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Title: Hand Match Up #3 Post by: Smart Money on October 05, 2007, 02:15:47 PM Following on from Alex's threads.....
Here's a hand from earlier this morning. I flopped a pair, flush draw and gut-shot from UTG* against the UTG+1 raiser. (*I generally don't play SC from UTG but they just looked so pretty.) (I posted a question the other day asking what others thought was the best way to play a flopped pair + flush draw Vs PFR where you are basically 50/50 if they hold an overpair.) Anyway, I bet out and then jammed when he re-raised. He didn't have an overpair though. he had the nut flush draw, overcards, and a gut-shot. So, without using a poker calculator, what would you guess the odds were for each hand? FullTiltPoker Game #3762142776: Table Anthem Club - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 6:28:52 ET - 2007/10/05 Seat 1: Narena ($379.10) Seat 2: Melo44 ($230.70) Seat 3: Stipey10 ($392.45) Seat 4: RALLINSTONE ($47) Seat 5: El Nino 1 ($197) Seat 6: 420Pokerstar ($58) Seat 7: BennytheDog ($200) Seat 8: GLOVER09 ($33.90) Seat 9: LoadedDice20 ($36.55) GLOVER09 posts the small blind of $1 LoadedDice20 posts the big blind of $2 The button is in seat #6 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Narena [Js Ts] Stipey10: nice hand Narena calls $2 Melo44 raises to $8 Stipey10 folds RALLINSTONE folds El Nino 1 folds 420Pokerstar folds GLOVER09 folds LoadedDice20 folds Narena has 15 seconds left to act Narena calls $6 *** FLOP *** [Th 8s Qs] Narena has 15 seconds left to act Narena bets $19 Melo44 has 15 seconds left to act Melo44 raises to $69 Narena raises to $371.10, and is all in Melo44 calls $153.70, and is all in Narena shows [Js Ts] Melo44 shows [Aspades Ks] Title: Re: Hand Match Up #3 Post by: TightEnd on October 05, 2007, 02:19:27 PM He has 3 aces, 3 kings, 6 spades (not the 9s giving you the SF) and 3 Jacks
making him favourite, minus your redraws if he hits an A or K I reckon your hand is 45% ish off to Poker Stove! Title: Re: Hand Match Up #3 Post by: NoflopsHomer on October 05, 2007, 02:33:51 PM Add the full house redraws too. I'm going for a coinflip.
Title: Re: Hand Match Up #3 Post by: M3boy on October 05, 2007, 02:47:22 PM Id go with 45% underdog as well.
Title: Re: Hand Match Up #3 Post by: GlasgowBandit on October 05, 2007, 03:44:34 PM I reckon this is as close to a 50/50 as your going to get unless both where holding something like AKh AK d on a all club flop
Title: Re: Hand Match Up #3 Post by: Longy on October 05, 2007, 06:29:35 PM I reckon this is almost a dead even coin flip so 50/50.
Title: Re: Hand Match Up #3 Post by: kinboshi on October 05, 2007, 07:17:24 PM I've just tried to work it out (badly) in my head, and it's leaning towards 50/50 as well. Going to find out now...
Title: Re: Hand Match Up #3 Post by: Flea on October 05, 2007, 08:58:31 PM I think you're about 40/60 as he has 15 outs (as per tighty's post) which with turn and river to come are about 4% each so he's 60/40. If he misses the turn you then become a slight favourite as his outs are about 3% each with just one card to come.
Title: Re: Hand Match Up #3 Post by: Smart Money on October 05, 2007, 09:39:26 PM I think you're about 40/60 as he has 15 outs (as per tighty's post) which with turn and river to come are about 4% each so he's 60/40. If he misses the turn you then become a slight favourite as his outs are about 3% each with just one card to come. Flea. When calculating clean outs, you're better off using 4% for the first 8 outs, and 3% for the remainder. So, when someone has, say, an open-ended straight and flush draw, their 15 outs would give them (8 x 4%) + (7 x 3%) = 53% equity. Title: Re: Hand Match Up #3 Post by: AlexMartin on October 05, 2007, 10:01:02 PM I think you're about 40/60 as he has 15 outs (as per tighty's post) which with turn and river to come are about 4% each so he's 60/40. If he misses the turn you then become a slight favourite as his outs are about 3% each with just one card to come. Flea. When calculating clean outs, you're better off using 4% for the first 8 outs, and 3% for the remainder. So, when someone has, say, an open-ended straight and flush draw, their 15 outs would give them (8 x 4%) + (7 x 3%) = 53% equity. shhhhhhhhhh damnnit, stop advising. No really, this is a top rule and very very useful in cash games. Title: Re: Hand Match Up #3 Post by: Smart Money on October 05, 2007, 10:21:40 PM Here's the rest of the hand BTW:
*** TURN *** [Th 8s Qs] [6c] *** RIVER *** [Th 8s Qs 6c] [Tc] Narena shows three of a kind, Tens Melo44 shows a pair of Tens Narena wins the pot ($461.40) with three of a kind, Tens :) Title: Re: Hand Match Up #3 Post by: kinboshi on October 05, 2007, 10:46:05 PM Well you were a slight favourite... ;D
Title: Re: Hand Match Up #3 Post by: Flea on October 05, 2007, 11:01:10 PM I think you're about 40/60 as he has 15 outs (as per tighty's post) which with turn and river to come are about 4% each so he's 60/40. If he misses the turn you then become a slight favourite as his outs are about 3% each with just one card to come. Flea. When calculating clean outs, you're better off using 4% for the first 8 outs, and 3% for the remainder. So, when someone has, say, an open-ended straight and flush draw, their 15 outs would give them (8 x 4%) + (7 x 3%) = 53% equity. Thanks for that - I'm still trying to learn all the percentages and stuff so these threads are really useful to me. Keep them coming guys and gals. Title: Re: Hand Match Up #3 Post by: Smart Money on October 06, 2007, 02:18:56 AM Anyway, no bad beat as the 50.3% favourite hung in there. :)
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