blonde poker forum

Day 1 of the blondepoker.com Waterford Winter Festival
€500 NLH F/O, 275 starters (156 returned for Day 2)
It is the penultimate level of the day, blinds are 200/400(25)

Relatively new table.

Seat 2: Middle-aged woman, haven't seen her play a hand yet, has been quiet = about 25k
Seat 4: Middle-aged man, likes to play cash games (apparently), seems willing to play hands = 35-40k
Seat 10: Hero = about 23k

Hero raises 1.1k from earlyish position with Td 8d. Mateygirl calls, as does Mateyboy.

Flop = Ad Jd 7s

Hero bets out just over 3k.

Mateygirl counts out her chips, dwells momentarily and pushes all-in for around 24k total.

Mateyboy rises and announces that he can't get away from the hand and calls.

Do you fold your hand or call-in for your remaining 19k?

19k to win 69k..........
Doubt i could pass

Gotta call I guess, pot odds are there.

seeing as I also have the magic 9 for the straight I probably call.

i think you mis-worded it snoops. It should really be can i pass?

My worry here is that the 9 may all you'll be drawing to..... I fold and see Day 2.

The only problem is one of them could be drawing to the nut flush.

Mateyboys comment of "I can't get away from this" might suggest that.

 ;iagree;

I think mateyboy who says he cant pass the hand has some sort of royal flush draw Qd Kd or  Kd Td. Although great odds to call and get a really healthy stack but like someone else said you may only be drawing to a 9

Fold from me. Could easily be in a world of pain here, regardless of having right odds.

if the board pairs you'll be drawing dead. so fold.

fair point.

would be a fold...the lads comment gives the impression he is after a flush aswell perhaps...fold and wait for later for flush draws.[last tourny i had a pair and nut flush draw from flop...couldnt let it go and paid for it when i was about 4th best stack...

I call pot odds dictate and i don't think either has a flush draw often enough to justify thinking that some of our odds are counterfeited.

Actually, this is a really easy fold.

really? Tournament poker is about chip accumulation, depends on how his speech went down snoops, if it sounds like he has a huuuge draw, pass. 90% of the time im dancing here.

it might be a fold but definetly not an easy one my friend..I'm calling here most of the time and I'm just about convinced it's ussually the best play to make.

definately moving towards a fold here for me, would be definate if the lady player was not a tight player.

All hinges on if he has exactly Kd Qd.

The only hands he can make that exclamation with are a set or the Kd Qd.

If we assume the lady has a minimum 2 pairs then some of his set possibilties diminish and up goes the likelyhood of him holding exactly Kd Qd.

I fold i think and fight another day in a pot where i am sure my outs are good.

To be honest I'm probably folding to the initial all in let alone considering calling after a call to the all in lol.

To the 'it's all about chip accumulation' comment ; 100% kerrect - it is, not donking your stack and tourney life away on 3rd class draws. For those the advocate calling the all in I'm intrigued to know what you put both of them on?

As an aside I'd be interested what posters would have bet out post flop.

Well, "my friend", the huge overshove from the women weights her more heavily towards a higher flush draw than the second guy. Because huge overshoves are traditionally big draws. You are hoping that either they both have sets or one of them has a set; the other two pair. However, for this to be the case one of them has to be making a HUGE mistake here and be massively overplaying a non nut hand. And also, because of the lack of a reraise pre it is unlikely that either has AA so it removes one of the possible sets you are hoping to see from their ranges.

I think this is a fairly trivial fold.

I hate to boost the beagle's ego a little, but he's actually a good player and doesn't need to gamble his stack off on a marginal draw here (marginal because vs two people). He can find better spots than this due to some of the locals' fairly 'interesting' play.

Anyone's thoughts on Snoops going for a c/raise all-in on the flop?

I prefer the check raise to leading out here i think..but that's also because I don't mind calling here after leading out so don't mind getting my chips in the middle here.

I agree with Lucky Lloyd here - Its Mateygirl that is more likely to be on the flush draw, and for that reason I would fold in this spot.  I would have a guess at Mateyboy being ahead at the moment with 77.

Easy fold if our German friend is calling.

