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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: deepreacher on September 29, 2007, 11:46:29 PM



Title: do i have to make this call? near bubble hand stars 50r
Post by: deepreacher on September 29, 2007, 11:46:29 PM
table is pretty aggro, most hands being won by a preflop raise, or reraise..

PokerStars Game #12343971575: Tournament #61820588, $50+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (800/1600) - 2007/09/29 - 18:35:14 (ET)
Table '61820588 13' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: GB2005 (70574 in chips)
Seat 2: eBo226 (29148 in chips)
Seat 3: Se7enTr3y (23514 in chips)
Seat 4: KojGysto (28129 in chips)
Seat 5: bmaura (75196 in chips)
Seat 6: whitedan2001 (54994 in chips)
Seat 7: Peki30 (37856 in chips)
Seat 8: spectrefax (14690 in chips)
Seat 9: Pointer (38429 in chips)
GB2005: posts the ante 150
eBo226: posts the ante 150
Se7enTr3y: posts the ante 150
KojGysto: posts the ante 150
bmaura: posts the ante 150
whitedan2001: posts the ante 150
Peki30: posts the ante 150
spectrefax: posts the ante 150
Pointer: posts the ante 150
bmaura: posts small blind 800
whitedan2001: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to whitedan2001 [Js Jc]
Peki30: folds
spectrefax: folds
Pointer: folds
spectrefax said, "lol @ mr belding"
GB2005: folds
eBo226: folds
GB2005 said, ":)"
Se7enTr3y: raises 2399 to 3999
KojGysto: folds
bmaura: raises 71047 to 75046 and is all-in

ok so obviously i was gonna be raising se7entr3y all in, but bmaura overshoves? whats his hand range, and considering i have a decent stack (top 10) at this point do i need to make this call?


Title: Re: do i have to make this call? near bubble hand stars 50r
Post by: b4matt on September 30, 2007, 12:09:12 AM
Easy pass, your losing more than 50% of the time.


Title: Re: do i have to make this call? near bubble hand stars 50r
Post by: AlexMartin on September 30, 2007, 02:18:54 AM
Fold imo.


Title: Re: do i have to make this call? near bubble hand stars 50r
Post by: Dubai on September 30, 2007, 02:59:19 AM
In a vacuum its near impossible to say and this hand is probably based entirely on table tempo, dynamics and the created image of the initial raiser.

But im still using these boards to learn so maybe best to ignore me


Title: Re: do i have to make this call? near bubble hand stars 50r
Post by: AlexMartin on September 30, 2007, 03:35:19 AM
In a vacuum its near impossible to say and this hand is probably based entirely on table tempo, dynamics and the created image of the initial raiser.

But im still using these boards to learn so maybe best to ignore me

Totally disaree, thinking about a hand is nearly always wrong. Fold your way to victory.

Could you tell us about that 77 hand when you went deep in the wcoop on UKgatsby's account. I was v.suprised when you showed that.


Title: Re: do i have to make this call? near bubble hand stars 50r
Post by: boldie on September 30, 2007, 10:49:18 AM
I am not in the habit of calling with JJ for my tourney life when I have 30 BB's unless I know Bmaura is a donk who has been making this move a lot.

fold


Title: Re: do i have to make this call? near bubble hand stars 50r
Post by: deepreacher on September 30, 2007, 11:21:47 AM
for everyone saying fold, what do u think his range for shoving here is? Im am 90% sure he is not doing this with AA or KK. surely he makes a standard reraise?

BTW i have no read on him, he had been at the table 2 orbits and the only pt stats on him were 24/14 over 28 hands.

I think the fact this is near the bubble and cut off is likely stealing, makes the SB shove range pretty wide. Thoughts?



Title: Re: do i have to make this call? near bubble hand stars 50r
Post by: Dewi_cool on September 30, 2007, 11:36:14 AM
instafold, only two hands you are calling with here are AA & KK,  if you feel your read on him is good enough then thats your decision,(remember that LAG's get premium hands sometimes & could be disguised as a steal) Near the bubble, I'd rather be doing the pushing.


Title: Re: do i have to make this call? near bubble hand stars 50r
Post by: b4matt on September 30, 2007, 12:42:43 PM
Not really enough tourney info but my feelings are-

His range is probably 99/aq + and therefore he almost certainly has either 2 overcards or a bigger pair. Therefore i feel you would probably be losing this hand 80% of the time, that aside, you have put only a small amount into the pot-

1- Why would you want to call and race?
2- Why would you want to call and risk your tournament with 1 pair so close to the bubble
3- Your gonna see his hand anyway, you'll have a huge amount of info after the hand for next time

My feelings on the very limited info i have is it's a huge overbet with maybe 99 or TT or ak/aq , he could conceivably have any 2 cards between though. I still pass.


Title: Re: do i have to make this call? near bubble hand stars 50r
Post by: boldie on September 30, 2007, 05:32:44 PM

1- Why would you want to call and race?

This is why I fold..call for 30 BB's close to the bubble in a situation where you are most liikely to race?..no thanks


Title: Re: do i have to make this call? near bubble hand stars 50r
Post by: AdamG on September 30, 2007, 05:51:22 PM
fold, wait for bubble to pass then make these sort of calls IF u think ur ahead, in this situation ur 50-50 at best i would say? AK QQ KK AA etc


Title: Re: do i have to make this call? near bubble hand stars 50r
Post by: TheChipPrince on September 30, 2007, 07:43:08 PM

This is a classic case of AK i feel, maybe 88/99/10 10... If you only make one decision this month, make sure its too fold this hand... Absolutely no need to gamble here, in the same blinds etc, i'd only be calling here if your stack was about 15K, even then i may fold, as your basically playing a sidepot for 8K...


Title: Re: do i have to make this call? near bubble hand stars 50r
Post by: Dubai on September 30, 2007, 08:05:26 PM
Peoples ranges are absolutely miles off, try raising the cutoff in a stars tourny and think everytime u get repopped they have a premium lol. And even with these incorrect ranges assigned its still a +ev call.

The previous poster assigns the players range as AK 88 99 or TT but makes this a fold? Interesting stuff, im still waiting to learn something from here as Mantis suggests we all can?


Title: Re: do i have to make this call? near bubble hand stars 50r
Post by: totalise on September 30, 2007, 08:17:21 PM
I guess im a donk, coz I'd call here quite happily, the dynamics of a cutoff raise and a push from the SB is a hell of a lot different then if someone raises UTG and someone from MP ships it in...even though it is a whole 30 big blinds! Screw the bubble as well, on stars they have scabby payout systems so go for glory.


Dubai,

Quote
im still waiting to learn something from here as Mantis suggests we all can?

did you know that Antarctica's largest land animal is a wingless midge (Belgica antarctica), which grows to half an inch long. The largest land predator is a mite that weighs only 100 micrograms?


Title: Re: do i have to make this call? near bubble hand stars 50r
Post by: boldie on September 30, 2007, 08:55:15 PM
I guess im a donk, coz I'd call here quite happily, the dynamics of a cutoff raise and a push from the SB is a hell of a lot different then if someone raises UTG and someone from MP ships it in...even though it is a whole 30 big blinds! Screw the bubble as well, on stars they have scabby payout systems so go for glory.




fair point