blonde poker forum

How much of a mug bet are these things? My local bookie offers treble SP on the one winner, 10% bonus on 4 winners, 15% bonus on 5, and 20% on 6...and on first glance it seems to me that these make it slightly more appealing then seperate bets because of the bonus, but its a bookie, and it looks generous, so there has to be a pretty big catch.


What is it?

it's a collosal mugs bet. Lucky 15's and yankees and all that non-sense are bookies bets as they are built around people thinking "oooh, if they all come in I'll make a fortune" I don't know any gambler at decent stakes that plays them (other than the occasional small one for a bit of fun or interest on a saturday or big meeting day.

The bookie wants you to put your money into the lucky 15 as it spreads out your money. Rather than have 15£ on one winner you have 1£ on it...yiiipppepee at getting 10% bonus on that.

what i've been doing is having like 6/1 7/1 horses, if one comes in only, you get treble the odds, so about 20/1,and if two come in you lose the 3*odds for the single, but get the double. I know it must be a mug bet, i just couldnt find on the net the math behind it.

Any bet that the bookmakers offer with the word "lucky" in it is a mugs bet!

FACT

I'm always up for a lucky bet (any of my winners have to be)

why not stick 15£ on the one that you actually really fancy?

because I often think to myself "oooh, if they all come in I'll make a fortune"

also I'm waiting on bolt to succesfully do a smash and grab on safeways and give me my share of the profits before I can bet £15 on a horserace.

hang on a minute, who said anything about sharing? i'm sorry if i gave the impression that you were on a % and i'm grateful for all the advice you've given me but potentially we're talking about 7-10 big bottles of cider, I just cant see myself sharing that that amount of alcohol with anyone

you'll just have to stick with your lucky15 for the time being and who knows.....................oooooooooh, if they all come in you might make a fortune :)up

this is whats wrong with the world today, you spend your time helping the youth out and they throw it back in your face.

I hope that one day when you are old and wizened, and a young pup comes to you for advice on the nuances of cider-equity-release, they are as cold hearted as you, then you will learn a valuable lesson.

the tipsters tournament on blonde has been running for nearly 2 seasons - thats 30 people giving 6 selections every week for approx 15 different weekends, most claim to follow horses while some of use stick to tried and trusted "where ever the pin falls" methods.

so how many times out of approx 600 attempts has someone managed 6 out of 6..................... zero

how many times has someone come close to getting 6 out of 6................... zero (i think)

i think the bookies are pretty safe offering the 10,15 & 20% bonuses because yes there is someone who gets lucky with his 5 even money shots on a lucky 31 but there are tens of thousands who are lucky if they even get their money back.

right, but you dont need to have all 6 win to make a profit, that would be a straight accumulator.


With any form of gambling that has an inherent negative expectation, there comes a point that if the overlay is big enough, it becomes a +EV proposition... a perfect example of this is jackpot tables in poker... so basically i was wondering as to the mechanics of this type of bet, how its such a mugs bet, and to understand the math a little more to see where a bookies "break even" point might be... because to break it down... singles aren't a mugs bet, doubles aren't a mugs bet, trebles I guess aren't a mugs bet, and are 4 timers a mugs bet? in terms of EV that is.

and as for this, if the horse is a true even money shot, they are laying evens on each bet, on an even money shot, with a bonus to those that choose red 5 times in a row... seems like a reverse martingale to me, so that cant be it... because if you offered this type of bet with a coin, heads or tails, and layed evens on each with a bonus at the end for those that got lucky, you would definately lose a lot of money, so it has to come with the fact that the more bets they take on these tickets, the more it plays into their 130% or so overrounds i think, i just cant figure out exactly how yet.

most peoples perms are for small money and i think you'll find it's almost uniquely a recreational punters bet so when people are getting treble the odds about their 2/1 winner for 10p it's not that significant, if you factor in how many punters dont bother collecting the silly amounts the bonus they offer isn't anywhere near reducing the -EV of the punter.

bookmakers love taking bets with the word "lucky" in them, it's true that one week they may have to pay out £3400 to 86 year bill who does he's lucky 15 every week but bills still massively down on the bet over his life and the bookmakers have taken how many tens of thousands this week on these bets already.

