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Title: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: kinboshi on July 06, 2007, 09:47:52 AM You're on Who Wants to be a Millionaire. Let's assume your name is Ed.
As Chris Tarrant would say "You're doing well so far" and have just correctly answered the £64,000 question. Unfortunately, you also used up all your lifelines in the process. So now he asks you the £125,000 question - and you haven't got a clue what the answer is (it's a question about ballet, not your strong point). You have two choices:
What do you do, and why? (http://content.answers.com/main/content/wp/en/thumb/d/d0/175px-ChrisTarrant.JPG) Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: Woodsey on July 06, 2007, 10:04:17 AM Gamble- Because the difference between £32k and 64k ain't going to change my life significantly. £125k on the other hand opens up lots of options for me and at least pays off most of my mortgage.
Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: matt674 on July 06, 2007, 10:05:31 AM (and the chance to get a question for the £250,000 that you know the answer to; i was going to ask are you psychic if you know what the next question is - but then if you were psychic then you'd know the answer to the current question............. all depends on how you value the £32,000 you stand to lose should you get the question wrong. If it means nothing then you guess and it doesn't matter if you lose - however to most people (myself included) the extra money could be put to good use somewhere which is why most people take the money. Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: byronkincaid on July 06, 2007, 10:07:13 AM 75% of the time you get 32K, 25% you get 125K
(.75 * 32) + (.25*125)= 55.25K, so you have a negative expectation as you can fold and take the 64K. so you're paying 9K for the opportunity to get a shot at the 250K, guess it depends how rich you are. I'm permo skint so I take the money. Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: byronkincaid on July 06, 2007, 10:08:19 AM (and the chance to get a question for the £250,000 that you know the answer to; i was going to ask are you psychic if you know what the next question is - but then if you were psychic then you'd know the answer to the current question............. all depends on how you value the £32,000 you stand to lose should you get the question wrong. If it means nothing then you guess and it doesn't matter if you lose - however to most people (myself included) the extra money could be put to good use somewhere which is why most people take the money. I read it like that too but I think he means MAY know the answer to Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: AndrewT on July 06, 2007, 10:17:39 AM 75% of the time you get 32K, 25% you get at least 125K (.75 * 32) + (.25*125)= 55.25K, so you have a negative expectation as you can fold and take the 64K. so you're paying 9K for the opportunity to get a shot at the 250K, guess it depends how rich you are. I'm permo skint so I take the money. However, a certain percentage of the time, if you get the 125K question right, then you will get a 250K one that you know the answer to. (Implied odds) If we assume that you will not get the 250K question wrong (you only attempt it if you are sure you know the answer), then you only need a 7% chance of knowing the 250K question to make the gamble worthwhile (9K costs needed to wipe out -EV from byron's calculation/potential win of extra 125K). I'd say that the chance of your average Millionaire contestant who'd got past 64K knowing the 250K question was bigger than 7%, making the gamble +EV. Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: kinboshi on July 06, 2007, 10:45:30 AM (and the chance to get a question for the £250,000 that you know the answer to; i was going to ask are you psychic if you know what the next question is - but then if you were psychic then you'd know the answer to the current question............. all depends on how you value the £32,000 you stand to lose should you get the question wrong. If it means nothing then you guess and it doesn't matter if you lose - however to most people (myself included) the extra money could be put to good use somewhere which is why most people take the money. I read it like that too but I think he means MAY know the answer to LOL - yes I meant if you gamble you get the chance to be asked a £250,000 question you know the answer to, and also the chance to get one that you don't know the answer to. Take the money - that chance goes. Reminds me of this little sentence: Richard the third was walking and talking ten minutes after his head was chopped off (comma removed for effect). Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: Muahahahaha on July 06, 2007, 10:59:37 AM Gamble
