Title: 5 left and then this Post by: TightEnd on December 20, 2007, 10:52:58 PM 5 left in an online MTT
3 places paid, 450,350,250 stack sizes 19,000, 13,000, 11,000 (you), 9,000, 3,000 in the CO chip leader pushes in with blinds at 400-800, 6 mins to 600-1,200 you look down at Ahrt Kh in the SB chip leader is solid by reputation but has been most active at this final table play to win and call? or is the advantage of having AK lost by not being first to raise/re-raise etc? Title: Re: 5 left and then this Post by: Rookie (Rodney) on December 20, 2007, 10:54:08 PM instacallage pls
Title: Re: 5 left and then this Post by: gatso on December 20, 2007, 10:59:34 PM Title: Re: 5 left and then this Post by: TightEnd on December 20, 2007, 11:00:23 PM i'm so short of confidence, I reckon I will be asking basic questions for a few weeks yet!!
Title: Re: 5 left and then this Post by: LeKnave on December 20, 2007, 11:00:32 PM Title: Re: 5 left and then this Post by: ifm on December 20, 2007, 11:00:57 PM Well as you are ahead of his range you should call, i would, lose the hand, then kick myself for an hour.
Though there is a good argument for passing and stealing the blinds for the next 5 rounds. Strategy over coinflips, hmmmmm Title: Re: 5 left and then this Post by: LuckyLloyd on December 20, 2007, 11:01:34 PM I believe this is a call because:
- The blinds are pretty big and the chipleader should expect that he has tons of FE. Therefore, we should expect a very wide range that AK is plus cEV against; - While there is a very short stack that should surely be next out, that doesn't get us into the money; - It seems that the structure is very fast. Given how effectively level the stacks are to the blinds the reality is surely that we are going to have to get all - in at some point; That is my instinct - calling is correct. However, it is possible to quantify this situation with a reasonable degree of accuracy by performing an ICM calculation. Before I do that though, I'd like to hear what you would put the openshover's range at? My feeling is that it could be A2s+ / A5o+ / 22+ / KJs+. Because I can't see him folding any of that. And the BB only has 10BBs so it makes sense to just shove. Title: Re: 5 left and then this Post by: TightEnd on December 20, 2007, 11:03:18 PM his range:
any pair good Aces, lets say A8 up unsuited and A6 suited up KQ, maybe KJ Title: Re: 5 left and then this Post by: ripple11 on December 20, 2007, 11:12:45 PM ...think he was happy to pick up the blinds and didnt want to see over cards on a flop,..... if called from a standard raise. ;whistle; I would have called with AK.... Title: Re: 5 left and then this Post by: LuckyLloyd on December 20, 2007, 11:33:10 PM his range: any pair good Aces, lets say A8 up unsuited and A6 suited up KQ, maybe KJ ICM Equity: 73.4714 1st: 0.055 2nd: 0.070 3rd: 0.098 4th: 0.165 5th: 0.613 305.9422 1st: 0.345 2nd: 0.281 3rd: 0.209 4th: 0.127 5th: 0.038 250.8923 1st: 0.236 2nd: 0.244 3rd: 0.237 4th: 0.201 5th: 0.082 225.2984 1st: 0.200 2nd: 0.218 3rd: 0.236 4th: 0.235 5th: 0.111 194.3957 1st: 0.164 2nd: 0.187 3rd: 0.221 4th: 0.272 5th: 0.156 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 287,667,072 games 0.063 secs 4,566,144,000 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 60.869% 57.33% 03.54% 164906199 10194733.50 { AhKh } Hand 1: 39.131% 35.59% 03.54% 102371406 10194733.50 { 22+, A8s+, A6o+, KQo } ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ICM Equity: 77.6433 1st: 0.054 2nd: 0.074 3rd: 0.109 4th: 0.185 5th: 0.577 186.1895 1st: 0.144 2nd: 0.182 3rd: 0.230 4th: 0.275 5th: 0.169 259.1112 1st: 0.235 2nd: 0.263 3rd: 0.246 4th: 0.185 5th: 0.072 337.1819 1st: 0.419 2nd: 0.296 3rd: 0.181 4th: 0.085 5th: 0.020 189.8741 1st: 0.148 2nd: 0.185 3rd: 0.233 4th: 0.271 5th: 0.162 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- There you go. Call. Title: Re: 5 left and then this Post by: TightEnd on December 20, 2007, 11:34:15 PM cheers
Title: Re: 5 left and then this Post by: Royal Flush on December 21, 2007, 12:59:17 AM My only decision here is which finger to use to click the mouse, i might even display flair and use a toe...
