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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: dino1980 on May 26, 2008, 06:22:49 PM



Title: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: dino1980 on May 26, 2008, 06:22:49 PM
Hand that just came up in a satellite, payout structure is 17/72 (nearly 1/4) of field win a seat. This is the fourth hand of the satellite, spots like this come up quite often in these and i'm still not sure how best to handle them. I'm fairly sure passing is correct in this instance as the payouts are closer to a stt than an mtt, but in a satellite where one in 7/8/9/10 get a seat is but is that too nitty.

Full Tilt Poker Game #6572106721: Satellite to $40K Guarantee (49457005), Table 7 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 13:15:13 ET - 2008/05/26
Seat 1: pechka111 (1,860)
Seat 2: Morp (1,455)
Seat 3: fRonTILT (1,455)
Seat 4: Doh-Nutzz (1,470)
Seat 5: dino1980 (1,500)
Seat 6: ult1mo (1,470)
Seat 7: grafgreif (915)
Seat 8: Krazy-Nuts (975)
Seat 9: BuckyAW (2,400)
Doh-Nutzz posts the small blind of 15
dino1980 posts the big blind of 30
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dino1980 [As Qs]
ult1mo calls 30
grafgreif calls 30
Krazy-Nuts calls 30
BuckyAW folds
pechka111 folds
Morp has 15 seconds left to act
Morp raises to 150
fRonTILT folds
Doh-Nutzz calls 135
Dino1980:??

Cold calling 10% OOP multi-way seems spewy and there's also the chance that one of the two short stack limpers shoves. Re-raising all-in seems horrible too as i'm almost certain i only get called by JJ+,A-K. Damn I hate these spots.


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: mondatoo on May 26, 2008, 06:42:12 PM
I've made a few comments recently about my thoughts on AQ (i.e a fukn hate the hand).There are only 4 hands that your losing to so a fold at this point would seem a weak play imho.

Say you where to call and the limpers all fold and you see a flop of AJ4 what would your play be personally i would probably lead out say 2/3 of the pot i would probably be happy to see him fold as im happy to take the pot down.If he flats it im now re-assing where i am in the hand.Im now also losing to aj jj and 44(not a hand id put him on but pos seen as i dont know the player) has me crushed and a4(obviously very unlikerly he has this) also has me beat.If he puts a raise in a would no longer be happy at all with my hand and unless something about his raise seemed fishy to me (the size of his raise i mean by this) i would probably fold as i dont see what im really beating here i guess he could have weaker ace but would he raise with it.I post this with interest in someone else possibly saying where i'm possibly going wrong with this hand.


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: TightEnd on May 26, 2008, 06:50:38 PM
There are only 4 hands that your losing to so a fold at this point would seem a weak play imho.



pardon? I make it 14 hands

OOP in a satellite its a fold I think


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: totalise on May 26, 2008, 06:59:24 PM
fold


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: mondatoo on May 26, 2008, 07:27:30 PM
There are only 4 hands that your losing to so a fold at this point would seem a weak play imho.



pardon? I make it 14 hands

OOP in a satellite its a fold I think



50/50 against any underpair but yes your right at that point you are losing, my point was there's only 4 hands that would have you in trouble.It seems a tight play to me to be folding pre if it was close to the point where you'd be winning the seat then i'd be folding but at such an early stage this seems to nitty to me.


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: AlexMartin on May 27, 2008, 12:44:24 AM
hate flat calling this shallow, no initiative, no information, meh. prolly a jam is best.


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: mondatoo on May 27, 2008, 12:47:48 AM
hate flat calling this shallow, no initiative, no information, meh. prolly a jam is best.

Fair point but id be more leaning towards a fold then jamming ur guna win 200 chips to any worse hand as theyd fold or be losing ur stack most likely dominated if called.


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: TightEnd on May 27, 2008, 12:54:39 AM
hate flat calling this shallow, no initiative, no information, meh. prolly a jam is best.


you can't jam this early with nothing invested! You'll only get called if you are dominated or if lucky racing JJ or something, and the risk reward to win so few chips is skewed. Its a sat where 1/4 of the field ship a seat, its about avoiding races at best this early and only taking them when really necessary or the seat is locked up

Got to fold.


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: AlexMartin on May 27, 2008, 01:53:21 AM
what the hell? Its nowhere near the payout bubble, so we are still very much in chip accumulation mode.