You're up against a set and a higher flush draw (proberly). 

lol..that's the problem when you attend a BB..everybody immediately knows you stink :(

BTW..when is the next one again?

Assuming snoops is going to give us the result eventually I'm gonna stick my neck out...

Mateygirl    Aspades Qc

Mateboy      Kd 9d

Based on...
(a) I think Mateygirl's all in is indicative of not really wanting a call - I think AJ or a set makes it 9k to go, (9k to get draws outta the way and to get something outta AK AQ etc)

(b) Mateyboy's comment is revealing imo - holding AKQJ suited post flop is a kneejerk instacall for a lot of peeps on the basis it just looks so damn strong.


I will of course bring my own vaseline to snoopy's revelation post.    ;bumwiggle;


Vaseline applied.... 

lol @ all the v.easy fold opinions. Each to our own but i dont get how this is ever easy when we dont have a healthy chips stack.

Over 45 BBs is plenty of time to play poker rather than bingo...

 ;scarymoment;


I think we may have done this one to death lol.

Right i have pokerstoved this as im not convinced by these easy folds comments. Assuming everyone agrees that 19k into 69k is the equation so around 7 to 2 or we need around 22.5% equity in the pot to make calling +ev.

Right with ranges i reckon are reasonable ie 2pr hands, sets, combo str8 and flush draws, combo flush and pair draws. I have included big aces for the lady and no random bluffing hands (which are a possibility)

I get this

  1,492,659  games     0.171 secs     8,729,000  games/sec

Board: Ad Jd 7s
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    37.281%     37.28%    00.00%            556470            4.00   { Td8d }
Hand 1:    23.366%     22.08%    01.28%            329633        19144.00   { AA, JJ, 77, AJs+, KdQd, Kd7d, J7s, 9d7d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d, 5d4d, AJo+, J7o }
Hand 2:    39.353%     38.07%    01.28%            568264        19144.00   { AA, JJ, 77, AJs, A7s, KdQd, J7s, 9d7d, 7d6d, 7d5d, AJo, A7o, J7o }

Any comments, anyone think my ranges are miles off. I have Snoops as 37% 2nd fave with his hand and 10% clear on the equity he needs.

Longy,

Perfect for online or non travelling expensed live... but in this particular situation I really really think that a half decent player should be waiting for a better spot....

Cheers,
MKKfish   ;flushy; ;flushy; ;flushy;

Mateygirl = Aspades Qs

Mateyboy = Ahrt Jh

River = 2d

I've been highly intrigued by some of the responses on this thread, and whilst I understand the idea of pot odds, I think they are somewhat skewed in tournament play and believe too many factors exist in order to apply a simple mathematical equation to the decision. Of course, winning the pot will give you a nice stack, but that's no guarantee that you'll turn a profit, whilst if you lose the hand, you are guaranteed to be out of the tournament. Other variants include your ability to play a large/short stack, the standard of play at your table and the amount of chips you'll actually be left with if you lose, which, in this situation, was still highly playable with the blinds so short. It won't be a factor to the seasoned pro, but even my existence in the tournament in terms of (1) enjoying myself and (2) gaining experience both admittedly played a small part.

However, the most important factor is not just that I don't want to put my chips in as a severe underdog, but that I might be playing to two Nines, of which could still be re-outdrawn if I were to make it on the Turn. At the time, I didn't believe either player had the flush draw, but considering the pre-flop action and my inability to see their hole cards, this hand remained a definite possibility and one that I needn't to be aware of. What I think Longy's calculations fail to acknowledge is the likelihood of such a holding. It's okay lining up all the possible hands and calculating your percentage, but you need to be aware that some of those possibilities are more likely than others.

I'm still not sure if the decision to fold was a correct one, but this was my thought process nonetheless.

Mateyboy's got the wrong cards...  ;whistle;

Snoops, had you thought about c/raising all-in on the flop?

Yes, but I didn't think they'd fold to a check-raise unless they were bluffing, which I only thought Mateyboy was capable of doing. I'd rather check-fold if I am indeed checking rather than get it in as a 2-1 dog, especially against just one player. If they are weak and checking, then I might as well take it there and then, which I was happy to do.

Rightly or wrongly, I did consider check-calling though.