blonde poker forum

...the odds of 3 people flopping a flush on the flop???

Would have to be one of the sickest pots i've got involved with
just a shame i was a relatively small stack in a small game...

Anyone want to take a guess for fun...

PokerStars Game #13544807842: Tournament #68180141, $3.00+$0.30 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2007/11/29 - 15:39:56 (ET)
Table '68180141 163' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: crosscourtbh (5300 in chips)
Seat 2: doctoro (5630 in chips)
Seat 3: StingLT (7475 in chips)
Seat 4: Monsbjerg (4875 in chips)
Seat 5: jorge5555 (16330 in chips)
Seat 6: Callmedk2 (7235 in chips)
Seat 7: DANDAN33 (40350 in chips)
Seat 8: Mr Trutta (7075 in chips)
Seat 9: bestfake (18395 in chips)
crosscourtbh: posts small blind 100
doctoro: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to crosscourtbh [Ac 7c]
StingLT: folds
Monsbjerg: folds
jorge5555: folds
Callmedk2: folds
DANDAN33: calls 200
Mr Trutta: folds
bestfake: calls 200
crosscourtbh: calls 100
doctoro: checks
*** FLOP *** [5c 3c Qc]
crosscourtbh: bets 200
doctoro: folds
DANDAN33: calls 200
bestfake: raises 1200 to 1400
crosscourtbh: raises 3700 to 5100 and is all-in
DANDAN33: raises 3700 to 8800
bestfake: calls 7400
*** TURN *** [5c 3c Qc] [Kh]
DANDAN33: bets 9400
bestfake: calls 9395 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [5c 3c Qc Kh] [9h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DANDAN33: shows [6c 4c] (a flush, Queen high)
bestfake: shows [Kc Tc] (a flush, King high)
StingLT said, "omg"
crosscourtbh said, "lol"
bestfake collected 26190 from side pot
crosscourtbh: shows [Ac 7c] (a flush, Ace high)
crosscourtbh collected 16100 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 42290 Main pot 16100. Side pot 26190. | Rake 0
Board [5c 3c Qc Kh 9h]
Seat 1: crosscourtbh (small blind) showed [Ac 7c] and won (16100) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 2: doctoro (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: StingLT folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Monsbjerg folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: jorge5555 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Callmedk2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: DANDAN33 showed [6c 4c] and lost with a flush, Queen high
Seat 8: Mr Trutta folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: bestfake (button) showed [Kc Tc] and won (26190) with a flush, King high

On PokerStars?  About evens.

yeah good call. Seriously though must be pretty high.

Say the cards were dealt face up, and u all showed club hands (2 clubs each) the odds of 3 clubs on the board is 433 to 1...

So, the odds of being dealt 2 clubs for    player 1 is 17-1,     player 2  is   22.3 - 1,     player 3   is    31.3

So the odds your all dealt 2 clubs each is 11,865 to 1...

Multiple these =     5,137,545 to 1      - That you all get dealt 2 clubs, then the flop comes club, club, club...

Dived 5,137,545 / 4 for the different suits....   = 1,284,386

So the chance of you and two other players being dealt the same suit, then the flop coming 3 of that same suit is nearly 1.3 million!!


(Quick calulations, could be completely wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!)

Though of course it's like all these questions - the odds of it happening on that specific hand are astronomical, but the probability of this happening in a hand you play at some point in your life is relatively high.

Once you know that three people all hold two of the same suit before the flop I think the chance of the flush flopping is about 0.2%.

Thats the easy bit, 7/46 x 6/45 x 5/44 = 433 to 1...

Its the rest that is hard!

The above is assuming a 3-handed game of course.

You'd have to divide by 84 (9!/6!3!) to allow for a 9-handed game, which reduces the odds to just over 15,000/1*

(*This assumes that all 3 players see a flop, which would not typically happen. Therefore we would have to multiply those odds by some speculative factor for a more accurate probability.)

That's why it's the bit I did :)

my brain hurts.

nh tho.

Assuming players with suited cards (any suit) see flop the average of 28.8% of the time, and a full table has an average of 8.2 players dealt in each hand, three of them will flop a flush every 13,217,000 hands. (approximately)

Unless I just made all that up. There is an 89% chance of this.

Approx 5/3 of all people don't understand fractions or percentages.

I thought 13 mill is a good estimate tbh.

Anyone want to go under/over for £1.50? We can then go ask Sklansky to judge.