blonde poker forum

DISCLAIMER: this isn't an interesting story.  It's not for lots of money.  I played a horrible hand and found myself in a bad way, and know that these situations are often quantifiable.  I also know that the answer to this question is:  "Don't play PLO/8 tourneys - they are stupid."  Just in case anyone was going to suggest that.

OK here's the deal - I have 23,000 (8th place/19 remaining/ coupleofhundredrunners)  Blinds: 2k/4k  This is obviously crap, and it's all gotten a bit random.

Dynamic - a couple of guys have all the chips.  There isn't much preflop raising, and if there is, it usually picks up the chunky blinds.  There is, however, limp-checking.  I am at this point feeling short, and wondering where my evening went.

SO I pick up late Ks Kd Tc 4h, folds to me.  I know this is bad.  But I raise anyway (pot) and cross my fingers.  A shorter stack shoves (9k>).  Fine.  No problem.  Then the big blind big stack re-raises (me) all in. 

Here's the problem.  I know (not 99%, 100%) that he has AAxx where one or both x is low.  I am fairly sure that this is one of the worst situations to be in in this game, ever.

Here's what twodimes said on the actual hands:
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boards
cards           scoop   HIwin   HIlos  HItie   LOwin   LOlos  LOtie     EV
Ks Tc  Kd  4h   91249  143311  356633     56       0       0      0  0.235
7c Ad  Ahrt  3h  142433  247728  250045   2227  112977  123915  14680  0.450
Aspades 2c  8d  Qh   70963  106678  391039   2283  155415   81233  14680  0.316

With one opposing hand known (pretty much) should I call off my lame <10k?  Sure, if I fold I am autoallin within 3 hands.  But four random cards have a better shot at doubling back to my previous stack than I have to stay in this tournament right now.  Plus, I am drawing (thin) for half the pot, much of the time. 

Have to call 9kish into 39k.  If I win this pot, I am still way behind the monster stacks in the tournament.

OK so I called and spiked a King, no low, because my Win Lever was down. 

But from a tournament point of view was this as defensible as I pretended I was sure it was to Dana?

Oh my god I can't believe you're still whining about this hand. Let it go, man.

You can't pass.

Fold, wait for sixes UTG and  3 bet shove?

(sorry)

Just to go back over the action, you obviously want a fold preflop as your hand hates most flops and besides you're too short to be playing flops anyway really so I think it's a mistake to raise one of the bigger stacks big blinds as they are the most likely to call and put you to a tough decision if they flop a draw of some kind. But you already acknowledged that so i'll stop beating you with a stick.

If I was going to raise with this sort of hand, I'd be doing it on a medium stacks big blind or a very tight short stack.

As played I think 100% the BB has AA is a bit ott, i mean he surely does the same with other premium hands such as A2QQ AQK2ds etc. so  you have enough equity to call here, despite it being a not great spot. You don't really have the chips to find a better spot though so  I call, get lucky and get chips.

You only need about 18% equity for this to be a +ev call and given that you will have 2 BBs left if you fold you should gobble up 23.5% equity (which will be higher cos he surely doesn't have AA all the time!) like it's salmon en croute bathed in a delicate lemon sauce and you have worse munchies than cheech and chong the time their local supermarket ran out of wotsits.

Noflops:

Right, OK I didn't.  And in most probable worlds I would be out, knowing exactly how likely I was to be out.  I would take any four random cards over this hand gladly for the lot, no discussion instacall blah blah blah.  But how close to the edge was it?  Closer than worth no consideration, surely. 

If he'd turned his hand over (if you could do that online) and showed me say AAK2?  Or worse, what about KKA2?  Is there any point at which you could ever swallow a half-stack bet and pass?  Maths says yes, tourney strategy says...I don't know, that's why I am talking about it.  Chances of winning tournament with short stack vs. chances of winning tournament with 49k obv skew it, but it's not like this was a pot for the chip lead.

This is a theoretical point only.  It's a silly tourney and I wasn't ever really going to fold.  But I don't think it's totally obvious.

OK JC - 1) I was sure he had Aces.  I told Dana, "He has Aces.  What should I do?"  Sure enough, he had Aces.  Pretend my equity has no chance of going up, for the sake of argument.

Even so, yes 23% OK fine, tick it off. 

But there is a possible hypothetical situation not really very far from this one where you should fold.  I think.  I don't care any more. 

Have to fold there for me Jen. If you are 100% certain he has aces and you have no low draw whatsoever the best you can hope for is to have 24% equity. The low arrives 63% of the time so if you take that into account as well you are playing a pot you really dont need to. Better to get your remaining stack in with 4 random cards imo in the next hand or 2 and try and double/treble up than try to hit a miracle king.

Hilo tourneys- no pointy no play in raised pots.