4/1 Norman was talking about. however. if you call on the flop and your opponent bets the pot to shut it down on the turn you're in trouble. now you're calling 1000 to win 2000. thats 2/1 but now you're 4/1 to hit. that's why I like live poker better than online. it's subtle phyical clues you get as to whether your man will be moving again on the turn or not that aren't there online (for me at least) I think an easier rule of thumb is "the rule of four". On the flop, multiply your "outs" by 4, the answer is the % chance you are to hit. Thus, 4 to the flush on the flop, so 9 outs x 4 = 36%, = (as near as makes no difference) just over 2/1. On the turn, it becomes the rule of two. 9 outs x 2 = 18%, about a 9/2 shot. At least, I think that's right......approx.....roughly......near enough..... Correct or at least i hope so as thats what i use, or perhaps its wrong and that explains a lot about my poker playing! Title: Re: sky poker pot odds Post by: Royal Flush on May 14, 2007, 03:16:45 AM flicked on to the open highlights this afternoon and Norman was talking through a hand. one of the players was four to the flush on the flop and Norman was taking through the pot odds. he was saying the player was 4/1 to hit his flush. with two cards to come that's not quite true is it? I wonder if Norman meant specifically 4/1 to make his flush on thenext card or if he was forgetting to double it. I remember pot odds being a mystery until someone put it in these simple terms. numbers are approximate but easy for quick reckoning. If I'm doing this wrong please correct me. number of outs x 2% x cards still to come so for a flush draw on the flop 9 outs x 2% x 2 cards 9x2x2=36% or a touch better than 2/1 big difference to 4/1. obviously the other consideration is that if you don't hit on the turn will you face another bet and are you likely to be getting the 4/1 you need to call that bet. so for example flop is Ac 5c 7d you have Qc Kc and you are absolutely convinced your oppo has AK pot is 500 and he bets 250 you are calling 250 to win a pot of 750 so you're getting 3/1 which is right by the 9x2x2=2/1 but wrong for the 4/1 Norman was talking about. however. if you call on the flop and your opponent bets the pot to shut it down on the turn you're in trouble. now you're calling 1000 to win 2000. thats 2/1 but now you're 4/1 to hit. that's why I like live poker better than online. it's subtle phyical clues you get as to whether your man will be moving again on the turn or not that aren't there online (for me at least) I think an easier rule of thumb is "the rule of four". On the flop, multiply your "outs" by 4, the answer is the % chance you are to hit. Thus, 4 to the flush on the flop, so 9 outs x 4 = 36%, = (as near as makes no difference) just over 2/1. On the turn, it becomes the rule of two. 9 outs x 2 = 18%, about a 9/2 shot. At least, I think that's right......approx.....roughly......near enough..... Even better would be to learn the odds for the common draw, str8 + fd, fd, str8, str8 when fd is a concern, overs and fd, gutshot + fd. Title: Re: sky poker pot odds Post by: blonde17 on May 14, 2007, 11:06:04 AM Aspades
It`s even money on all streets ....You either hit or, you don`t ...simple eh. I will make a Sky commentator yet... or maybe not. Well Tikay what did you expect? ...A sensible comment?...I think not. ;cupcake; ;cupcake; ;cupcake; ;cupcake; ;cupcake; ;cupcake; ;cupcake; |