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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: Junior Senior on October 27, 2007, 09:48:05 AM



Title: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: Junior Senior on October 27, 2007, 09:48:05 AM
GUKPT Sat on-line. 
3 seats awarded and there are 8 players left. 
You are 7th in chips due to a recent doubled up from dead last. 
Blinds 400-800, you now have 10.5k in chips with average being about 20k, next blind increase is 6 mins away and you are on a 15 minute clock. Average chips for a seat (i.e. 3 left is 50k)

You are dealt  Ad Qh in 3rd position.  UTG (big stack) limps, you call (perhaps should have made a raise here but hey you've limped!) the cut off limps, button folds and the blins both stay in.  Flop comes:

 Ahrt 8h Th

immediately the small blind moves in for his entire stack (11k) into the 4k pot.

BB and UTG folds and action is on you.  You have just the cut off limper left to act after you.  What's your decision - call or fold? and what do you put the pusher on?


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: stewart on October 27, 2007, 09:59:07 AM
you have to call in this spot,  i would put the bb on 2 pair of a baby flush, but to put it simply you need them chips your not going to limp into the final 3 and with thease chips  and even if u call and hit ur Q or Hearts or RR Strait your still not grt a seat but at least with 24kish you can bully your way to 50k pretty easy but with 10k you carnt raise and pass,

just my view  stew


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: TightEnd on October 27, 2007, 02:08:37 PM
I think I might put him on the bare  Kh, the old "what hand can I beat"? trick

I think he'd check raise all in a big made hand like 2 pair etc, versus a baby flush you have outs

As it is he pushes here, happy to take it down but outs if he gets a call

In your spot I call


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: Junior Senior on October 27, 2007, 02:26:13 PM
good responses guys, I'll wait for a few more and reveal.


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: doubleup on October 27, 2007, 02:54:04 PM

The only reason to flat call pre-flop is to create a situation where you can accumulate some chips (obviously with some risk).  With that in mind, this flop is about the best you could hope for.  There are a stack of hands you are beating here, some of them drawing very thin.  I can't see how you can possibly pass here.


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: AlexMartin on October 27, 2007, 04:07:59 PM
The flop is wonderful, but this isnt as easy a decision as people make out. BTW if i put him on 2 pair or a baby flush, i WONT be calling here. I agree with tighty, could well be naked nut flush draw. Not easy. Its 11k into a 4 pot kids.


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: doubleup on October 27, 2007, 04:54:22 PM
The flop is wonderful, but this isnt as easy a decision as people make out. BTW if i put him on 2 pair or a baby flush, i WONT be calling here. I agree with tighty, could well be naked nut flush draw. Not easy. Its 11k into a 4 pot kids.

Dont know how on earth you are going to put him on these two hands, but you do realise that you are favorite against A8?


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: temp0r on October 27, 2007, 05:48:26 PM
i've been thinking for 5 minutes and really don't know.. SHOCKER.


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: Flea on October 27, 2007, 07:01:21 PM
I'd put the short-stack on Ace something (maybe with the something being a heart), probably less than your AQ.

Personally I'm worried about the cut-off limper as he could have anything but I think you're ahead against all-in guy so I'd go all-in myself and hope to get cut-off to fold but if he calls I think you've still got outs yourself if behind to  made flush as it's unlikely to be King high (plus you need to gamble and this is a pretty good spot to gamble from).


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: AlexMartin on October 27, 2007, 11:19:30 PM
Quote from: [url=http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198
Alex[/url] Martin (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198) link=topic=28513.msg581772#msg581772 date=1193497679]
The flop is wonderful, but this isnt as easy a decision as people make out. BTW if i put him on 2 pair or a baby flush, i WONT be calling here. I agree with tighty, could well be naked nut flush draw. Not easy. Its 11k into a 4 pot kids.

Dont know how on earth you are going to put him on these two hands, but you do realise that you are favorite against A8?

What hands are you putting a non-mug on here then? Enlighten me please.


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: Tractor on October 28, 2007, 12:11:19 AM
Quote from: [url=http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198
Alex[/url] Martin (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198) link=topic=28513.msg581772#msg581772 date=1193497679]
The flop is wonderful, but this isnt as easy a decision as people make out. BTW if i put him on 2 pair or a baby flush, i WONT be calling here. I agree with tighty, could well be naked nut flush draw. Not easy. Its 11k into a 4 pot kids.

Dont know how on earth you are going to put him on these two hands, but you do realise that you are favorite against A8?

What hands are you putting a non-mug on here then? Enlighten me please.
Got to agree with Alex here, what are his starting hands in this situation?


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: doubleup on October 28, 2007, 01:23:39 AM
Quote from: [url=http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198
Alex[/url] Martin (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198) link=topic=28513.msg582106#msg582106 date=1193523570]
Quote from: [url=http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198
Alex[/url] Martin (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198) link=topic=28513.msg581772#msg581772 date=1193497679]
The flop is wonderful, but this isnt as easy a decision as people make out. BTW if i put him on 2 pair or a baby flush, i WONT be calling here. I agree with tighty, could well be naked nut flush draw. Not easy. Its 11k into a 4 pot kids.

