blonde poker forum

5 left in an online MTT

3 places paid, 450,350,250

stack sizes 19,000, 13,000, 11,000 (you), 9,000, 3,000

in the CO chip leader pushes in with blinds at 400-800, 6 mins to 600-1,200

you look down at  Ahrt Kh in the SB

chip leader is solid by reputation but has been most active at this final table

play to win and call?

or is the advantage of having AK lost by not being first to raise/re-raise etc?
 

instacallage pls

ditto

i'm so short of confidence, I reckon I will be asking basic questions for a few weeks yet!!

Well as you are ahead of his range you should call, i would, lose the hand, then kick myself for an hour.
Though there is a good argument for passing and stealing the blinds for the next 5 rounds.
Strategy over coinflips, hmmmmm

I believe this is a call because:

- The blinds are pretty big and the chipleader should expect that he has tons of FE. Therefore, we should expect a very wide range that AK is plus cEV against;
- While there is a very short stack that should surely be next out, that doesn't get us into the money;
- It seems that the structure is very fast. Given how effectively level the stacks are to the blinds the reality is surely that we are going to have to get all - in at some point;

That is my instinct - calling is correct.

However, it is possible to quantify this situation with a reasonable degree of accuracy by performing an ICM calculation. Before I do that though, I'd like to hear what you would put the openshover's range at? My feeling is that it could be A2s+ / A5o+ / 22+ / KJs+. Because I can't see him folding any of that. And the BB only has 10BBs so it makes sense to just shove.

his range:

any pair

good Aces, lets say A8 up unsuited and A6 suited up

KQ, maybe KJ

...think he was happy to pick up the blinds and didnt want to see over cards on a flop,..... if called from a  standard raise. ;whistle;

 I would have called with AK....

ICM Equity:

  73.4714
1st: 0.055 2nd: 0.070 3rd: 0.098 4th: 0.165 5th: 0.613

  305.9422
1st: 0.345 2nd: 0.281 3rd: 0.209 4th: 0.127 5th: 0.038

  250.8923
1st: 0.236 2nd: 0.244 3rd: 0.237 4th: 0.201 5th: 0.082

  225.2984
1st: 0.200 2nd: 0.218 3rd: 0.236 4th: 0.235 5th: 0.111

  194.3957
1st: 0.164 2nd: 0.187 3rd: 0.221 4th: 0.272 5th: 0.156

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 287,667,072  games     0.063 secs     4,566,144,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    60.869%     57.33%    03.54%         164906199     10194733.50   { AhKh }
Hand 1:    39.131%     35.59%    03.54%         102371406     10194733.50   { 22+, A8s+, A6o+, KQo }

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ICM Equity:

  77.6433
1st: 0.054 2nd: 0.074 3rd: 0.109 4th: 0.185 5th: 0.577

  186.1895
1st: 0.144 2nd: 0.182 3rd: 0.230 4th: 0.275 5th: 0.169

  259.1112
1st: 0.235 2nd: 0.263 3rd: 0.246 4th: 0.185 5th: 0.072

  337.1819
1st: 0.419 2nd: 0.296 3rd: 0.181 4th: 0.085 5th: 0.020

  189.8741
1st: 0.148 2nd: 0.185 3rd: 0.233 4th: 0.271 5th: 0.162

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There you go. Call.

cheers

My only decision here is which finger to use to click the mouse, i might even display flair and use a toe...

class. pmsl.

Erm there is a mistake in here somewhere Lloyd, I think (correct if im wrong) you have only calculated the equities if he goes on to win the hand and not if he loses the hand.

Simple common sense tells that the bolded equities can't possible be true. By getting involved in an all in situation for our tournament life our chance of finishing 5th should increase dramatically yet they seem to have fallen from around 10% to 2%.

Our chances of finishing 5th are quite simply the chance we lose this hand plus some miracle chip spewing if we win then donk it all back, these calculations only take into account the latter. So are more like 41% or .41.

I still think it will turn out to be +EV call in my experience but actually turns into a -ev call on the bubble often depending on stack sizes.

Yes - you're right. I buggered it up. And I don't have my tools on this computer to redo it. Bah. Sorry folks.  ;marks;

Yeah, you better hide in shame.

Instacall Tighty imo.

I think AK is the hardest hand to play, especially when your confidence is so low.

I have been limping in early position with AK - something picked up by the 2 gods I sent the whole hand history of one of my recent MTT's - this IS a weakness and is caused by loosing with AK over and over again.

Richard, if confidence is really this low, get someone you respect to read over a whole tourney hand history - other than that,,, win a tourney - the confidence soon returns ;)