blonde poker forum

$100+$10 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) -
9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Peet3D (1535 in chips)
Seat 2: mwlucian (6670 in chips)
Seat 3: Steke (2010 in chips)
Seat 4: jmut23 (775 in chips)
Seat 9: Hero (2510 in chips)
Hero: posts small blind 75
Peet3D: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Kc  Aspades]
mwlucian: raises 300 to 450
Steke: raises 1560 to 2010 and is all-in
jmut23: folds
Hero?

chip leader is solid, only shown the goods, been paid off by donks

Pusher is unknown


your play?

I get it in here.

Im sure even if are 3 bettor is solid he does this with aq+ 99+ and therefore we are good against his range.

Fold for me. I'm expecting to be racing here more often than not and think one of my outs will be gone..not ideal to race in that situation for me.

I call here. Think he does this with AJ+ and 88+

havent read the topic yet but if you have AK get them chips in the middle ALL IN

Fold, if CL is decent, then chances are he has a hand which could involve 1 or 2 of your outs.   Other guy probably knows that the CL is ok too, so will push with something decent - AK, pairs 99+, could easily have a made hand and your outs could be limited by getting involved.  Let the two fight it out and wait for a better spot.

I'm probably calling, maybe if it was an extended STT with plenty of play left I could justify a fold...

I reshove and isolate the pusher, get rid of the CL who will fold a lot of hands now with all the action thats gone on so far, I dont think we're in bad shape at all against the shover as he rarely has AA/KK here.  If the CL has raised AA/KK here then its just unlucky.

Fold.  Find a better spot with less of a race factor

fold, you don't want to be racing this early if you can help it.

I'm surprised so many people suggest folding because for me this is a super easy all in. An unknown's 3-betting range is going to include at least AQ, probably AJ and A10, and pairs at least down to 9's, and occasionally a weaker hand like 910s. Against any range that isn't insanely tight this is a +chipEV push, and the only argument for folding would be if +chipEV didn't amount to +$$EV but that isn't the case here.

Allinallinallinallinallinallinallinallin

Go all in.

Shove.

Shoveski?

Push.

if your aiming to achieve a 40% itm ratio at a high level, you really dont want to be flipping as your itm chances will drop from 100% to 50% in one hand. yeah you might be ahead but more than likely not.

Erm I couldn't give two hoots what my ITM is. ROI is the key in sngs. Also avoiding flipping in sngs in the latter stages is near impossible and we ahead of his range if it includes aq making us a favourite.

So are you saying it doesn't include the 3 bettor range doesn't include aq, or something else?

BTW i think there is valid arguement for folding just no one has presented it yet.

yes roi is the most important, but 60% of the prizepool is made up of making the money therefore itm should not be ignored.

Hero is second in chips and chip leader is solid player who has 'only shown the goods'.  Why would you push here?  Any pair is better than no pair and surely one of them has some sort of pair.  Add to that, the AK aren't soooooted, so removes some of your potential draws.  Even if neither of them has a pair, do you want to use your chips to prove it?  Especially when there's another pretty low stack still sitting at the table, I wait for a better spot...preferably heads up with the chip leader.  But then, I'm still learning so be gentle if my thinking is well wrong.

I folded.

The result is irrelevant of what happened next..but I won the SNG LOL

My..undoubtedly flawed..thinking was

- there are two shorter stacks who have to gamble before I do..itm rationale I suppose
- the large stack can eliminate me
- the pusher can cripple me
- I want to be the pusher with AK not the caller unless we are at the typical stage of a SNG/stack sizes where I am compelled to


I would be very interested to hear Longy's "correct" justification for folding

ITM is just a by product of trying to achieve the highest possible ROI. We are trying to make the most money, right? Therefore all our decisions are based on improving our ROI.

Like as chipleader on the bubble we would just sit there and wait for the bubble to burst but no good sng players, shove any two cards as this improves our ROI but decreases our ITM. We never should be do anything to increase our ITM to decrease our ROI.

theres no shame in passing ak on the bubble either.

agreed

Well i think you have just said it somewhere in there.

Assuming someone gets knocked out in this hand , we have two shorter stacks than us on the bubble and at this level the chipleader will no doubt just dominate the table allowing us to make the money.

If we get our money in here the chip leader folds alot I think as our hand has to be jj+ ak+ here and he is likely to be miles behind our range and fold.If we do win we are still not chip leader on the bubble and therefore are likely to have to sit there while we bleed chips as the chipleader dominates the table and we can never call without aa or kk until the bubble bursts.

Of course the worst scenario which happens the most often is that the 3bettor in our hand doubles through the chip leader and we are forced to cling on in a non bubble situation with the two big stack shoving into our blinds.

I still get it in here but it is close imo.

None at all, done it many a time.

All in all day every day every time get big stack crush