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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: deputydawg on May 05, 2008, 10:23:45 AM



Title: Was going busto avoidable?
Post by: deputydawg on May 05, 2008, 10:23:45 AM
£100 f/o, 82 runners, £1k added. 10k starting chips and 40 min levels

Comp is over 2 days and I am not interested in coming back day 2 shortstacked. Big prizes top 3 as usual

33 left I have c25k (average) as does villain who has been on mt table since start. he is a decent lag, willing to make moves, raising usually 2-3 times per round. Recently he raised from EP and got reraised, called all in (pot odds) and showed 3c4c and flopped str8.

Any way I am BB with  Ks Qc and he raises from c/o to 4k (blinds 500/1000)

I elect to flat call as if I reraise, and he pushes I am probably pot committed

flop  Qh 8c 5d

I now believe I am ahead of most of his likely holdings and I check (to trap lol) as he always cont. bets, which he does for c.5500

I reraise all in, he instacalls and shows  Ad  Qd

And that was that

Thoughts welcome please


Title: Re: Was going busto avoidable?
Post by: MANTIS01 on May 05, 2008, 10:39:44 AM
Posted by: deputydawg
Quote
Comp is over 2 days and I am not interested in coming back day 2 shortstacked

Because this is how you feel you call 20% of your stack off with a marginal hand, oop, against a LAG oppo who is certain to keep firing after the flop. If you want to get chips or go home then this is the way to do it. Alternatively, If you want to play well, pushing or folding are your two options.


Title: Re: Was going busto avoidable?
Post by: gatso on May 05, 2008, 11:00:33 AM
imo the hand is irrelevent. if you're worrying about coming back short stacked despite having an average stack then something is wrong, you're going to make wrong decisions with this mindset and so no, going busto probs wasn't avoidable.


Title: Re: Was going busto avoidable?
Post by: deputydawg on May 05, 2008, 11:37:34 AM
Possibly it's a bit of a red herring about not wanting to come back day 2 s/stacked as at this stage of comp not too relevant.

It is more a case of feeling I was well ahead of his raising range with KQ and once I hit a Q high flop, was going bust avoidable. I wouldn't push at this stage with KQ as he is likely to call with a good A or a pair, but after flop i am really only likely behind AA, KK or AQ but ahead of just about everything else he would stil c/b with. Calling the extra 3 k  is only 12-13% of my stack as well


Title: Re: Was going busto avoidable?
Post by: MANTIS01 on May 05, 2008, 12:07:47 PM
Do you see the conflict in saying....
Quote
It is more a case of feeling I was well ahead of his raising range with KQ

...and then this

Quote
I wouldn't push at this stage with KQ as he is likely to call with a good A or a pair

You can't feel you're ahead but not want to raise in case you may be behind.

Hitting the flop with K-Q gets you into this sort of trouble and that's why calling to hit is -EV.


Title: Re: Was going busto avoidable?
Post by: Royal Flush on May 05, 2008, 01:18:56 PM
This is a really easy jam pre, if you misclicked and found yourself on this flop then obv check jam is a good line just ul he had something.


Title: Re: Was going busto avoidable?
Post by: deputydawg on May 05, 2008, 02:41:27 PM
Do you see the conflict in saying....
Quote
It is more a case of feeling I was well ahead of his raising range with KQ

...and then this

Quote
I wouldn't push at this stage with KQ as he is likely to call with a good A or a pair

You can't feel you're ahead but not want to raise in case you may be behind.

Hitting the flop with K-Q gets you into this sort of trouble and that's why calling to hit is -EV.

yes I do and am not disagreeing at all. I just felt that it was worth seeing a flop with 2 t o1 pot odds and still leaving 20 BBs behind. It was unfortunately the flop I wanted to see.

the concensus seems to be i should have pushed p/f so at least I can console myself wit hthe outcome being the same unless the dealer had a RNG

cheers guys