You're only on there once. It's not like a poker game when you can save it for a better position. It's here, it's now. You came with nothing, you're guaranteed £32K. Not a bad days work. Treat anything else as a bonus. ( Admittedly this aggressive approach collapses like a wimpering baby if I ever got to £125K ) . I've got a £150K mortgage. £32 is nice, £64K very nice. But with £125K I can vitually wipe out the mortage. That extra grand a month is genuinely lifestyle changing. Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: Micko on July 06, 2007, 11:41:27 AM Take the 64k cause if i didt no the 125k Question i def wouldt no the 250k Question
Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: Nem on July 06, 2007, 11:45:41 AM 75% of the time you get 32K, 25% you get at least 125K (.75 * 32) + (.25*125)= 55.25K, so you have a negative expectation as you can fold and take the 64K. so you're paying 9K for the opportunity to get a shot at the 250K, guess it depends how rich you are. I'm permo skint so I take the money. However, a certain percentage of the time, if you get the 125K question right, then you will get a 250K one that you know the answer to. (Implied odds) If we assume that you will not get the 250K question wrong (you only attempt it if you are sure you know the answer), then you only need a 7% chance of knowing the 250K question to make the gamble worthwhile (9K costs needed to wipe out -EV from byron's calculation/potential win of extra 125K). I'd say that the chance of your average Millionaire contestant who'd got past 64K knowing the 250K question was bigger than 7%, making the gamble +EV. Hmmm, definitely a tight one... Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: Muahahahaha on July 06, 2007, 12:06:00 PM 75% of the time you get 32K, 25% you get 125K (.75 * 32) + (.25*125)= 55.25K, so you have a negative expectation as you can fold and take the 64K. so you're paying 9K for the opportunity to get a shot at the 250K, guess it depends how rich you are. I'm permo skint so I take the money. What if you can be pretty sure ( say 80% ) that it's not A, but it could be any of the other 3 ? Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: OatFedGoat on July 06, 2007, 12:16:06 PM Great question. For the reasons others have stated, losing 32k from 64k is minimal changes to my life at the moment and so I would gamble. Even better if I can rule out one of the 4 answers.
Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: The Baron on July 06, 2007, 12:24:29 PM If there were only 2 options left after a 50:50 I would gamble.
With 4 choices I take the 64k Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: Wardonkey on July 06, 2007, 12:27:48 PM If there were only 2 options left after a 50:50 I would gamble. With 4 choices I take the 64k If I can eliminate one of the answers thats enough for me to gamble. If I had no idea at all and had used my 50/50 then I'd take the money. Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: The Baron on July 06, 2007, 12:40:43 PM If there were only 2 options left after a 50:50 I would gamble. With 4 choices I take the 64k If I can eliminate one of the answers thats enough for me to gamble. If I had no idea at all and had used my 50/50 then I'd take the money. I'll have to think on that one. My instinct is to take the 64k with 3 options. Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: Muahahahaha on July 06, 2007, 12:54:26 PM If there were only 2 options left after a 50:50 I would gamble. With 4 choices I take the 64k If I can eliminate one of the answers thats enough for me to gamble. If I had no idea at all and had used my 50/50 then I'd take the money. If you can totally get rid of one answer then wouldn't it be (0.33 x 125) + (0.67 x 32) = £62.69 K ?? I'll have to think on that one. My instinct is to take the 64k with 3 options. Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: Wardonkey on July 06, 2007, 12:57:55 PM The upside is much larger, you might be able to answer subsequent questions correctly...
Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: Ironside on July 06, 2007, 01:36:40 PM byron when working out the EV you need to factor in the chances of getting the £250k question right and then the £500k and the million quid question
its basically a coin flip for the ev so it reall depends on what 64k means to you i would gamble Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: kinboshi on July 06, 2007, 05:08:09 PM Does it boil down to whether you consider £64,000 to far more significant and life-changing amount than £32,000?
