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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: Harry Demetriou on November 04, 2005, 12:23:03 PM



Title: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: Harry Demetriou on November 04, 2005, 12:23:03 PM
You have 8h 4h in the small blind

Flop is:  6h 9h Ks

6 players in pot and everyone has between 120 and 150k except for the Button who has 50k

No pre flop raise blinds are 1000/2000 and ante 300 in ten handed game

You checked the big blind checked as did the early position and mid position limpers along with the cut off seat pre flop limper.

There was 15000 in the pot and the button bet 10000 into it making the pot 25000 in size and its back to you. You ahve absolutely no oinformation whatsoever on this player and only know that he now has 40000 left after betting the 10000.

What are you going to do now?


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: Nem on November 04, 2005, 12:42:00 PM
If you think you can get all the other players to pass, you could go all in. However, if you think that isn't possible, I would have to fold this hand. The button isn't the player to worry about.


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: Norwich Fan on November 04, 2005, 12:50:01 PM
Surely its a bit risky to go all in here, with effectively an 8 high, putting your tourney on the line basically with a complete bluff, if you do get called, about 7 out of 10 times u are on your way out.
All in here, with still the limpers to act, is incredibly loose imo.
Personally, i think i would just fold this here.


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: TightEnd on November 04, 2005, 12:52:22 PM
Fold


10k Required to call into a 25k pot

you are going to need multiple calls from your opponents for your hand to have the right implied odds if you hit miracle cards

10k from the button is a weak or strong bet everyone?


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: jezza777 on November 04, 2005, 12:56:24 PM
The bet by the button seems very strong here given his stack size . Then there are the rest of the players to worry about . I think calling is out of the question as it offers the rest 3.5-1 on the call . so I fold . I would push here with less players to act (maybee).


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: rivered on November 04, 2005, 12:57:52 PM
i'd think he's got one hand - he's on the nut flush draw, making a semi bluff bet to define his hand better and tempt other flush / str8 drawers in to the pot.  The bet is too small for him to have trips / and he prob doesn't have pair/two pair/trips as he's giving everyone else odds.  Either that or he's just a weak player and is trying to steal / probe bet with something like AQ/AJ.

Anyway, I fold now-  i'm the SB and i saw the flop for cheap, but everything is far too suspicious for my liking - lots of people round to reraise me, and I've put the bettor on a flush draw - if he's not on one, then someone else is i reckon due to so many checkers hoping for the free card.  i'll cut my very low losses and wait for a better hand....


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: Bongo on November 04, 2005, 01:04:00 PM
I say fold, odds of 2.5 to 1 aren't good enough to draw to the flush, especially when a better flush draw could be out there. So far you've only lost 1k speculating with a very marginal hand, you've not hit big there's no need to lose any more.


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: Karabiner on November 04, 2005, 01:17:08 PM
Easy fold for me here too.


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: ariston on November 04, 2005, 01:22:43 PM
If you are going to call from the small blind with this hand what are you hoping to catch? You have flopped a flush draw (admittedly a weak one)- are you willing to give up on the 25k in the pot just like that? I would like an information reraise here making it 20k to go. This would give any of the other players chances to dump marginal holdings as you are the small blind and could hold anything.
Allin is not an option as the one of the main hands that can call you may have you drawing very thin (eg bigger flush draw).
I would not be able to say exactly what I would do without plenty of other information (who are the others limpers/checkers? How near to the bubble are we? what do you percieve others think of you? ), hell I may I have even led at this pot on a semibluff/stopngo. As far as the facts given I think allin is not an option and folding (for me anyway) is not an option, so somewhere between the 2 lol. We could go down the route of what ifs (what if my information raise gets reraised by the button, what if a streaker runs out from behind the bar and nicks your hole cards etc) but I was asked what I would do next- information raise.  


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: rivered on November 04, 2005, 02:12:32 PM
what would you put on the button on with a bet of that size?  tough without much info i know but what you reckon?  would you make a probe bet holding nothing with five limpers before you?  if not what could he have?


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: TightEnd on November 04, 2005, 02:14:47 PM
top pair with a good kicker...KQ?...But he'd go all in and drive the flush draw away wouldn't he?

It looks like it want's action though.....two pair?


confused!


