blonde poker forum

Derek Kelly, of Gutshot, got Jen & myself debating this in Dublin last night. It's probably been on Gutshot before, but there's no right or wrong answer, it's a matter of opinion..... Derek gave me his permission to run it here, so I will. It's an old chstnut really, but it IS interesting in my view.

It's the first hand of the WSOP biggie, $10,000 entry.

Button is in seat 1.

Seat 4 goes all-in. Seat 5 calls all-in.

You are in seat 7. What is the biggest hand you'd pass in this spot?

Derek claims that several Pros got it "right". I don't think there IS a right, necessarily, but what's your answer, & please explain why.

Off the top of my head and with a 5 day hangover I'd stab at Queens.

Wouldn't want to be facing two overs so early or the overpair.

I don't know about Kings. Think I'd be too tempted by a 30k stack to pass them.

KK

I don't care to divulge  :-[

Me - Kings

Did the pro suggest folding aces so they can outplay the table rather than risk the outdraw?

Sklansky says to pass kings in a similar sort of situation in his tourney book. I ain't passing aces though. This ain't some kind of pass aces question is it?

I think I would pass any hand here, whats the best I could be, 60% fav?

No, it's NOT a "pass Aces" type question.

But you might ask yourself what the geezer in Seat 4 had to go all-in for 10,000, with 75 chips in the pot, & how seat 5 would have viewed this......

And here's me thinking that I was a rock !

There was a long running debate on gutshot about passing Aces in this situation. Would you want to be outdrawn and labelled the first out. Yes, I'd risk it for the odds are I would be early chip leader instead. I'd pass anything else though.

Still a 60% shot at 30k though.

Yes but I'm better than 60% fave to get their chips anyway

Well, he may have thought he had AK or TT. Folk tend to shove it in with those hands cos they don't want to play the flop with them.

I'm a huge under dog to the field so I'm calling with KK or AA. If I felt I was average, I'd call with AA. If I was as arrogant as Mr Hellmuth I'd  pass everything so I could use my 'skill' to outplay the field of 8,000 people later with less risk to my stack.

3-1!!
nothing, i'd call with any 2 :)up

I think player 4 has AA and player 5 has a gun

If the calling player has the goods to call ie QQ or KK, then aces must be a call from me.

Still confused about kings though.....

I have already mentioned this in another thread but Paul Phillips saying he would take a true 50/50 to double up first hand of WSOP was an eye opener for me. IIRC Sklansky also says average players should be gambling even when they've got slightly the worst of it. As a worse than average player I now lump it in at anything up to a 4/1 dog :)up

player 4 can't have AA or KK (why go allin)likely to have AK, QQ, JJ, maybe 1010, player 5 could have AA or KK or AK (though not much else, unless he's stupid).
So, i would pass KK and call with AA because the best hand i'm likely to be against is KK (AA is highly unlikely if i have em).
Though if either player 4 or 5 are scandies they could have anything :D
I suppose though there is a good case for passing anything because you are gonna be racing 2 players

though Ironside says i'm a fish

I think im with the majority i pass kings but not aces in a month of sundays. Tho red dogs conundrum with the gun maybe you could let the aces go depends how big player 5's gun is(or is that a bit personal).

I would probably have overselpt (they start the wsop at midday?!?!?) so no worries for me!!


Having said that if i was at the table i call with AA and muck the rest, although i am pretty sure the other 2 hands are AA and KK i take the risk to gain 5k in chips. No-one is a good enough player to pass this kind of edge in a field that big, and i might get lucky enough to be up against KK and KK!!!

I would love to be first out of the wsop and AA all in pre flop as the hand! What a story! Better than "well i made the top 3000"

As a rookie i would say the same..only hand i would play is AA..but saying that i did just that tonight AA v 88 and guess what 8 on the flop and another 8 on the river grrrrrrrrr

I would pass Aces, I don't think I could improve. If it was head to head you couldn't get me out, but I believe I am calling dead with 2 players all-in. Sounds a bit daft but I would probably play kings with 2 in already. But I am a fish so don't listen to me.

a lot depends on the situation really, have players 4 and 5 brought in themselves?? or are they sponsored??? if both or player 5 have bought in i pass anything really, but if both are sponsored i call with pockets 8's or more, hell maybe even decent suited connectors are worth  apop

...............bob....................bob..................bob...................(or the sound of a fish gasping for air??)