Dont know how on earth you are going to put him on these two hands, but you do realise that you are favorite against A8?

What hands are you putting a non-mug on here then? Enlighten me please.
Got to agree with Alex here, what are his starting hands in this situation?

He's in the small blind in an unraised pot so he can have pretty much anything - as far as his ai is concerned any ace with a heart - any pair with a high heart TxKh, TxJh strong possibilities, 2pr, 88, baby flush, TT/AKh unlikely as surely he wld have made a move pre, nut flush as he wld chk, but you never know.


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: RED-DOG on October 28, 2007, 06:34:28 AM
For me the main consideration is your stack size. Are you likely to get a better chance?

I push.


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: M3boy on October 28, 2007, 07:05:57 AM
This is a very tricky decision , being as it is a satelite.

You also have the cut off to act behind you. I would ask the following questions :

1) How many chips does the cutoff have?
2) Has the SB done this before? ie overbet pots? How have they played in general?
3) Why did you limp with AQ in this position with these chips?
4) What would you have done if the SB had made a squeeze play? Would you call?

I am almost certain you are behind here, and drawing to the flush (maybe an ace or Q as well). Certainly 60 40 at best (with them having just bare  Kh). Your best case scenario (which I doubt is very likely) is Ax.

I probably pass here tbh, you still have 10xBB and the next level is only 500 1000 - ie not a huge increase. Remember, you are playing for 3rd spot, NOT to win it.

I would also add that if this was a normal payout structure I would call as I am playing to win.

I would also add that by flat calling in the position you were in and with your chip stack, you have created this dilema.


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: M3boy on October 28, 2007, 07:10:54 AM
you have to call in this spot,  i would put the bb on 2 pair of a baby flush, but to put it simply you need them chips your not going to limp into the final 3 and with thease chips  and even if u call and hit ur Q or Hearts or RR Strait your still not grt a seat but at least with 24kish you can bully your way to 50k pretty easy but with 10k you carnt raise and pass,

just my view  stew

With 10k you still have some fold equity in re raising , and picking up 3200 (assuming the raiser makes it 2400 to go)


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: AlexMartin on October 28, 2007, 08:45:23 AM
Well i deffo call here, but its not as clear cut as other decisions. I hate the fact that you are calling a huge overbet for your tournament life in an unraised pot. Doubleup i was merely suggesting that if you put SB on a hand  range as narrow as 2pr or a baby flush as stewart suggested
you have to call in this spot,  i would put the bb on 2 pair of a baby flush, but to put it simply you need them chips your not going to limp into the final 3 and with thease chips  and even if u call and hit ur Q or Hearts or RR Strait your still not grt a seat but at least with 24kish you can bully your way to 50k pretty easy but with 10k you carnt raise and pass,

just my view  stew

then i deffo wouldnt be calling. As played i call here unless opponent is known nit. What stack size would you need to NOT call this bet ppl?




































































































Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: Junior Senior on October 28, 2007, 10:20:16 AM
This is a very tricky decision , being as it is a satelite.

You also have the cut off to act behind you. I would ask the following questions :

1) How many chips does the cutoff have?
2) Has the SB done this before? ie overbet pots? How have they played in general?
3) Why did you limp with AQ in this position with these chips?
4) What would you have done if the SB had made a squeeze play? Would you call?

I am almost certain you are behind here, and drawing to the flush (maybe an ace or Q as well). Certainly 60 40 at best (with them having just bare  Kh). Your best case scenario (which I doubt is very likely) is Ax.

I probably pass here tbh, you still have 10xBB and the next level is only 500 1000 - ie not a huge increase. Remember, you are playing for 3rd spot, NOT to win it.

I would also add that if this was a normal payout structure I would call as I am playing to win.

I would also add that by flat calling in the position you were in and with your chip stack, you have created this dilema.


Ok, all good debate here. (1) cut off has me covered but he would have to have something incredble (nut flush - possible? or a set? - highly highly unlikely) to call given the SB pushed and I call all-in so I am not worried about him.

(3) I know that by limping I have created this dliemma but I didn't want to raise to pass here and open folding is just not an option.  The table had been in general fairly active and I thought I had just the stack for someone to test me with a re-raise as they would probably assume they had a reasonable amount of fold equity so my limp in fairly ealry position was to allow me to get away from the hand if the action got too heavy preflop.  (2) & (4) the sb, had so far shown he was fairly tight but not a rock, he had bet and raised just as frequently as any of the other players so a squeeze play gven his stack size and the chain limp reaction to me would have looked like a move so yes I was quite prepared to call here and take a shot that I had him dominated.

I know with 4/5 limpers, I need to catch the flop hard to continue with the hand and tbh I considered the flop to be excellent for me and if the action passes to me I am betting the pot or probably even the lot here as again I don't want anyone thinking they can get me off the hand.  So when the SB moves in I called thinking he had the bare  Kh or Ax and a small heart. It crossed my mind that he could well have 2pr but my outs to the re-draw were enough to warrant a call, especially that my strongest feeling was that I was already ahead.  I didn't put him on a set as surely any pair pushes here pre-flop given the limping and with the flush (even a baby one) surely he check raises here?! 