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: ifm on November 04, 2005, 02:34:23 PM
This is what i was trying to avoid by betting in seat 7, the button is highly likely to bet here with pretty much anything (or nothing) as it's been checked around to him. There is 15k up for grabs and he would probably think it's worth a punt at.
So even though i don't believe the button has anything there are far too many in this pot to be wary of, i can call his bet and have to fold to a reraise.
I'm so badly out of position it's a must fold for me, it isn't worth it.
If i raise i'd have to put at least 20k into this pot without knowing where i am as regards the others, and as i say i can't put any more in on such a weak draw if reraised.
Also of course if i flat call and miss the turn i am in an even worse spot.
Definite fold and watch the heart come on the turn :D


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: The Dundonian on November 04, 2005, 02:36:09 PM
would the correct bet not be to flat call ,2.5-1 for a 2-1 shot for the flush ? Any other callers and the odds are even better in your favour.

You would have to call the bet!


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: rivered on November 04, 2005, 02:46:39 PM
nah, there's a big fat smelly rat in this one - four people left to act after you've flat called... reraise is ringing too many alarm bells for me.... you've got 84s and you saw a cheap flop - be grateful, cut your very small losses and wait for a better situation.  you're stacked and are not under pressure from blinds...


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: Bongo on November 04, 2005, 02:49:57 PM
would the correct bet not be to flat call ,2.5-1 for a 2-1 shot for the flush ? Any other callers and the odds are even better in your favour.

You would have to call the bet!

It's not a 2-1 shot though, that would only be if you got to see the turn an river without facing further bets.

In this case you're not even reasonably certain that you can see the turn for just the 10k.


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: Karabiner on November 04, 2005, 03:02:43 PM
If you are going to call from the small blind with this hand what are you hoping to catch? You have flopped a flush draw (admittedly a weak one)- are you willing to give up on the 25k in the pot just like that? I would like an information reraise here making it 20k to go. This would give any of the other players chances to dump marginal holdings as you are the small blind and could hold anything.
Allin is not an option as the one of the main hands that can call you may have you drawing very thin (eg bigger flush draw).
I would not be able to say exactly what I would do without plenty of other information (who are the others limpers/checkers? How near to the bubble are we? what do you percieve others think of you? ), hell I may I have even led at this pot on a semibluff/stopngo. As far as the facts given I think allin is not an option and folding (for me anyway) is not an option, so somewhere between the 2 lol. We could go down the route of what ifs (what if my information raise gets reraised by the button, what if a streaker runs out from behind the bar and nicks your hole cards etc) but I was asked what I would do next- information raise. 

That is why I advocated a lead-out bet of 5k.


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: Harry Demetriou on November 04, 2005, 03:14:21 PM
I tell you some of the things I'm thinking of now in the small blind.

What's the button got?

Is this a steal from the button as he's last to act?

Why has he put 20% of his stack into the pot?

Why did I put that 1000 in from the small blind pre flop with this piece of shit in the first place?

How did I get myself in this spot? I should know better than to play bad cards.

Why didn't I just bet out on the flop?

If I call will I get to see the turn or will I be able to call any turn bet?

Is someone going to reraise behind me if I call?

Decisions! Decisions! Decisions!

I've got a headache......................................

Who said poker was a simple game :-(


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: rivered on November 04, 2005, 03:16:46 PM
i think the most important question for the SB is.... would you go all in if you hit the flush against another big stack?... you're far from the highest flush, and everyone has been limping...


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: The Dundonian on November 04, 2005, 03:58:19 PM
whats the odds on two people at the table having 2 hearts in the hole 80+/1?


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: matt674 on November 04, 2005, 04:24:28 PM
Reraise another 40k. You have check-raised which is usually an indication of strength and made the amount the exact amount that the button is sat with indicating that you know you have him beat and that you want to get heads up with him. Hopefully this show of strength will force everyone else who has checked to pass allowing you to be heads up with the button.

If his hand isnt that strong then chances are he will pass as he has only invested 12k of his 50k and still has enough chips to play with if he folds. If he has flopped a big hand such as a set or maybe a higher flush draw then at least you still have outs........


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: SupaMonkey on November 04, 2005, 04:59:50 PM
Reraise another 40k. You have check-raised which is usually an indication of strength and made the amount the exact amount that the button is sat with indicating that you know you have him beat and that you want to get heads up with him. Hopefully this show of strength will force everyone else who has checked to pass allowing you to be heads up with the button.

If his hand isnt that strong then chances are he will pass as he has only invested 12k of his 50k and still has enough chips to play with if he folds. If he has flopped a big hand such as a set or maybe a higher flush draw then at least you still have outs........