So you would pass aces but probably play kings?!?!?!?!?

How can you be calling dead with AA preflop?

If it is true that you would pass aces preflop then you're in the wrong game - to pass aces pre-flop at any time in a tourney is wrong in my opinion unless you are playing in a super satellite where you have enough chips to have secured your seat or you are at a final table with 3 or 4 people all-in in front of you which means you make a substantial jump in prize money.

All this talk that Phill Hellmuth would pass aces because he has the skill and ability to outplay his opponents is all very well and good but it still doesnt stop someone who he outplays to hit runner runner for a backdoor flush to knock him out. He's also more likely to be better at outplaying his opponents when he has a $30k to $10k chip advantage over the rest of the table.

I can't believe people would pass AA here. About a 66% chance of having 30k after 1 hand in a 6000 player tournament how much of an edge do you want?

Biggest hand I pass is QQ or AK.

I don't have an edge over field, I'm playing AA and KK.

You would have to assume the 2nd player who calls has AA so the first man must have KK or worse (if you have the other 2 aces). I think that you would be playing for a chop pot against a man who could easily catch. I dont fancy a badbeat in the first hand of the world series I would much rather outplay myself and throw my chips away later so I fold any hand in this spot. I did play aces in a similar situation at the Bellagio last year the first hand and found myself up against 10 10 and AA. The other AA made a flush.

You got be against two big pairs here so I would fold any pair except aces - KK, QQ. JJ or TT included. If they both had AQ or AK then I woiuld kick myself.

I think you want a suited connector to call this one - 7/8 or 8/9 will do me!  ;-)

But I know I would fold to two all in's in reality - why go out early on a half chance i would rather wait for a heads up situation than a 3 way.

I was talking to the camel before the main event this year... and he said that if he was to get aces in the first level he was just going to move allin!

As he thought it was likely that he could get a bad call for all his chips! I have to agree with him, many players could have called the first allin with qq...

I actually saw something similar this year, from my good friend and movetastic Latif... He is under the gun blinds are 150-300 he moves allin for 10k guy in mid position dwells and calls leaving himself with 8k!

What do they turn over??? LATIF AQoff and MATEY BOY 1010... now this was terrible by both in my opinion, latif catches the q by the way! However TIKAY said that he defo would've called with the 1010!

cards                 win   %win     lose  %lose      tie   %tie     EV
As Ac   27939   2.04   306055  22.33  1036760  75.63  0.398
Ad Ah   27939   2.04   306055  22.33  1036760  75.63  0.398
Kc Kd  278116  20.29  1086852  79.29     5786   0.42  0.204

If it is indeed 2 pairs of Aces v another pair (in this case kings)

Your EV is ~11950 chips. (30030 * 0.398).

I'm not sure it's worth it but then you can never be sure they have aces, I definately wouldn't want to call with less though.

KK but it would take me at least 4 minutes of chin rubbing and a switch to auto-dwell. I would not pass AA - no way!

with no reads and unless i knew anyone.

its as mentioned possible that no 4 is trying to take the pot down pre flop with any kind of mid to high pocket pair or AK. Seat 5 call would worry me as he has to have the goods.....me on that basis i`m playing KK , AA and folding everything else....i`m not that good to get it back later down the line unless i`ve got me james bond specs on.
I have to take the chance to get chips early...being first out would be no worse thanh grinding my teeth into the table for passing KK or AA and seeing it hold up.

id play AA and bin KK and hope to see an ace on the flop

id never fold aces preflop not even against 3 allins but id might ditch kings but im not sure. if io ran kings into aces on the 1st hand and lost i win nothing if i do the same on the bubble i win the same so i might even go with kings, really unsure

At least if you get busted first hand in the WSOP 2006 you would have two weeks to lounge about waiting for your return flight. :D

It's an 11am start actually.

Difficult question...

I would have said that the first guy went all in with aces to try and look weak but you said its not a pass the aces question so maybe...