Title: Re: 5 left and then this Post by: AlexMartin on December 21, 2007, 04:10:21 AM My only decision here is which finger to use to click the mouse, i might even display flair and use a toe... class. pmsl. Title: Re: 5 left and then this Post by: Longy on December 21, 2007, 09:17:29 AM his range: any pair good Aces, lets say A8 up unsuited and A6 suited up KQ, maybe KJ ICM Equity: 73.4714 1st: 0.055 2nd: 0.070 3rd: 0.098 4th: 0.165 5th: 0.613 305.9422 1st: 0.345 2nd: 0.281 3rd: 0.209 4th: 0.127 5th: 0.038 250.8923 1st: 0.236 2nd: 0.244 3rd: 0.237 4th: 0.201 5th: 0.082 225.2984 1st: 0.200 2nd: 0.218 3rd: 0.236 4th: 0.235 5th: 0.111 194.3957 1st: 0.164 2nd: 0.187 3rd: 0.221 4th: 0.272 5th: 0.156 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 287,667,072 games 0.063 secs 4,566,144,000 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 60.869% 57.33% 03.54% 164906199 10194733.50 { AhKh } Hand 1: 39.131% 35.59% 03.54% 102371406 10194733.50 { 22+, A8s+, A6o+, KQo } ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ICM Equity: 77.6433 1st: 0.054 2nd: 0.074 3rd: 0.109 4th: 0.185 5th: 0.577 186.1895 1st: 0.144 2nd: 0.182 3rd: 0.230 4th: 0.275 5th: 0.169 259.1112 1st: 0.235 2nd: 0.263 3rd: 0.246 4th: 0.185 5th: 0.072 337.1819 1st: 0.419 2nd: 0.296 3rd: 0.181 4th: 0.085 5th: 0.020 189.8741 1st: 0.148 2nd: 0.185 3rd: 0.233 4th: 0.271 5th: 0.162 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- There you go. Call. Erm there is a mistake in here somewhere Lloyd, I think (correct if im wrong) you have only calculated the equities if he goes on to win the hand and not if he loses the hand. Simple common sense tells that the bolded equities can't possible be true. By getting involved in an all in situation for our tournament life our chance of finishing 5th should increase dramatically yet they seem to have fallen from around 10% to 2%. Our chances of finishing 5th are quite simply the chance we lose this hand plus some miracle chip spewing if we win then donk it all back, these calculations only take into account the latter. So are more like 41% or .41. I still think it will turn out to be +EV call in my experience but actually turns into a -ev call on the bubble often depending on stack sizes. Title: Re: 5 left and then this Post by: LuckyLloyd on December 21, 2007, 09:42:18 AM Erm there is a mistake in here somewhere Lloyd, I think (correct if im wrong) you have only calculated the equities if he goes on to win the hand and not if he loses the hand. Simple common sense tells that the bolded equities can't possible be true. By getting involved in an all in situation for our tournament life our chance of finishing 5th should increase dramatically yet they seem to have fallen from around 10% to 2%. Our chances of finishing 5th are quite simply the chance we lose this hand plus some miracle chip spewing if we win then donk it all back, these calculations only take into account the latter. So are more like 41% or .41. I still think it will turn out to be +EV call in my experience but actually turns into a -ev call on the bubble often depending on stack sizes. Yes - you're right. I buggered it up. And I don't have my tools on this computer to redo it. Bah. Sorry folks. ;marks; Title: Re: 5 left and then this Post by: scotty2hatty on December 21, 2007, 07:39:05 PM Erm there is a mistake in here somewhere Lloyd, I think (correct if im wrong) you have only calculated the equities if he goes on to win the hand and not if he loses the hand. Simple common sense tells that the bolded equities can't possible be true. By getting involved in an all in situation for our tournament life our chance of finishing 5th should increase dramatically yet they seem to have fallen from around 10% to 2%. Our chances of finishing 5th are quite simply the chance we lose this hand plus some miracle chip spewing if we win then donk it all back, these calculations only take into account the latter. So are more like 41% or .41. I still think it will turn out to be +EV call in my experience but actually turns into a -ev call on the bubble often depending on stack sizes. Yes - you're right. I buggered it up. And I don't have my tools on this computer to redo it. Bah. Sorry folks. ;marks; Yeah, you better hide in shame. Instacall Tighty imo. Title: Re: 5 left and then this Post by: M3boy on December 21, 2007, 08:14:00 PM I think AK is the hardest hand to play, especially when your confidence is so low.
I have been limping in early position with AK - something picked up by the 2 gods I sent the whole hand history of one of my recent MTT's - this IS a weakness and is caused by loosing with AK over and over again. Richard, if confidence is really this low, get someone you respect to read over a whole tourney hand history - other than that,,, win a tourney - the confidence soon returns ;) |