I've discussed this down the pub a few times with people, and I'm from the school that £32K and £64K are both great amounts to win - but the difference it would make to me to win £125K instead of £64K is far greater than me only winning £32K instead of £64K. I'd be gambling. As Muahahahahahahahahahahaha said - it's a one-off opportunity, and Andrew's implied odds make it very interesting. It's also unlikely that you're going have absolutely no clue about the question whatsoever - and if you can discount an answer, that really changes things. 40/60 split on the voting so far though. Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: Jon MW on July 06, 2007, 05:16:50 PM Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: Jon MW on July 06, 2007, 05:17:08 PM Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: Indestructable on July 06, 2007, 05:17:47 PM i just voted and the poll came up with results as 50-50, thought I had used my lifelines. :D
Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: kinboshi on July 06, 2007, 05:28:26 PM i just voted and the poll came up with results as 50-50, thought I had used my lifelines. :D Ed voted to gamble, as he knew it would guarantee him more TV time. Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: lucky_scrote on July 06, 2007, 05:30:31 PM Ironside your sig made me laugh omg hahahah! (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=25325.0;attach=16307)
Anyway, it is -EV to gamble if you haev a 25% chance on getting the question right. I would take the money. Where as something like deal or no deal where i will either win 1p or 250,000 pounds, i am going to gamble unless i get offered 125,000 or more...which isnt going to happen :D So id have to gamble! Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: Graham C on July 06, 2007, 05:31:36 PM I'd be quite pleased with £64k
Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: kinboshi on July 06, 2007, 05:36:52 PM I'd be quite pleased with £64k But would you be quite pleased with £32K, and REALLY pleased with £125K? Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: bolt pp on July 06, 2007, 06:26:08 PM If you had the 50/50 left insta gamble, though ive seen some turn it down!
-EV otherwise, take the dough Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: George2Loose on July 06, 2007, 07:28:45 PM I think it also comes down to how gutted you'd be to halve your cash if you got it wrong.
Personally it's a tough one but I think I'd gamble..... Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: Indestructable on July 06, 2007, 08:19:31 PM I would prefer to go through life trying and failing, than walking away and then finding I had guessed the right answer.
And yes Kinboshi, losing £32k would make good telly. ;whistle; Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: ripple11 on July 06, 2007, 08:20:28 PM I'd read out the answers and wait for the cough.
Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: bigalhx1 on July 06, 2007, 08:45:56 PM gamble because god loves a gambler its in the bible honest
Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: Robert HM on July 06, 2007, 10:52:31 PM Amen!
Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: kinboshi on July 07, 2007, 03:34:59 PM 18/19 split on the vote. That's helped sort it out then!
Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: Indestructable on July 07, 2007, 03:45:32 PM Just goes to show, we couldn't agree in the pub and can't agree here.
:)up Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: bolt pp on July 08, 2007, 12:40:51 AM 21/21
FIX!!! ::) Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: kinboshi on July 08, 2007, 12:43:13 AM Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: UpTheMariners on July 08, 2007, 05:10:54 AM its all rigged!!!
Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: sovietsong on July 08, 2007, 10:02:49 AM A mate of mine used to have a recurring dream about who wants to be a millionaire.
He was on the last question, and didn't have a clue what the answer was, he'd used 50/50 so had options A & C left, then he used his phone a friend, called me, doesn't waste his time asking me the question just says pick A or C, i picked A, he turns to Chris Tarrent and says my mate is always wrong when it comes to gambling, I'm going to go for C, he wins the money and the crowd go wild! He loves telling that story! SS Title: Re: Millionaire Dilemma Post by: kinboshi on August 13, 2007, 11:15:55 PM New structure for WWTBAM (http://uk.news.yahoo.com/pressass/20070813/ten-millionaire-show-cuts-jackpot-route-5a7c575_1.html)
Quote Millionaire show cuts jackpot route TV quiz show Who Wants To Be A Millionaire? is changing its format, cutting the number of questions it takes to reach the £1 million jackpot. The prize money will start at £500 rather than £100 and there will be only 12 questions to replace the former 15. After reaching £1,000, five questions will take a contestant up to a £50,000 "safe haven", previously £32,000. Host Chris Tarrant said: "Sitting in that hotseat has always been a daunting prospect, but now the contestants are thrown in at the deep end almost as soon as they've sat down, facing questions worth literally thousands." The format will be unveiled in the first of seven celebrity charity specials beginning on August 18 on ITV1, and will continue throughout the new series. Celebrity pairings taking part in the coming weeks include GMTV's Kate Garraway and husband Derek Draper, Sky News presenters Eamonn Holmes and Kay Burley, Emmerdale stars Adele Silva and Nick Miles, and impressionist Jon Culshaw with actor John Thompson. Well that means I'll have to rewrite the dilemma now!! ;grr; |