He went all in with A-k and was petrified of seeing a flop and losing his stack by being outplayed in the first hand (he was thinking that he was 50-50 with anything that called him except aces or kings you see). The second guy clearly sees this as weakness so has probably put him on a middle pair and called with J-J or Q-Q.

I don't think i could bring myself to pass the K-K here, although saying it and doing it are two different things.

Still, i think there is a trick to this question that we're all missing.

No trick SupaMonkey, & no right or wrong answer.

But if I were in seat 5 with ANY sort of hand, I'd have to wonder what on earth Seat 4 was holding. And thats BEFORE we get to seat 7!

I fold KK in this spot but would call with 67suited . Go hard or go home

are you gonna reveal what your opinion is Tikay?

lol - he'd call with J4 off. easy

Personally I think that this is a pretty straightforward problem.

If I were holding AA in seat 7 it's an easy call because only one of my opponents could possibly be holding AA like me whilst the other could be holding a lower pair although it is also possible both opponents are holding KK each (however unlikely it may seem) or AK each (again unlikely as I have two of the Aces).

The worst scenario for me would be if each had different lower pairs like KK and QQ because then there would be four outs against me but I still rate to win bigtime in the long run as when I win I triple up in this specific scenario.

Regardless of what the opponents hold when I have AA I still rate to make good money on the all in call.

If I had KK in seat 7 I would have to ask myself what could the other two players have to be prepared to go all in. The very minimum they could possibly have would be AK each in which case I would be happy to call but I can't see that as a real possibility and they certainly do not have AQ each and wouldn't or shouldn't make the play with both of them having pairs below Queens which in themselves would be extemely unlikely. Hence although the first player may conceivably have a gresater range of hands to play this way (AK AA or KK) the second player really cannot have anything other than AA with a remote chance of KK.

Although players are very diverse in the way they play their hands you are kidding yourself if you think that someone would move all in on the first level in an early position without at least a very big hand (AA or KK) and the second player almost definitely has AA (or very remotely KK). In fact I would take evens both the first two have AA which makes your fold with anything in seat 7 an easy one.

Hence you can only conclude that the first player in can only be holding AK or far more likely AA or KK and the second player definitely has KK or AA and very likely AA is the only real option open to him.

As such you really are looking at two of you holding AA whilst the other then has KK and you had better make sure you are holding one pair of Aces in seat 7.

This then becomes a simple math problem

With AA v AA v KK (The second most likely scenario given the betting as the first would be that the other two have AA each)
The AA each win 40% of the time (or 80% between them if we ignore flushes which are the same for both pairs of aces) where you go from 10k to 15k each whilst the KK goes from 10k to 30k 20% of the time. so its an easy call.

With AA v KK v KK
Your AA wins 96.5% whilst the KK's win the remaining 3.5% of the times so the call is again a no brainer.
So bearing this in mind all pairs from KK down have to be folded and non pairs just are not a feasible option.

With AA v KK v AK
AA wins roughly 85%, KK 11% and 4% AK

Calling all in with KK is a non option as you cannot realistically expect your opponents to be both holding AK.

Of course there are some players who go all in with a crappy hand like 72 on the first hand and show it but I have not seen people do this from early position but anything is possible as no info has been given about any of your rivals.

For the maths sake if we had AA v KK v QQ
(Depending on the suits but it makes small differences) the AA win 66% of the time so again you have an easy call as you triple up when you win.

Can't see any grey areas to this answer unless you delude yourself about the hands that your earlier positioned rivals went all in with.

In summary then you clearly call with AA in seat 7 and fold everything else.

Problem is you will most likely die before you find yourself in such a position in real life and are unlikely to ever see it).

Me? I'd fold anything axcept AA in a shot.

But a good player might not.

For me, it (playing in the WSOP) would be an experience to savour, & I genuinely believe I'd have a chance of cashing, though very little chance of winning. (Which is half my problem). And I don't wanna gamble in a 3 way pot at this stage for all my chips, I'd rather "settle" & feel out the table, & try to play big pots on my terms, ideally one on one. The time to gamble is later, imo.

