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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: UpTheMariners on July 09, 2008, 03:56:45 PM



Title: Set v Nit
Post by: UpTheMariners on July 09, 2008, 03:56:45 PM
eddie236 16/4/1.04 (296 hands)


***** Pacific Hand History for Game 100998762 *****
$2/$4 Blinds No Limit Hold'em - *** 07 09 13:58:12 2008
Table Jet (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 10: stinkyb ( $404.75 )
Seat 2: gr1msby ( $1485.48 )
Seat 4: eddie236 ( $424 )
Seat 6: iam29 ( $456 )
Seat 7: Laurie86 ( $931.8 )
Seat 9: anderst ( $502.31 )
eddie236 posts small blind [$2].
iam29 posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to gr1msby [  Th  Ts ]
Laurie86 folds.
anderst folds.
stinkyb folds.
gr1msby raises [$14].
eddie236 calls [$12].
iam29 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [  Tc, 2c, Qc ]
eddie236 checks.
gr1msby bets [$24].
eddie236 calls [$24].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7s ]
eddie236 checks.
gr1msby bets [$62].
eddie236 raises [$124].
gr1msby calls [$62].
** Dealing River ** [ 4h ]
eddie236 bets [$262].
gr1msby....


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: WYSINWYG on July 09, 2008, 04:26:10 PM
Tough spot. IMO this is the way a lot of people play a big/nut flush. Obv he's scared of you catching on so flat calls flop, sees you're still interested on turn, builds the pot, by river is convinced you're going nowhere so puts in a bunch of chips.
Possible occasional scenario (I get in live games but only from weird slags) is that they have at least a good flush draw and want to buy insurance against a failed draw by showing strength like this on the turn to lay the foundations of a bluff on the river. The good news is that only specific types of player make this move, and I'd hope to have enough history on him to rule him out of it. But given its rarity I'm normally putting them on a flopped flush here right at the flat call on the flop. Again, often you can differentiate flopped flush versus draw by previous exposure to the player. Also, what did he call with out of position preflop? Nits love suited Ace x.
I check the turn hoping I can see the board pair for cheap, he has no reason to scare you away on the turn (thus the min reraise).
By the river, you have shown sufficient interest to call some decent bets, so he doesn't let you showdown for free. Also, if you had shown that amount of interest, bluffs really aint gonna work so he ain't making one.
You've been trapped by the turn call, but I think I can still fold the river.
You only lose big with your big hands....
Just my tuppence worth, I await to be shot down lol.


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: WYSINWYG on July 09, 2008, 04:30:39 PM
ps when I say I check the turn, I have already placed a larger flop bet than $24. It's pricing out draws and it's giving a lot more information. If I'd placed a $24 bet on the flop I'm probably betting the turn like you did. When he reraises I'm bricking it and ready to fold on the river, tbh. But it depends on your opponent.


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: Royal Flush on July 09, 2008, 04:32:47 PM
ps when I say I check the turn, I have already placed a larger flop bet than $24. It's pricing out draws and it's giving a lot more information. If I'd placed a $24 bet on the flop I'm probably betting the turn like you did. When he reraises I'm bricking it and ready to fold on the river, tbh. But it depends on your opponent.

Agree its best to bet for information rather than to widen your oppo's range to hands that can't beat you.....


You folded he showed 22?


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: Rookie (Rodney) on July 09, 2008, 04:37:05 PM
Just call v quickly - move onto next hand and tilt


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: Sunday8pm on July 09, 2008, 04:39:24 PM
Not read OP - ALLIN


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: Rookie (Rodney) on July 09, 2008, 04:42:01 PM
Not read OP - ALLIN

lol, i was waiting for this.


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: boldie on July 09, 2008, 08:48:44 PM
I don't get/like Villain's min check-raise on the turn...hate that play.


I call here, he could have a small flush but unlikely as he's a nit (and a nit doesn't call your pre-flop raise with small clubs, does he?). I doubt he has a big flush as the min raise on the turn is a stupid bet if he has one..(even if he doesn't as I said above..I just don't like the play but admittedly it might/has confuse(d) me). I call and expect to be ahead here more often than not.