What do you do if you get re-raised by someone who had planned to check-raise with a geniune hand?


I think the reverse implied odds here mean that your position is bashing you around the head with a sledgehammer.

If i reraise 10k (say) the button may take me all in if it is folded around to him even if he has a draw. He may not have the greatest draw but he may decide that this would be a good time for him to shove his stack in and hope. If he has a hand he is not going to lay it down now that there is 45k in the pot and he has 40k. Also, if i do not reraise his stack (or almost his stack) then he will be given the hope that he could reraise me and i may fold.

If i do reraise and make it 50k to go and i get called i am in a world crap because i won't know where i stand and i will be forced to bet out on the following card no matter what.

Basically for me, this seems like one of those hands you chase and end up losing your entire stack to and then go home cursing yourself for playing poorly.

So far the hand has cost you 2k and you were forced to put 1k of that in anyway. I would throw it away.


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: ACE2M on November 04, 2005, 06:00:51 PM
I'd dump it, i would have led out on the flop. I'd now be cursing myself for not leading out and then cheering right up when one of the others limpers check raises all in. I've lost so many promising positions by getting it wrong in this kind of situation i just tend to dump them now. For me the four more players to act is the crucial point here.


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: wsopin07 on November 04, 2005, 06:53:28 PM
i'd think he's got one hand - he's on the nut flush draw, making a semi bluff bet to define his hand better and tempt other flush / str8 drawers in to the pot.  The bet is too small for him to have trips / and he prob doesn't have pair/two pair/trips as he's giving everyone else odds.  Either that or he's just a weak player and is trying to steal / probe bet with something like AQ/AJ.

Anyway, I fold now-  i'm the SB and i saw the flop for cheap, but everything is far too suspicious for my liking - lots of people round to reraise me, and I've put the bettor on a flush draw - if he's not on one, then someone else is i reckon due to so many checkers hoping for the free card.  i'll cut my very low losses and wait for a better hand....

why does this make him a weak player? He may be a strong player doing the right thing to get you to pass? If you play differently from the way others think you should play you have an advantage. I gave Barney Boatman 10 to 1 odds during the William Hill Grand Prix if he could tell me what 2 cards I help in my hand! I will offer that to anyone in a major comp at any time, I dont think players ever know what i hold! Is this good or bad ?


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: wsopin07 on November 04, 2005, 06:56:54 PM
Reraise another 40k. You have check-raised which is usually an indication of strength and made the amount the exact amount that the button is sat with indicating that you know you have him beat and that you want to get heads up with him. Hopefully this show of strength will force everyone else who has checked to pass allowing you to be heads up with the button.

If his hand isnt that strong then chances are he will pass as he has only invested 12k of his 50k and still has enough chips to play with if he folds. If he has flopped a big hand such as a set or maybe a higher flush draw then at least you still have outs........

This would be my move, I like this alot!


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: Karabiner on November 04, 2005, 07:27:51 PM
So I guess that means that you would have checked on the flop too then Brian.


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: matt674 on November 04, 2005, 07:29:35 PM
This would be my move, I like this alot!

Cool, starting to think like a WSOP bracelet winner - the signs are looking good.

all i got to do now is try and play like one........ :D


Title: Re: Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - BACK TO THE SMALL BLIND
Post by: Harry Demetriou on November 04, 2005, 09:32:53 PM
Of the pros surveyed about this stage of the hand most decided to pass whilst a couple reraised a decent amount figuring that the checking players were showing weakness and that the button had a reasonable percentage chance of holding a hand that would have to fold even though he was in the last postiion to act. They felt that anyone holding anything would have bet due to the nature of the board but alas not all players behave in the same way so you can never be sure.

However all agreed that they were not too happy here as the betting had now been re-opened and that there was a reasonable chance of one of the earlier players check raising. You also still have to worry about acting first on the turn out of position so if you are going to win this hand it is bettere to try and do it now or give up the hand completely. If you reraise and someone calls or re re raises you then you are going to have to get lucky and pray that someone else isn't holding something like two two hearts or even worse the suited king of hearts.

Calling wasn't really considered an option as if you were going to do that then it was felt that as most likely the heart wouldn't come up on the turn you would then be unlikely to see a river card.

But what does the button have?

Overall it was felt that he was likely to be holding something and that his chances of betting purely for stealing purposes even with him being last to act was extremely low but his exact holding was still difficult to ascertain.

So on we must go to the next stage and thread titled - Complex Hand Analysis - The Flop - CUT OFF AGAIN.