I also felt short compared to the table even though I have 10BB's if I pass.  Although this is a Sat and I don't need to win it, I do still need to come top 3 for the seat so its not like I can fold my way to 3rd - this looked like just the spot to get all my chips in and thus leave me in a good position to negotiate top 3. In short a probable seat winning decision.

anyway... the SB had  8s Ac for 2 pair and the board blanked out.  I was cursing my call at first but on reflection feel that it was the right decision.

thoughts?>>>


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: M3boy on October 28, 2007, 10:33:01 AM
Junior - you said you thought he had bare Kh but turned out he had A 8 (2pr)

You cursed your decision, but now think it was right.

The difference in odds of you winning against bare Kh and 2 pair is very small.

Would you still think the same if he did indeed have bare Kh and hit?

I do not like calling all of my stack on a 50 50 - which is basically what you have done - I prefer to get my chips in first.

To put it another way, same situatuation with same stack sizes, but you are BB and the SB shoves on you. You have 22. Say if you somehow get to "see" their cards and see they hold AK - would you call????


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: doubleup on October 28, 2007, 11:06:44 AM
Well I'm calling here knowing that its a race and M3boy, I would also call with 22 vs AK.  We have half average chips and are simply not going to win a seat without gambling at some stage. 


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: AlexMartin on October 28, 2007, 01:16:02 PM
Id rather have a chance at picking up pots uncontested with re-raises and steals then calling off my tournament life for a coin flip, especially in a satellite. Thoughts please?


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: TightEnd on October 28, 2007, 02:05:09 PM
Yes but once you are in this position and needing to gamble this is a good spot


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: doubleup on October 28, 2007, 02:37:07 PM
Id rather have a chance at picking up pots uncontested with re-raises and steals

I would fold this hand if I had average or above average chips because this is a viable option. 

I don't think we have enough chips here to adopt this tactic, we are going to have to win a pot at some point and this is as good a spot as any.  The chips we win here are very high value because we are a small stack and we take another small stacks chips.


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: AlexMartin on October 28, 2007, 03:31:09 PM
Im not refferring to this AQ hand, im referring to 22 v AK.


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: TightEnd on October 28, 2007, 03:35:56 PM
Im not refferring to this AQ hand, im referring to 22 v AK.

I'd agree with you then, unless your chip stack demands such a gamble I'd rather push/resteal etc my way to be first into the middle than calling off with what I know is a coin flip at best


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: doubleup on October 28, 2007, 03:52:48 PM
Quote from: [url=http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198
Alex[/url] Martin (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198) link=topic=28513.msg582370#msg582370 date=1193585469]
Im not refferring to this AQ hand, im referring to 22 v AK.

I'd agree with you then, unless your chip stack demands such a gamble I'd rather push/resteal etc my way to be first into the middle than calling off with what I know is a coin flip at best

??????

AK vs 22 is the same situation that OP was in when the range of the pusher's hand is considered.  Why do you call one and not the other?



Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: TightEnd on October 28, 2007, 03:55:35 PM
It is not definitively the same situation, IMHO

Short stack can push with bare  Kh, meaning AQ here is calling as a favourite

depends what you have the range as.


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: doubleup on October 28, 2007, 04:17:27 PM
It is not definitively the same situation, IMHO

Short stack can push with bare  Kh, meaning AQ here is calling as a favourite

depends what you have the range as.

If you include Khx hands in any reasonable range of other hands its a race.  Anyway my point is that I think when you are still some distance from the bubble, below average in chips and rapidly moving towards a situation where pushing will be your only move, you should not pass a situation with substantial equity e.g a race with dead money in the pot.


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: M3boy on October 28, 2007, 05:03:26 PM
Agreed Doubleup.

This situation IS the same as AK vs 22 - THAT was my point - as some of the people who would call here , also wouldnt call with the 22 - strange


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: TightEnd on October 28, 2007, 05:06:40 PM
Assuming the AK is unknown then the 22 stands a far higher chance of being dominated within the range of a first in pusher than AQ with Qh has here given the three heart with an Ace board.

that's all!


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: M3boy on October 28, 2007, 05:19:22 PM
Assuming the AK is unknown then the 22 stands a far higher chance of being dominated within the range of a first in pusher than AQ with Qh has here given the three heart with an Ace board.

that's all!

Indeed, but my question said you somehow "saw" that they were holding AK - was just trying to come up with a scenario that offered the same odds.


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: TightEnd on October 28, 2007, 06:50:31 PM
my bad!

I suppose if I knew they held AK then yes, if I needed a double up to stand any chance then yes I'd have to call off


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: GlasgowBandit on October 29, 2007, 01:58:38 PM
Personally I'd have pushed pre flop as I don't want a tough decision on the flop.  I am happy to pick up whats in the middle uncontested and steal/raise my way to an average stack then i can start to get a little cute. 

The way the hand is played then I most certainly call the AI.


Title: Re: Tourney Decision....Call or Fold?
Post by: AlexMartin on October 29, 2007, 10:18:51 PM
this thread has become way too confused.