It is possible that I'd have a better chance by gambling, as opposed to trying to outplay folks. But if my - or your - even money shots hold up most of the time, as they do some nights, I can make the money, easy.

But as I'm unlikely ever to play the WSOP Biggie, it's all academic to me.

Anyway, I've retired from WSOP events - I wanna preserve my 100% WSOP cashes record!

"I don't wanna gamble in a 3 way pot at this stage for all my chips"

It's not gambling when you are a good favourite in the pot as otherwise you are saying you need to have the absolute nuts to put all your chips into the middle. With AA you have as good as it gets to the nuts pre flop against two opponents but not with KK or less.

Betting is the language of No Limit Poker and all in bets pre flop and all in calls basically shout AA KK or AK to you but when the blinds are small and stacks deep then they SCREAM AA and AA.

Hence everything other than AA ins eat 7 gets folded and the better players would see the bets in this way.

If by some remote chance neither of the first two had AA it's just too bad but a bare Ace against your KK still has a 30% chance of winning.

KK or worse is an EASY fold in seat 7.

However it is EXTREMELY LIKELY that you are an underdog and gambling if you call in this spot with anything less than Aces in seat 7 and no player of any note should even contemplatye calling with KK in seat 7 unless he had x-ray vision and could see his opponents cards.

This question demonstrates why position is so important. When you see this kind of action/betting before it is your turn to act you have no business being in the pot with anything less than Aces.

Had the betting been raise to 150 followed by reraise to 500 then its a whole new ball game but all in bets for 10k called by another player for 10k on the first hand is a totally unique and specific case that says AA is already out there.

This is the problem with hypothetcal non real scenarios and I repeat that in real life you wouldn't have a decision to make in seat 7. You simply call with AA and fold everything else.

id probably fold 2 5 off suite but not suited . seriousley how can annyone think of folding A A no matter what stage it is in the game definitley not before the flop ,whos to say seat 5 is not holdin AA ITS still a split pot

Harry, a beautifully & logical explanation, all angles nicely covered, thread now dead, so now YOU had better set us a hand quiz please! (Hehe...)..

By the way, maybe I did not word my post very well. But I WOULD call in a 3 or even 4 way pot with AA, but not, at this stage, with ANY other hand. I intended to say I did not want to gamble three way in this instance UNLESS I had AA.

Now about that hand quiz.......

anyone know the odds of being dealt AA ?

No doubt others have strong views about why they should call with lesser hands but poker is complex and I like to try and make the decisions black and white.

As for your answer it was my reply that was worded incorrectly as you correctly (imo) throw everything away except for aces in this spot and I inexcusibly seemed to imply you would call with lesser hands but this was not my intention.

Regardless of what the other two players have it cannot possibly be a mistake to throw away KK in seat 7 with this betting action.

Any inkling as to what those "most pros got it right" decided to do? and more importantly their reasons for soing so.

If they argue that with their superior skills they can make up for giving up this kind of edge if they throw away aces then I would laugh at them becasue there's no way they can expect to get into better spots especially when you consider that if they get all in with AA against a single opponent there is still an 18% chance they lose.

As for a quiz I'll set one in another thread but here will be no definitve answer to it and it will take you thorugh an entire hand from pre flop to river and I'll call the thread Complex Hand Problem.

I take that as a NO then!

220 to 1.....ish

well my chips go in with AA and thats the only hand i would get in there with... I would dwell on it for a min or two, because i would'nt want to be the first one out.

If the odds of getting AA is 220-1 with 7000 runners thats 32 people being delt AA in the first hand,since it loses 18% of the time 5 people should be taking the long walk with you if your AA is busted....

I'm calling anyway

NO the answer is YES.

Probability of getting Aces........

First and second cards have to be an ace so for a 52 card standard deck.

First card 48 non aces to 4 aces = 12/1 0r in decimal form 13.0

Second card 48 non aces to 3 aces (one ace and card already gone) = 16/1 or 17.0

Probability of getting dealt a pair of Aces = 17 x 13 = 221 or 220/1

BUT ..........................If you're a poker player it seems more like 58,987,345,678/1  that you get them and even longer that they hold up;-)