blonde poker forum

45 man sng, top 6 pay. Average 4500, 15 left, No reads

How good a re-steal spot is this?

Seat 1: coldkegs2go (1,670)
Seat 2: Killah Bs (2,260)
Seat 3: Katatunga (3,109)
Seat 4: zzpops (4,180)
Seat 5: obx65 (8,680)
Seat 6: millertime6 (8,650)
Seat 7: dino1980 (3,265)
Seat 8: Agamemnon_king (3,356)
Killah Bs posts the small blind of 120
Katatunga posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dino1980 [Js Qs]
zzpops folds
obx65 folds
millertime6 has 15 seconds left to act
millertime6 raises to 720
Dino1980:??

IMO

Pros:
-We have a nice stack size to do this with and the raiser has plenty if they fold but not so much that losing pot doesn’t hurt them

-Once we let the blinds go through us we have barely any fold equity left - although this is actually only of much use against two of the stacks at our table as a raise from the others pretty much comitts them

- although not in lolshoveaments mode yet (copyright noflopshomer) we will be once blinds pass through us + blinds go up every 6 mins

- we are playing for top three, not to limp in to the money

Somewhere in the middle (lol)

- against his range I don’t think Q-J plays too bad (40-60ish), although running it thru a fold% calculator I have, we need him to fold 41% of the time to make this break even (assuming we’re a 36-63 dog)

Cons:

- No reads
- It’s a mid position raise not a late pos raise

- a player behind us could wake up with a hand (a couple are shortstacked*)

- we have nothing invested in the pot

- there are no antes in this tournament

*Not necessarily a bad thing as two of the stacks behind us are desperate so will shove with a wildish range but we would rather shove and everyone fold than get looked up

Its a decent shove spot tbh, but ur hand is in terrible shape against the hands he calls with. I prefer a more junk type hand here with less likelihood of domination. Also id be much more inclined to pick on zzpopz and Katatunga given stack sizes.

You've admitted you have no reads - how do you know what his range is?

If you're going to resteal with QJ then you really need to know if he's the sort of player that will fold KQ, AJ, KJ here, as calling with these kills you.

As Alex said, you're much better doing this with crappy connectors or total junk, just so you're likely to have live cards if he calls. I'm a big fan of restealing but would only do it with QJ if I was almost certain the villain's calling range was absolute premium only.

good post andrewt.

Image is everything here for you and him, you need an opinion on him here to shove, why do you have no read? down to 15 from 45.

Is he going to call you is the be all and end all here, if hes going to call your behind and potentially in terrible shape and 0 is more likely than top 3 and thats not a good spot.

If hes aware then his range for calling you with his stack is very big (basically every hand thats beating you).

With no read i fold and be annoyed that i didn't know if he was a folder or not.

Table break when down to 18 players, he was moved to my right.

I dont shove against this oppo in this spot personnally, not with 14-15 BB's, fold and be patient...

Your table position is too bad to shove this hand for that amount. But attempting to look for these types of spots is definitely the correct mindset imo.

tyty every1 for your replies. As an aside, and not being results orienatated here, I got called in two spots (orig raiser + shorty) by A-K, results irrelevant but I ran the numbers and against two players holding A-K (didn't run actual holdings just A-Ko and A-Ks) i've got 40% equity in comparison to their 30% and 30% . This surprised me as althoygh they've obv got each others outs, i still have to hit my 6 outs (+ flush outs) to win the pot so was surprised to learn i was a fav.

you weren't favourite

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 197,388,576  games     0.500 secs   394,777,152  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    41.451%     41.29%    00.16%          81498078       321264.00   { QsJs }
Hand 1:    29.275%     03.01%    26.26%           5946921     51837696.00   { AKs, AKo }
Hand 2:    29.275%     03.01%    26.26%           5946921     51837696.00   { AKs, AKo }

Nah, Nick, what he means is that you are still a dog to win the hand. Their figures are skewed because the liklehood is that they split the pot.

Thanks Lloyd, i did figure it was a bit odd and that explains it. I actually made a post on another forum to the effects of - i'm a a fav, that can't be right - but got no constrcutive replies.

 :o

you mean there are other pages on T'internet ??

p0rn.com obv

hence the irrelevant replies ;)

sorry, i should have explained. i had a huge argument online with a 5/10 plo player recently on basically the same thing and he just wouldn't have it that he was not favourite in the hand.

I sent this hand to Jennifear too who has an awesome record in these low stakes 45 man jobbies and she sent me a very nice reply which i figured I'd share as it was very helpful in showing why it should be a fold, her thoughts are in bold... p.s i'm not 100% sure if she thinks there are 15 left in this or 8 when she is talking about our equity, i haven't had time to check or ask

comments below, your thought process is pretty good...but you missed one key component of this hand.

