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Title: HSBC World Match Play golf Post by: Karabiner on October 11, 2007, 12:24:25 AM It's not the strongest ever field but I feel there is some value to be had.
Angel Cabrera loves Wentworth and I'm on at what seems to be a gargantuan 14/1 on B'fair. As long as he gets by his first round match v Goosen (dismal record on the course) it'll be a simple trade for profit. Title: Re: HSBC World Match Play golf Post by: vegaslover on October 12, 2007, 12:59:46 AM Good spot
Title: Re: HSBC World Match Play golf Post by: boldie on October 12, 2007, 05:54:52 AM It's not the strongest ever field but I feel there is some value to be had. Angel Cabrera loves Wentworth and I'm on at what seems to be a gargantuan 14/1 on B'fair. As long as he gets by his first round match v Goosen (dismal record on the course) it'll be a simple trade for profit. good spot indeed. Just whatever you do..don't back me in this..I don't stand a chance. Title: Re: HSBC World Match Play golf Post by: Graham C on October 12, 2007, 04:46:26 PM Didn't know you played Boldie :D
Just a small punt on Earnie for me and sadly not at a good price. Still a winner is a winner. Title: Re: HSBC World Match Play golf Post by: vegaslover on October 12, 2007, 09:34:42 PM How is your betting going Silo? Your blog states you have given it up for now!
Title: Re: HSBC World Match Play golf Post by: Graham C on October 12, 2007, 11:24:04 PM hmmmm rubbish. I did give up and unless Ernie wins, I'll probably be giving up again. I seem to back things that lose a lot. This week, I've lost a bit on Taylor losing to the unknown Gray in the Darts and also tonight had over 2.5 goals in the U21 match. I wouldn't mind so much but it's not like I was making a fortune if they came in, they were such short odds. I really don't know why I bother anyway, I can make more money playing poker than betting the odd few quid here and there. I just like to have winning bets, the amount doesn't really matter, I just can't help it.
That said, I'm not betting like I was before. I've managed to kick that habit - stupid one goal or more bets, trying to trade the (rigged) tennis, all -EV in the long run for me. It's a weakness, it's probably not too good for me. I'd say I'd stop, but I know I'll have something on Engand v Estonia and again in the Russia game midweek, then it's back to the Premiership/other leagues. I only punt for small change though - that's my only defence. Neverends ::) Not so good is the answer :D Probably the most enjoyable betting idea I had was to be on every market Betfair offered. I started at the top and worked my way down. I didn't actually make it that far but it was fun. Stuff like Pelota turned in to a nice earner compared to the football bets and I know nothing about it! I didn't even know what it was at the time, but it was interesting looking into things like that - bandy was another one, it was a good 'project' and one I may do again, if I get the urge to deposit again! Title: Re: HSBC World Match Play golf Post by: Karabiner on October 13, 2007, 12:02:15 AM Meanwhile back to the world matchlpay....
What price did you back Els at Graham, and have you traded for a profit ? I'm stuck upon the horns of a dilemma, albeit a rather nice one. I recouped my stake after the first round laying Cabrera(whom I backed @14/1) @ 6/1, giving me a nice freeroll. Do I stick or twist ? Cabrera is around 4/7 in his semi-final v Mahan and I could cash out for a tidy profit, but I quite fancy Stenson to turn Els over in the other semi which would make Cabrera odds-on for the final. What to do ??? Title: Re: HSBC World Match Play golf Post by: vegaslover on October 13, 2007, 01:24:27 AM I'm having a small bet on Mahan, I believe his price is currently too big for his results this week. Will trade out once the match starts.
Title: Re: HSBC World Match Play golf Post by: crip17 on October 13, 2007, 04:11:26 AM Stenson has his form back, before the tourney started ironically i backed Els and Stenson. Will be a great match up and prob the winner go on to win on sunday. Both playing awsome
Nice shout on Caberra, played awsome yesterday. Title: Re: HSBC World Match Play golf Post by: Graham C on October 13, 2007, 07:42:08 AM No trade on Ernie yet, I only backed yesterday at 2.6 so no option to do so. I think I'll just leave it, he's good on Wentworth.
Mahan is playing well at the moment, not sure I'd been keen to bet against him, mind you so is Caberra. Not and easy one to pick. Caberra v Els in the final imo. Title: Re: HSBC World Match Play golf Post by: vegaslover on October 13, 2007, 07:48:48 PM Your bets still alive Silo. You letting it run or trading for the green?
Title: Re: HSBC World Match Play golf Post by: Graham C on October 14, 2007, 02:04:15 PM Just traded at 1.10 just in case. I have a habit of regretting not greening out so I did and made a small profit.
Title: Re: HSBC World Match Play golf Post by: neeko on October 14, 2007, 02:31:58 PM Quick question -
We hear of prize pools being split HU in poker all the time cos of top heavy payouts, do golfers do this? This matchplay has 1m for the winner and 400k for 2nd - whilst Ernie is favouite surely it would still be +ev for him to agree 800k/600k or 850k/550k before the event to narrow the variance. Title: Re: HSBC World Match Play golf Post by: Graham C on October 14, 2007, 02:44:44 PM Good question and I haven't a clue.
I'd have thought that it would be kept extremely quiet if they did, it would certainly be off record. Title: Re: HSBC World Match Play golf Post by: lazaroonie on October 15, 2007, 08:24:45 AM i dont think this happens.
difference between poker and golf is that the money for the prize fund in golf comes from the sponsors, whereas in poker in comes from the players entry fees. Title: Re: HSBC World Match Play golf Post by: Karabiner on October 15, 2007, 09:37:48 AM It may have happened occasionally 25/30 years ago in a playoff situation when the prize money was far less.
Nowadays the players make so many millions per annum that a few hundred grand here or there is almost trivial. |