Theres no edge in this bet if for no other reason than the bookmakers are still laying it, thats all you need to know!

gambling on anything where you have no control whatsoever on the outcome is a mugs bet.

but then life would be boring otherwise

no to the former, yes to the latter.

bolt,

you did raise one interesting point, in that i bet a lot of poeple that punt in the bookies wont go to collect when their payout is £1/£2 etc, that must add-up a fair bit each day.

just one!!! ;grr;

I had to edit my post because it digressed into another mad anti bookmakers rant, which ive been doing a lot lately, and that was where most of the good points were ::)

I think after 6 months an unclaimed bet becomes "dead" and the property of the bookmakers, from what i understand it really does add up.

another thing i guess you gotta take into account is that if I scored £50k from one of these punts, my local bookie prolly wouldn't be able to pay! Poor guy has 10 pence bic pens with cellotape round them chained to the walls. I had a £5'er on a horse at 25/1 3 or 4 months ago and when i went in to collect he looked like id just slapped his mother in the jaw and stamped on the foot of his newborn child.

my bin is testament to about £2.60 that the bookie wont ever pay out, so I can well believe they do okay on bets that people cant be bothered to collect.

lol it's true, you wouldn't want to put a big acca on with an independent only to be told they can pay you £5 per week for the next 5674 years.

I think it was on here or in a magazine i read about marty wilson in the 80s perming up all the bottom weights at prices at a particular track when the going turned soft and he had it right off and the guy that owned the small betting shop met him afterwards gave him the keys to the shop and said :"I work for you now", if i remember rightly i think he said he went on to lose it in a card game, standard.

Jennings popped up in SE London a couple of years ago and someone i know had £500 on a dog that in one of the shops that they backed into quite short and and he took 3/1 and after it won they banned him, it was the first bet he had in the gaff!

They dont have to give reasons but i imagine your a new firm starting out in an area you want as steady a clientele as possible, mug punters, degenerate gamblers etc so that you can calculate your profit per hour without taking unnecessary risks with your liquidity, he was NOT happy though!

the big three and a few others take those bets all day, goes to show what the criteria is of some of these smaller firms!

1  Bookies never lose money, end of.
2  They must however have the odd loss leader but that is most likely a mistake with the odds or a mistake with the payout.
3 Bolt is in his late 30's

i really like the bookie vs punter battle, it seems like its one of the old romances left in society. I went to Beverly last year to watch a horse I was gonna invest in (choristar, it won there and died in the next race, obv) and was pretty tanked, saw this horse at 14/1 in the lucky last, went to place the £100, and 5 min later the price had fallen from 14/1 to 10/1 with this bookie, and 11/1 all round. Is liquidity really that weak at the smaller tracks these days?

also i was wearing my full tilt tank-top in the members enclosure, how pathetic is that on a scale of 1--10!


as for bolt, he speaks like a seasoned gambler, musta been gambling since he was 7 years old. Respect is given for that!

That depends on how many times you said: "ship it holla"!! whilst you were there ::)

with regards to the term :"the lucky last", the guy that came up with that deserves a knighthood for services to the bookmaking industry!

No other phrase could better suggest to a punter that it's NOT alright to go home losing just a bit, your life ends tonight, it's all or nothing, now or never, lump on the lucky last!!!

theres never a last race!!! is it not possible for us to keep our money in our pockets for just a few hours while we go home, watch eastenders have some dinner and have a kip, the money will still be there tomorrow(unless your missus has a little dip up) and we can come back refreshed knowing that we didnt make a forced selection in a 22 runner handicap because it was the last race of the day!

I was going to say when is the lucky last ever lucky but i remember going into the betting shop one newyears eve and i'm chatting to this guy i sort of know and he tells me he's stuck £300 and had his last £50 on a 4/1 horse in a NH flat race in the "lucky last ", he didnt have any money left to go out with that night, they went a couple of furlongs and he said to me "when are they gonna jump the first"? i told him it was a NH flat race to which he replied "I dont even know what i'm betting on any more" i felt a bit sorry for him but at the same time was bitting my lip a bit to stop myself from laughing, anyway the horse went on to win but i do feel it may have served him better in the long term if it hadnt and he'd had to sit indoors new years eve on his own and think about what he'd done. ::)

yeah id never say that phrase, its reserved for morons or $3 sng grinders.

When i was in the bookies today there was this race from baden baden, and the jolly got turned over, and some guy slammed his fist into the door and then walked out, and it struck me that people gamble on anything to get a score, they dont care about their edge, and as he was walking away it struck me how scummy the entire gambling industry is.... I lost a really big sum of money on ladbrokes last year and around christmas I got a call from a manager at ladbrokes to wish me a merry christmas and to tell me i was a great client of theirs, and i was drunk and the guy had an irish accent so he was winning me over, and then he had to ask me what i fancied in the King george, and it struck me that they really dont give a crap about anyone other then their bottom line. It made me feel really bad

will it stop me gambling? nope
will it stop me drinking? nope
will I care about it in the morning? doubt it

but at the time, it felt so sleezy.

