blonde poker forum

on pacific and cant paste HH.

gr1msby: $460.70
alexos14: $115.60
tsigmond: $439.50    (Button)
klumpen1: $663.80    (SB) $2
fixgear: $180.40        (BB) $4
Cego68: $31.60


cego68 raises $16
gr1msby calls $16  Ac Kc
alexos14 folds
tsignmond folds
klumpen1 calls
fixgear folds

flop  Ahrt Tc 5s

cego68 all in $15.60
gr1msby calls $15.60
klumpen1 calls $15.60

turn  Aspades

klumpen1 bets $32
gr1msby raises to $98
klumpen1 raises to $205 (total)

i'm new to the table, only reads are klumpen1 is aggressive and multi tabling. is this a weak fold or should i just be going with it? my gut says im beat.

Your hand is hugely under-repped, so I don't think you have any choice but to call. 

Why didn't you just get hu with the shortstack pre?  Giving these guys the opportunity to treble up is a crime punishable by a horrible death thought up by a deviant.

Deffo need a bit of feel in this one. If ur gut says ur beat just give it up Dan. FWIW i never pass this hand and get shown 1010 a tonne.

Like doubleup mentions why aren't we isolating the shortstack preflop? Make it $50 preflop imo.

Im getting it on the turn his range is made up of enough ax hands to outweigh the boats in his range. I mean your hand looks like a weaker ace than it is.

with people squeezing so much these days im quite happy to flat call here v the shortstack. although it has given me a tougher decision now.

Yeah but this is really bad spot for squeezing cos of the shortstack, no?

go with it and expect to see 55 or AJ

wouldnt aq aj flat call my rr on turn?

Jam

how longs a piece of string? You cant quantify or rationalise poker players, you get all sorts. Would like to see the distributional probability of AX (where x>9), 1010, 55 if anyone could be arsed to work it out. These spots come up fairly often and id like to know more.

yep..my chips are in.

mine to

i always forget to use this!!

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 880  games     0.016 secs    55,000  games/sec

Board:  Ahrt Tc 5s Aspades
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    48.182%     37.61%    10.57%               331           93.00   { AcKc }
Hand 1:    51.818%     41.25%    10.57%               363           93.00   { TT, 55, ATs+, ATo+ }


---

   1,056  games     0.172 secs     6,139  games/sec

Board:  Ahrt Tc 5s  Aspades
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    54.545%     44.60%    09.94%               471          105.00   { AcKc }
Hand 1:    45.455%     35.51%    09.94%               375          105.00   { TT, 55, A9s+, A9o+ }


---

It's actually almost a call if his range is:   TT,55,AKs,ATs,AKo,ATo

if he's an aggressive multitabler then surely it's a call? are multitablers likely to get tricky with a flat call on the turn and scare you off from calling on the river? if he's got other tables to worry about won't he just jam anything like AQ/AJ/A9?
there's also a chance he may think you re-raised the turn due to not giving him credit for the ace due to the lack of a raise on the flop from him?

i feel i have to call not only due to the money in the middle / chances i'm winning but for notes on the player. if he's a multitabler at 2/4 theres gotta be some extra value in calling here to see how he's played what, as his money's gonna be on the table to be won in the future for sure.

AND if he's multitabling theres a possibility he's tilting from beats on other tables ect?

I think you probably have to go with it, but I don't think you really have the equity that those poker stove calculations suggest. The probability of him having AJ-AK here surely has to be discounted - I think the 3-bet means you have to weight his range towards AT/TT/55. As does the fact that he might well have reraised preflop with AK. And the case ace also makes up a decent chunk of the shortstack's range.

If you discount the chance of him having AJ/AQ by 50%, and include only one combo of AK in his range, then I think you still get about 35% equity vs a range of AT+/55/TT, which is approximately what you need to break even.

If you take this view though then I'm not sure there's any point jamming the turn - you might be giving the weaker parts of his range reason to fold, even getting 3 to 1. AJ's going to struggle to find anything it can beat if you 4-bet it here. I think I prefer to call turn and then call or value bet river.

good post.