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: WYSINWYG on July 09, 2008, 09:12:24 PM
I don't get/like Villain's min check-raise on the turn...hate that play.


I call here, he could have a small flush but unlikely as he's a nit (and a nit doesn't call your pre-flop raise with small clubs, does he?). I doubt he has a big flush as the min raise on the turn is a stupid bet if he has one..(even if he doesn't as I said above..I just don't like the play but admittedly it might/has confuse(d) me). I call and expect to be ahead here more often than not.

Please explain why he won't have a big flush here or why it's stupid? For me it screams big flush but it's a fairly regular trapping move. How often do you see it folded online? Builds a pot/trap for the river bet. Seems to have worked...


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: UpTheMariners on July 09, 2008, 09:21:05 PM
ps when I say I check the turn, I have already placed a larger flop bet than $24. It's pricing out draws and it's giving a lot more information. If I'd placed a $24 bet on the flop I'm probably betting the turn like you did. When he reraises I'm bricking it and ready to fold on the river, tbh. But it depends on your opponent.

Agree its best to bet for information rather than to widen your oppo's range to hands that can't beat you.....


You folded he showed 22?

i dont think 22 is in his range surely he would want to get it in on the flop? if he wanted to see if a safe turn card comes surely he would charge more as his hand is vulnerable to a flush draw?


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: doubleup on July 09, 2008, 09:33:01 PM
Whats is bb defend %?  if Axs is in that then that is what he surely has.  He def thinks he has the best hand.  The turn check min rs was pot building not timidity.


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: bolt pp on July 10, 2008, 08:51:31 PM
fold


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: UpTheMariners on July 10, 2008, 09:07:14 PM
Whats is bb defend %?  if Axs is in that then that is what he surely has.  He def thinks he has the best hand.  The turn check min rs was pot building not timidity.
fold sb to steal 80% fold bb to steal 84%


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: doubleup on July 10, 2008, 09:48:55 PM
Whats is bb defend %?  if Axs is in that then that is what he surely has.  He def thinks he has the best hand.  The turn check min rs was pot building not timidity.
fold sb to steal 80% fold bb to steal 84%

A few suited aces in that range, so the flush is more likely than a set.  I cant see him playing AcQx like this altho a bizarrely played AxAc is possible I suppose, but the play seems too aggressive. 


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: AlexMartin on July 11, 2008, 03:23:24 AM
fold

quite sick, but i find myself agreeing. 1.04 aggro factor, lol.

think the first time round its best to call the min re-raisers/check raisers, after that it pretty damn reliable and is how they play all their monsters. min re-raisers generally arent good enough to vbet thinner than a flush here imo.


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: lucky_scrote on July 11, 2008, 09:07:41 AM
Fold 1000000000000% of the time, I mean, your call on the turn is absolutely standard as not only do you have pot odds, your implied odds are very good too.

He has a set here like, never as he would not play it this way on this board. He has a flush here pretty much every time.


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: WYSINWYG on July 11, 2008, 12:16:03 PM
Fold 1000000000000% of the time, I mean, your call on the turn is absolutely standard as not only do you have pot odds, your implied odds are very good too.

He has a set here like, never as he would not play it this way on this board. He has a flush here pretty much every time.

Yeah implied odds pretty massive, I don't expect many to fold their flush simply because the board paired. 'Woohoo, he's got trips now, watch me crush him with my concealed flush' more like...Which is backed up by your flat call on the turn.


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: WYSINWYG on July 11, 2008, 12:22:48 PM
pps I have seen folk play your hand backwards here a couple of times, ie they kind of think: well, I have this massive hand, I might be defending it, or I might be miles behind. If I defend it, I push the pot size up, but if I see the river cheap (my lack of interest keeps the pot small), and improve, I can still get all the chips from a made flush. If he's chasing, he may not pay your set that much anyway, since he may already put you possibly on the flush.


Title: Re: Set v Nit
Post by: snoopy1239 on July 14, 2008, 09:40:36 PM
Fold. Only beating 2-2 or a stonecold bluff in my book, which is unlikely if he's a nit. Small check-raise on turn out of position seems strong rather than bare ace.