blonde poker forum

What odds would you suggest is fair on the following bet:

Person A is a very heavy smoker. Person B wants to bet that Person A cant go a month without having a solitary cigarette.

My initial reaction was something around 20/1.. but thinking about it, that seems quite low

thoughts?

30-1... first few days might be easy.. last 21 will be solid..

If person A drinks go for 50's

jeees tough one, i suppose it depends on the amount, if someone laid me 20/1 on not having a cig for a month and let me have 200 quid on, i wouldnt smoke one cos the money would make me do it ... if i could only have a fiver or tenner on, i would probs cave in and pay up.


so its a real tough one to put a price on imo, i can see why you are struggling.

does Person A have a stressful life/job?  any other vices?

yeah i was thinking about the amount, if person A only wanted to bet £5, then you could offer 100/1 and be confident they would crumble because the addict in them would rather lose out on £500 then go a month without a smoke. I guess to improve the question, we can say what odds would you lay if someone wanted to bet:

£10
£50
£100
£500
£1000
£5000

BfsKev, person A drinks, and he drinks almost every night!! maybe 100/1 !!

jizzem, you really think the first few days might be easy? I'd have thought they would easily be the hardest.

tightend, Person A has a very easy life... no real worries. He does a fair bit of gambling, but only for moderate sums of money

In this case, I think you could offer an extremely high price and have peace of mind your money's secure :)

 ;iagree;

If they drink whatever price you like

Only from personal experience yes, I have stopped twice now, and started again twice, first week was piss easy, after that struggle struggle struggle..

25/1...

i would say its ess than even money

someone offer me a bet not to smoke and i will accept it

Your price should include a factor for how easy to monitor them cracking or not is.