Raiser has raised from late position and we pick up not 200 chips, but 400 chips, which is augmenting our stack by 30% when it works. With it being a satellite our fold equity is amplified as he can only call with a tiiiiny bit of his range. I agree fold is probably default optimal play, but a jam is nowhere near bad.


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: Longy on May 27, 2008, 03:46:53 AM
Fold mega flat payout structure mean that chips preservaiton is far more key than accumulation. You could easily show a profit in this type of sat by waiting to play push/fold poker but of course it is better to sit there and play nittty to get a good safeish double up.


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: boldie on May 27, 2008, 10:32:05 AM
a very weak fold for me thanks..I'll safe my chips


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: mondatoo on May 27, 2008, 11:14:10 AM
LOL MUST READ ORIGINAL POST PROPLY DIDNT SEE THAT THE SB HAD ALSO CALLED THE RAISE MAKING A FLAT CALL DEFINITLY NOT SOMETHING A WOULD BE LOOKING TO DO NOW.I THINK NEITHER PLAY IS THE WRONG 1 HERE AS GOING OVER THE TOP YOU COULD GET AK TO FOLD SO ONLY 3 HANDS CRUSHING YOU AND ALTHOUGH A DONT LIKE RACING AT THIS POINT IN A SAT OPP MAY ALSO PASS 8s OR 9s HERE.ID PROBABLY FOLD SEEN AS I CANT WIN WHATEVA SPOT I FIND MYSELF IN WITH AQ.

LEFT CAPS ON 4 BIT A CUDNT BE ARSED TO REWRITE THE START AGAIN


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: UpTheMariners on May 27, 2008, 12:42:32 PM
id fold this in a normal mtt and sng at this stage.


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: mondatoo on May 27, 2008, 01:23:15 PM
LOL MUST READ ORIGINAL POST PROPLY DIDNT SEE THAT THE SB HAD ALSO CALLED THE RAISE MAKING A FLAT CALL DEFINITLY NOT SOMETHING A WOULD BE LOOKING TO DO NOW.I THINK NEITHER PLAY IS THE WRONG 1 HERE AS GOING OVER THE TOP YOU COULD GET AK TO FOLD SO ONLY 3 HANDS CRUSHING YOU AND ALTHOUGH A DONT LIKE RACING AT THIS POINT IN A SAT OPP MAY ALSO PASS 8s OR 9s HERE.ID PROBABLY FOLD SEEN AS I CANT WIN WHATEVA SPOT I FIND MYSELF IN WITH AQ.

LEFT CAPS ON 4 BIT A CUDNT BE ARSED TO REWRITE THE START AGAIN

FORT ID MENTION I PUT 8 THEN AN S AS IN EIGHTS CLEARLY THERES NO WAY U CUD GET ANY ONE TO PASS THE 8 OR 9 OF SPADES NOT EVEN THE NITTIES OF NITS WOULD BE FOLDING. :)up


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: boldie on May 27, 2008, 01:37:50 PM
your caps lock still not fixed, no? ;)


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: MANTIS01 on May 27, 2008, 01:57:59 PM
Does anyone's opinion change if the sat is a turbo?


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: dino1980 on May 27, 2008, 02:37:18 PM
Does anyone's opinion change if the sat is a turbo?

I know what you're getting at Mantis, but IMO Full Tilt turbo sats aren't that turbo in comparison to say Stars. After 30 minutes on Stars blinds are 150/300/25, but on Full Tilt they're 60/120, so although classed as a turbo, these really don't play too fast IMO.


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: mondatoo on May 27, 2008, 02:39:10 PM
your caps lock still not fixed, no? ;)

 rotflmfao Am at work so always have caps on, off now just 4 u boldie  ;boldie;


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: LuckyLloyd on May 28, 2008, 04:30:17 AM
lol. Shove every time.


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: boldie on May 28, 2008, 09:04:06 AM
lol. Shove every time.

Seriously Lloyd?

BTW..Welcome back mate..where the hell have you been?


Title: Re: spots what make my head hurt
Post by: LuckyLloyd on May 28, 2008, 02:41:57 PM
Just play the opening phases of a sat like a normal tournament. If this was a tournament that had a normal payout structure and we had just played through to this stage we will want to be getting the loot in here. A C / O isolates three limpers. Why does he need JJ+ / AK to do that? A button flats that position raise. He needs JJ+ / AK to so that? The pot now equates to more than 25% of our stack and we have a very good hand that is going to have equity against everything other than AA. Just shove and be happy.