I was 10, seagram in the 1991 national, ship!!

The funny thing was my uncle had the second for what i think was coming to about 2k, big money in them days and i rememebr calling home seagram for my £5 in front of the tv as our 2 went clear and my uncle saying "dont call seagram home, i'll give you £50 it loses", my dad and uncles seemed a bit dejected after the race but i rememeber going into the kitchen and jumping around celebrating, lol.

haha, my first ever gamble was when my parents owned a pub, and they did a sweepstake for the national, i think i was 17 or 18 at the time, I got earth summit, and i was golfing when the race went off, went back to the pub, and got handed over £30. Looking back, it was prolly the worst thing that could ever have happened to me, but at the time it was fun. lol

great point and a great story. There will be loads of punters that do the same.

Lucky 15's are deffo high margin for bookies, if you have one loser you have lost over 50% of the bets involved in one go.

bobby, as a learned afficiando of the betting industry, can you give an insight as to how bad the EV is on bets like this? i still cant correlate the bonuses with the bets for some reason. Right now I'll blame it on the stella.

hi mate,

Im not sure of the EV from a maths point but from a punter point of view you are taking a set of high margin bets and combining them in a way that makes them even more high margin for the firms. Not a good spot to be in.

The double odds bonus is a pretty clever thing really, you need a 7/1 winner to get your original stake back on a lucky 15  which wont happen on a consistent basis, if you do play Luckys you have to bet with a firm that give you treble odds for one winner, at that rate you will lose a little slower.

Talking of bad value bets, does anyone remember the Union jack bet where you picked nines selections for eight different trebles and an accca but you could get 6 winners and still get no returns?

high margins are crap for punters with local bookies, so thats one negative! lol

im a losing punter either way, so its all the same to me, i jst found this intersting.

LOL @ Union Jack bets, when I managed a coral shop, I promoted those fkers and the football coupons more than any other bets .... :D

Time to give up gambling when the bookie has your number to chase your bets:). 
e
Also i can't stand the old boys who back favourites every race then moan like feck when they lose as if it was a gimme, jockey is a tit etc etc!!  This same guy in the bookies when im in there moans  every race when fav's get beat , needs a slap the old bastard. you know who im talking about bandit.

Or even worse (and I've only seen this in Glasgow on a regular basis) people cheering home a horse in a race they don't actually have a bet in..pillocks the whole lot of 'em.

you're only jealous because you don't know what its like to cheer home a winner.................... ;whistle;

lol..true.

haha yeah, although I must admit that when I back a spencer jolly, and he gets that horse anchored at the back of the field and loses by a length, I often mutter a few choice words!

The most irritating one i find(and i dont know if this is just the same geezer following me around every shop or not but i hear it so often) is:"i had a 20p s/fc in that last race a portman park and it came in the other way, look at the prices, 33/1 and 20s, how unlucky am i"? whilst he runs around showing everyone the bet!

The next time i overhear someone say that i'm gonna say "could you not have just reversed it for 10p then? look at the prices!!!! and if you were so disposed to getting it for 20p could you not have just gone nuts and added another 20p to the bet"!!! ::)

that reminds me of a genius comment i overheard someone saying yesterday....

apparently, when there are 2 horses at 12/1 or 14/1 in one of these rigged electrical fake races, one of those horses "always" wins. Of course, this guy waits til the 12/1 horse wins before mentioning it. Dont tell too many people this system though, otherwise the bookies will cotton on.

Couldn't you have pm'd me that, you've made it public knowledge now!!! ::)

talking of genius comments watching the chester meeting on channel 4 the other week the last televised race had a horse with a saddle problem, they were rushing around to rectify it and it turned out for whatever reason they couldn't put the sheet with his number on it back on him after they fixed it, Alice plunket who was watching the horse being re-saddled  said: "for those of you that have backed him and are worried about not being able to see him in the race i can tell you that he's number 1"!! 

 ;applause;

they mug bets but good fun. the reason they are mug bets are if you have a lucky 15 and one horse loses it takes down 5 bets instantly and so on.

doesn't it take down 8 bets?

Left with 3 singles, 3 doubles and 1 treble?