IMO

Pros:
-We have a nice stack size to do this with and the raiser has plenty if they fold but not so much that losing pot doesn’t hurt them

careful here, our stack size is actually too small... you are ideally looking for spots where we have 5-7x the size of the raise.  Our raise being only 2500 more to call for a pot of 7000 is hurting us.

-Once we let the blinds go through us we have barely any fold equity left - although this is actually only of much use against two of the stacks at our table as a raise from the others pretty much comitts them

Even when the blinds climb to 300 you'll still have 3000 left which isn't horrible.


- although not in lolshoveaments mode yet we will be once blinds pass through us + blinds go up every 6 mins

- we are playing for top three, not to limp in to the money

careful.... this is not at all true in this particular spot....
 
The biggest factor in this decision is actually ICM!  In a balanced prize pool, this wouldn't be such a factor.  Here, in a 45 man, it's HUGE!!!  When I do the math below, this will quickly become apparent.
 
(A huge pro that you missed was that the shortest stacks already folded, which makes the middle-short stack the BB, a proper steal target)

Somewhere in the middle (lol)

- against his range I don’t think Q-J plays too bad (8-9ss would be better) (40-60ish), although running it thru a fold% calculator I have, we need him to fold 40% of the time to make this break even (assuming we’re a 36-63 dog)
As a $10 45 man sng player with no reads i'd range him just about thus:77+,A9s+,KTs+,QJs,ATo+,KJo+
So if we need him to fold 40% of the time to break even if he folds any of A-To, K-Jo, K-Qo, A-9s or A-Ts then my my calcs it is a profitable play

Your hand is awesome, and one of the better reasons to make this play.  It's one of the best resteal hands out there, and fares very well agaisnt most ranges.  It's not quite as good as the ultimate resteal hand (small PP), but it's a VERY good resteal hand.


Cons:

- No reads

so we haven't seen him raise and fold on the same betting round

- It’s a mid position raise not a late pos raise

agree

- a player behind us could wake up with a hand (a couple are shortstacked*)

true

- we have nothing invested in the pot

not so important... if its +EV, it's +EV


- there are no antes in this tournament

That's normally a problem, but in this case, it helps to reduce the pot odds that the original raiser would have.  With antes, his pot odds are better than 2-1 to make this call!


*Not necessarily a bad thing as two of the stacks behind us are desperate so will shove with a wildish range but we would rather shove and everyone fold than get looked up

Final determination:
 
If this is a $24+2 45 man trny on FTP, the prizes are 410, 270, 173, 108, 65, 54.  Sixth place money is unusually high for a MTT/SNG compared to first place cash.
 
Should we get called, and lose, our equity is 0.
 
Should we fold, our equity is something like: $116
 
Should we shove, and the raiser folds, our equity is something like:  $142
 
Should we shove, and get called, and win the hand, our equity is something like: $193
 
So going with your calculations of his calling range being 60% of his raising range, and 36% winrate when he wins:
 
40% of the time, we shove, we do not get called, and win $26 equity.
22% of the time, we shove, get called, and win.  We win $77 equity.
38% of the time, we shove, get called, and lose.  We lose $116 equity.
 
If we shove this 100 times, we end up with
40x26=1040. profit from the times he folds
22x77=1694. profit from the times he calls and we win anyway
38x(-116)=4408. loss from the times he calls and we lose
-----------------------
-1674 (/100) = $16.74 loss per hand!
 
If he folds 60%:
60x26=1560. profit from the times he folds
14x77=1078. profit from the times he calls and we win anyway
26x(-116)=-3016  loss from the times he calls and we lose
-----------------------
-378 (/100) = $3.78 loss per hand!
 
So you would actually need him (and the others behind us) to raise with intent to fold something like 64% of the time just to break even.
 
I don't think you have those numbers here, because
- his pot odds are pretty good
- the chance he has a hand raising from MP are not too shabby
 
So, in conclusion, it's a bad spot, but would be a very good one if:
 
- we had a few more chips
- we had seen the raiser raise/fold at least once
- this was not the bubble of a 45 man SNG on FTP (which is uber-similar to a 9 man bubble)
 
The last of the three points being most important.

Mmmm. That's a very, very helpful response you received. You must have asked nicely!

I couldn't have worked out and dealt with the problem in such a precise manner tbh. It just shows how easy it is to be lazy and work off instinct without sitting out and putting the hard work in to get the math down cold.

I took a sit and go lesson with her in November, she's very helpful to her former students and she from time to time sends entire sit and go HHs (mostly ones with interesting bubble dynamics) with her reasoning for plays. She has helped me plug a few sit and go leaks, even if my sharkscope doesn't reflect that.

lol instashoveamanets

This is a pretty standard shove for me, as for reads, just assume standard internet player, you don't need to know that for sure.

BS, ur still using blonde to gain a rep for a lag image. Ur a nit, admit it.