blonde poker forum

Decent rises for both Party and Sportingbet today, anyone know why?

doubtful you'll find anyone on here that would know ;D ::) ;D ::) ;D ::) :P

INCOMING!!!!!!

Party reported their Q3 results today, the market received them well. Sporting Bet would have moved up iin sympathy with the sector.

I believe Party's results were reported on our Forum earlier this morning.

My advice as to Party's shares remains as before. Avoid.

i can't give advice.

and I have no idea what you are talking about Ifm  :D

Results were bad but outlook forward is great. I had a guy ring me
  yesterday and ask if he should sell before they announce. I am glad
  I said to hold until today as they are surging today. I think that partypoker will have a decent run this quarter but no guarantees, big help is the Black Jack that they added it is adding a lot of extra revenue. Even bigger is the fact that they are resigning the palyers from Empirepoker & Eurobet and the cost per sign up is cheaper right now as they already know about partypoker.
  :tikay:

There speaks a shareholder methinks......

i'm with tikay. avoid. maybe dip in and out but not long term.

Citibank just put a target of 223p so it has a long way to go I am confident it will break 100p very soon. This is not trading advice please note.

 :-X

unfortunately

A small question, how many of you on Party have a side bet at 8-1 on the flop being all red or all black? if not would you consider it? what odds would you require?

I sort of know what revenue Party is expecting from this source. I'd like to cross reference my thoughts.

p.s The day any stock reaches a price target from a "sell side" broker that is double the current share price is the day I will attend a poker tournament in drag.

That is what i have done, after they shed coral/empire it made sense to me that the company value would rise, at least in the short term.

I would not be averse to buying Party on weakness, but sell on strength would be the order of the day. as a long-term investment, whilst I cannot give advice, plague & avoid are the words that spring to mind.

Shares? Been there, done it, made plenty, lost plenty. Shares can go up as well as down.......

Hmmm... Too late...  >:( >:( >:(

You didn't listen to us then!!!

It's NOT too late.

The first loss is the cheapest. If you think it's a bad 'un, take your punishment, accept your loss, & get out. This applies to ANY share.

Opportunity cost = is there a better place for your money? If there is, then the relevance of past decisions is ZERO.

Each and every decsion is a discrete event, and our task is to assess accurately the competing merits of alternative uses of our capital, for whatever motivation floats our boat given our incomings and obligations.


Lecture over

its even worse 8 for 1 or 7/1...certainly a way of diverting money from the fish direct to party. isn't the rake enough for these guys

I think Tikay's advice is sound.

Unless you are an experienced trader Party really is a bit volatile, you need to be able to sell it quick, and unless you have a broker willing to drop everything and work fast for you then it's not the greatest value. The time to buy was when they dumped coral/empire, there is probably still value but the margain is to small compared to the risk if you can't move fast enough.

i may be wrong but i think they only have a small edge as the actual odds are 8.5/1. Can someone confirm this?

actual odds are near 8.5/1 but they pay 7/1..big edge

i thought they were paying 8/1. 8/.5/1 v 7/1 is a big edge

Ace, redsimon

the number of signups (ex the switch over from Empire etc) is slowing (Party as market leader is seeing this ahead of the rest of the industry despite their marketing budget )

Party has enacted the standard response which is to try to derive more revenue per user eg Blackjack, side bets on the flop to benefit from their scale with first mover advantage

If they get enough volume at 7-1 on a 8.5 to 1 shot, it will pay off hansomely. I wonder how many of you actually play when they give themselves such an edge? If volume doesn't follow watch for them to pay 7.5-1 etc

Eg Grosvenor casinos operates on a 1.5-2% margin.

Gaming is a classic high volume low margin industry once matured, and make no mistake, online poker is in the early stages of maturing

Or in lay-speak.....

If you are doing your bo****ks, get out NOW, there MUST be a better investment somewhere that offers a better return.

they are paying 8 for 1 which isn't 8/1..you put 1 on returned 8 if your guess is right, which is 7/1..maths lesson over :D

:blonde:

I've changed my tagline to reflect the maturing party poker regime... :D

do you not get stake back? 1 on 9 returned?

Tighty states........

Gaming is a classic high volume low margin industry once matured, and make no mistake, online poker is in the early stages of maturing

Well, IF you believe that - I make no comment for or against - then remember THIS.

You buy stocks for, in the main (forget tax complications, Pension needs or the like) two reasons, apart from the obvious "lets make some money over & above standard risk-free but low-return vehicles such as High Street Banks.

1) Capital appreciation. = stock price likely to RISE rapidly.

2) Income = Stock pays a good dividend, which covers earnings & interest comfortably.

MATURE stocks do NOT rise much above inflation, generally in line with the Market. But they pay a healthy dividend.

So, if you are in gaming stocks, & you believe the sector is reaching "Maturity", you should look NOT at the share price graph, but the dividend they offer.

So your next question, if you believe Maturity has arrived, is "How much dividend do Party pay"?........

i can see a blonde forfiet at broadways

They are expected to pay a dividend of 2.95p for the year ending 31 Dec 2005, a yield of 3.35%

For the next full year this is expected to rise to 4.88 pence per share, a yield of 5.5%

All on consensus figures, no personal opinion attached.

The free cash flow yield (Cash flow left for the business after tax, capital expenditure, all costs and dividends) is forecast at 8% for the year about to end


Think( just hypothetically)  people, what can you borrow at from the bank, what return does Party give you? Is there a spread there?

Party has two major shareholders but if the economics of this are valida cross the industry...cash flow spread vs borrowing costs, you have your answer as to why consolidation is inevitable.

Party's current market capitalisation is £3.5bn

happily. For one minute only!