blonde poker forum

I'm interested in what PLO players think of this hand.

10 players are left, all on the same table, Vanessa Selbst has 600k and has been incredibly aggressive, raising and re-raising preflop a lot. She is only interested in winning the bracelet and thinks Tony Phillips, who has about 440k but more importantly, position, is her only rival. Everyone else has less than 300k and are not in the same league as these two, ability wise. One player has 2 big blinds left (16k) and is clinging on for life. There are just over 2.1 million chips in play, blinds are 4k/8k.

There is a raise to 20k from midposition, Vanessa Selbst picks uip Kd 8d Jh 9h, and makes it 75k to go. Tony Phillips re-raises from the blinds for full pot, putting in about 239k of his stack in with about 200k behind.

Vanessa makes the call, and Tony moves the remaining part of his stack in on the 4s 5s 8h flop. Vanessa calls, Tony shows Aspades Ahrt Qd 9d, the turn is the Td and the river the 9c meaning she wins the pot and Tony is eliminated.

I did an interview with her for Pokerlistings.com after she won the bracelet and I got the following:

I re-raised preflop with a connected double-suited hand, which is more of a cash game play, but I was playing more a cash game style, applying pressure to the shorter stacks, because they didn't want to gamble. The bubble was so tight and no-one wanted to be the guy who got knocked out before the final table.

When I got re-re-potted by Tony, I know that he's got aces at that point, I thought about it for a while, in a cash game it's a 100% standard call, I get 2/1 immediate pot odds and 3/1 on his shove. For me it's a call in a cash game, the only question was whether I want to gamble in a tournament with so many chips.

It came down to the fact that if I folded, Tony would have more chips than me, he's a very aggressive, very skilled player, who is going to have position on me on the final table, so you know what? I'm playing for the bracelet, I want to gamble it up here, it gives me a chance to knock out Tony, who will otherwise have more chips than me, have position and be outplaying me the next day on the final.

If I win, I'll be able to cruise through the final table, and even if I don't I'm still going to make the final table, I'll still have $160,000. So I figured, gamble it up, go for the bracelet, and that's what I did.

Thoughts? As initially I thought it wasn't a great call, but I can see why she made it having spoken to her.

Not a big fan of the call to be honest, on the flop (especially on the flop) I don't like it. She has about 400k back if she fold on the flop and I think that makes it a pretty standard fold with the 2 spades on the board and you knowing he has 2 aces (one of them could well be the Ace of spades with a spade kicker)

She has to call the flop bet after calling pre.  Its obv a no brainer call if the flop is rainbow and the ldo aces only have the flush draw maybe 12% of the time (my very rough calc.... i shld really know the exact odds - opps maybe nearer 20% but still a call i think)

When she makes the flop call she is virtually calling an all-in there and then...

Hmmm..... pot odds a bit pissed?

Tony Phillips should check/fold the flop imo

She can fold if she completely blanks - her hand is usually about 6/4 against aces allin but most of that 40% gets a piece of the flop unlike say AK vs QQ in he where the turn and river are a substantial piece of the winning %.

FWIW according to the official updates Phillips pushed in the rest of his stack before the flop was dealt.

I think the call looks worse than it is, but that's probably coz I'm more of a holdem player and get done in PLO cash games.

PRE:
Omaha Hi Simulation
1,086,008 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
Kd8dJh9h 42.11% 457,266 201
AsAhQd9d 57.89% 628,541 201

FLOP:
Omaha Hi Simulation
820 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 4s5s8h
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
Kd8dJh9h 41.46% 340 0
AsAhQd9d 58.54% 480 0

So with her equity in the hand pre and post flop plus the p.odds I guess it's ok. The big question is do u want to risk going out of the tourney if u miss. I think a lot of "old school" pros would have folded wanting to preserve their "tournament life" whereas for an internet player this is a pretty standard call.

life to fight another day or pays ur money and take your shot.

Which is best I'm not sure but she did win so....

Check fold before the flop is dealt then obv.

apparently by the time this tourney got HU the guy who came 2nd was steaming drunk and was potting both pre and post flop blind

Yes but the odds against his range are different..you're only taken into account the odds against his hand.. what are the odds of her winning the hand if he has 2 spades in it?

Yeah I realsie that now, all I really wanted to see was what the equities were for the actual hands so I could see if her answer stood up

shes 35% vs aaxx so an easy call

Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 4s5s8h
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
Kd8dJh9h 35.91% 214,829 1,266
AA** 64.09% 383,905 1,266

Really? AA** is only 64% there? What is AA with a spade there then?

its not really relevant as the above is the decision that Selbst has to make, but I think the aa with a spade draw was about 75%.
 

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