blonde poker forum

Ive always been one to make calls based on the math no matter what the situation...

However I wondered if sometimes you can pass even when the odds dictate u should call.

The guy to my right has changed gears massively and beggining to raise most unraised pots...im one of the chip leaders and have ignored it for a couple of orbits..the table is reasonably passive and no one has either realised what he is up to or they just wont play without a top ten hand.

The action is folded to matey in the cutoff and he raises once again...blinds300-600..he makes it 2200......i decide enough is enough ..knowing he has a bag of bones and repop him to 6k with A 9...at this point my cards are irrelevant and i only have the blinds to get through on a passive table and i know they are going to need a monster to get involved here.....

However the BB  mr gibralter has a big dwell and pushes all in...matey raiser folds like a girl as I knew he would and im left facing calling 7200 into a pot of 22400....

if i call i leave myself with 8k ...if i dont im left with over 15k which is still above average...

I know im a massive dog but i dont give him AA or KK because he took so long to make the push....its either AK or a biggish pair..i put  him on jacks...

Now I know im 3-1 dog and I have the perfect odds to call.....but do I have to seeing as I would still have an above average stack ??????

I call, ur actually getting slightly better than 3-1 for a start, its minimal but its an edge. Also, this is you opportunity to get a huge stack and dominate from then on, your image will be superb and your confidence will go through the roof. As a final argument, you still have nearly 10BB if you fail, enough to work with. You know KK is like JJ here right?

Yeah, I wondered about the exact 'I put him on Jacks' comment as well. You know you're behind, but unless he has AA it doesn't really matter what you're behind to, as you still have three outs. You have ruled out AA so you don't need to narrow his range any further.

It's always annoying when pot odds dictate you have to call when you know you're behind, but this instance is one of them.

yes you should call, unless you feel you have a massive massive advantage over field... The odds say call, not to mention the benefits that a big stack provides...

i don't always make these calls especially if it's going to plunge me into below average chips. If the table is good and i'm able to accumulate i think these are ditchable hands. Lets face it at lower stakes only 2/3 players will recognise you made a maths mistake in folding and maybe only 1 will be able to adjust his strategy and have the balls to try and exploit your 'weakness'.

These are auto for high volume players and thats obviously correct for them but for players who don't play big volume and don't get to run deep so often then preserving a chip stack you can work with might be more preferable.

Shoot me down at will......

I agree with you for exactly the same reasons you've stated, so no gun here. 

Calling here is plus EV in terms of chips because so long as he doesn't have AA you will have three outs either way. AA is of course part of his range, but given the amount of money in the pot - even if you knew this is only ever QQ+ and AKo+ you should call because you will suck out often enough to show a profit from the call in the longrun.

Anytime you pass up on a plus cEV spot in the early of mid stages of a tournament you cost yourself money. Because plus cEV = $EV unless you are in a very specific payjump bubble situation where the value of maintaining your stack may have more value. That doesn't seem to be the case here, so if you fold this hand you are doing something which just cost you $EV.

Doing things like that on a consistent basis is the easiest way to becoming the value in tournaments and be a long - term losing proposition in tournament poker.

So, by all means fold here if you like donating. It increases my edge.

in this instance exactly i would call but just trying to give some reasons as to why i might fold in similar spots.

This^

This argument has been done to death many times in many places. Simply put, you're probably nowhere near good enough to ever pass up on a plus cEV spot.

in the biggest tournament i ever won there were 13 players left and i was 2nd in chips with a great table position and winning pots constantly, i had a very similar situation to this which would have pushed me down into the bottom 3 and removed all re steal and fold equity. the odds were right to call and it took me the entire time clock to decide to fold and drop to 5th and try to continue where i left off, i made the chips back within a round and went onto win. 2 players adjusted to me immediately and started to come over the top of my raises, fortunately i found a couple of hands and it worked out for me.

in my mind it was, if i call and win i have an excellent chance to finish top 3, if i call and lose i have very little chance, if i fold i still have a very good shot at top 3.

technically wrong? yes. do i think it was a good decision? yes i do.

I was at this table

I thought the BB pushed quickly!

I won't spoil the story from there....

 ;whistle;

but they also wouldn't have been re stealing with junk if they hadn't seen me turn down the earlier call. swings and roundabouts.

I made the call after a monster dwell...i suppose i knew all along i was calling but knowing i was in such bad shape prevented the instant trigger pull...but then i dont think it does any harm to stop and think...matey had QQ and it held up.....i built up from there a bit but lost 2 races and that was that...

I suppose i always knew the answer to this question as i have no qualms usually about making the call....anyone who calls Lallit with Q 7 o/s for odds cant be gun shy but its nice to have it reaffirmed....

thanks guys...

I thought he had a good dwell b4 pushing Richard...??  LOL

FYP

thanks m8 !