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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: LOJ on January 20, 2008, 04:08:26 AM



Title: Call or fold????
Post by: LOJ on January 20, 2008, 04:08:26 AM

Can I have opinions on following hand please?

Stoke Circus Casino  £15 Fo 121 runners.  Last 25.  Payout 15 top heavy.  In BB with 30k chips Blinds. ave 24k  Blinds at 3k - 6k.

SB who was even with before last hand, but lost a chunk pushing the BB with 33 only to run into 10 10 and drop down to 20k.  Cut off hasnt played a hand for a round.

Passed round to cut off who pushes all in for 18k button folds SB moves all in for 20k.  I look down to see  7c 5s.....

What should I do in this spot???

Thanks...



Title: Re: Call or fold????
Post by: ACE2M on January 20, 2008, 11:35:47 AM
fold


Title: Re: Call or fold????
Post by: Graham C on January 20, 2008, 12:14:44 PM
fold


Title: Re: Call or fold????
Post by: kinboshi on January 20, 2008, 12:52:47 PM
fold


Title: Re: Call or fold????
Post by: Laxie on January 20, 2008, 12:57:40 PM
every day of the week.......FOLD!


Title: Re: Call or fold????
Post by: Longy on January 20, 2008, 02:46:30 PM
I think this is probably quite close especially if neither them are rocks, but im swaying towards fold but cos of YOUR stack size which does seem to have some fold equity which it won't have if you call and lose.

Ok 14k to win 47k so I reckon we need about 23% equity in the pot.

 52,295,635,854  games   108.500 secs   481,987,427  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    22.314%     22.09%    00.23%       11549694667    119325014.50   { 7c5s }
Hand 1:    31.728%     30.42%    01.31%       15906798556    685815616.00   { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A3o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2:    45.958%     44.70%    01.26%       23377298443    656703557.50   { 66+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }

Looks close but I fold.


Title: Re: Call or fold????
Post by: boldie on January 20, 2008, 09:49:02 PM
It's a fold..but I hate it and have found myself calling here plenty a time..in fact if they were suited I probably wouldcall.


Title: Re: Call or fold????
Post by: LOJ on January 21, 2008, 01:54:24 PM


Thanks for the replies.  I posted as I found this a difficult spot to lay down.  Although I had a half decent chip stack, I really wanted to go for the win & felt with the blinds high and with only 5xBB Left that I could justify a call in this spot.  Ive read a lot on Blonde forum about any 2 cards with less than 10xBB is the way to go?

The payout wasnt to good with 5 - 15 payout being £50 each, and thought that for my 5 hours spent that could this really be a good spot to go with even with not such a good starting hand to get up the cash ladder so I could really try and build a chip stack for FT.

Anyhow I did pass.  Cut off flipped  Ad 3h  & Small blind  4h 4s.

Board came  5c 7s Ts 3c Tc

I think it played on my mind after, that I should have called the extra 14k to give myself a chance of such a large pot but with the starting hand range that Longy has highlighted that I would have been pretty dominated by both so passed it.  When I saw the board I was a bit annoyed but wondered what I should have done without seeing the board.

Made FT, with 40k chips and blinds at 6k/12k and my push with QJ on the button on second round to steal the blinds was called by 99 in the BB and I didnt hit and was out in 8th place. 

The earlier hand played on my mind when I thought I should have called which would have given me more fire power on FT.





Title: Re: Call or fold????
Post by: LuckyLloyd on January 21, 2008, 03:40:47 PM
Thing is, judging by the structure and the average stack size it kinda doesn't really matter whether you call or fold here over the longrun.


Title: Re: Call or fold????
Post by: gatso on January 21, 2008, 03:52:00 PM


  Ive read a lot on Blonde forum about any 2 cards with less than 10xBB is the way to go?


when people say this they are talking about getting their money in first, not calling. that gives you 2 ways to win the pot