blonde poker forum

OK - I'm going to brave a post on here!

Late stages of a MTT, 17 runners left.  Payout is flat until 10th.  Blinds are 15/30k, average stack 360k.  An accident a few hands ago left me with 90k UTG.  Managed a double up, but had to give up the blinds, so am now on the button with 140k and sitting 15/17.

New table, so no info on players.  BB is CL with 600k+.  We are 8 handed.

I get dealt  Ahrt Ts and am planning to shove if pot is unraised when it gets to me.  Folds to cut off who is sitting with 250k, and he raises to 90k.  What do you do now?  Over the top, or fold and wait for the opportunity to be first in?

Fold and wait to be first in.  He might have less than you, but do you want to use your chips to prove it to everyone else at the table?

how has cutoff been playing thus far? if he's been extremely active I would come over the top here...I might do it fairly often actually..but would prefer getting first into an unopened pot.

I think I'd want to be first in, you have almost a full round to do so

You shove, he is auto calling the remaining 50,000. I'd rather take my chance with 87 suited and be live than a hand racing or dominated like A10 off

Fold. Get your chips into the 1st unopened pot you can... With virtually any 2...

not enough info on this player

he may have any 2,he may have u dominated

fold like the others and shove with any 2 the 1st chance u get


Did u call C?

im putting him on KQ os btw.........lol

as I said, no real info on this player as new table.  Last half hour or so have been pretty frustrating though - I've been card dead and when I do get half a hand (as here) there's always been someone shoving in front of me so getting in first has not been easy. When I have had the opportunity to push 1st, I've had complete rubbish, and until the last time I was forced to push UTG I've not been short enough to justify pushing with air.

I dwelled for a while, then went over the top - the outcome is irrelevant, but I did wonder afterwards whether it had been a foolish play and thought I probably should have folded and waited for a better opportunity to get my chips in.  Just wanted to clarify with you guys, and I think, in hindsight, that would have been the way to play it.

Cheers

Hmmm maths question this, i will be honest at first glance I'm unsure how this is going to come out, so in-game i would been like "wtf do i do here". Read on CO is obv massive here.

135k already so, your 90k to win 135k assuming neither sb or bb comes in ,which is likely but their range esp the bb could be wide so it adds to the pot but decreases your chance of winning the pot. Im going to assume this effect is negligible (big assumption i know)

So we need to be getting 3 to 2 against his range. Or 40% chance of winning.

   2,794,480,128  games     0.005 secs   558,896,025,600  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    39.658%     35.41%    04.24%         989644248    118600020.00   { ATo }
Hand 1:    60.342%     56.10%    04.24%        1567635840    118600020.00   { 22+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }

This appears to be the break even range, if he is opening tighter than pass, opening lighter get it in.

In conclusion I get it in against an unknown here as they really should be opening wider than this with hands kj,a rag etc, plus if you win you have a stack which has some fold equity.

How's the maths come in if the BB calls the shove with any two Longy?  (assuming the button also calls) 

Not sure I'd want to play AT in this position.  I'd much rather be first in the pot.  The blinds have just passed so  you have a few hands before it's going to cost you anything again.

I'd prefer to get my chips into any unopened pot, however your hae less than 5 big blinds.  This could be as good an opportunity as you wiill have to get that double up that you so badly need.  If you don't getyour chips in here you could face a situation where by you may not get a pot thats not been opened before it gets to you and the blinds may pass again, by which point your a sitting duck as soon as you do push you can get expected to get looked up in more than one spot.

I sometimes struggle in these situations with marginal hands, something is telling me that I should fold but I also hae that ghost under the table that when I pass my opponent normally shows me a bluff :( sigh!  When I do push I inevitibly push into a monster.

When this short I'd probably prefer getting my chips in first with 64, 65, 67, or some other connecting cards.

I think you are too short to pass, lump it in!

Pretty negligible effect which is what I reckoned in my original assumption if we know he will call with any two, which some players will and be correct to do so. We now can add an extra 60k to the odds meaning 90k to win 195k, giving us over 2 to 1 meaning we need about 31% equity in the pot.

 136,065,154,301  games   363.078 secs   374,754,610  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    33.073%     30.68%    02.40%       41742360994    3261849218.83   { AcTd }
Hand 1:    41.077%     38.93%    02.15%       52965800582    2929335762.33   { 22+, A9s+, KQs, A9o+, KQo }
Hand 2:    25.850%     25.18%    00.67%       34260407002    914996020.83   { random }

What site do you get these from please and do you use it during a tourney to aid with tough descissions in game?  I wonder if it will help me make better descission from time to time?

Its called poker stove and its a downloadable tool http://208.109.202.54/ (weird looking url but its legit)

I don't use it while playing mainly as it would take too long to get the right ranges in and do the calculation. I do however use it for analysing my hands seeing if I made the correct odds decision at the time etc. Some of the results from it are real eye openers to equity that some hands have in certain situations.

thanks

My default is to get it in here.

Give us some examples of 'certain hands v certain hands' which have surprising results? (You dont have to paste all the maths, just the hands and why there 'eye' openers will do!)