Title: Fold Equity question Post by: Benny Brox on July 10, 2008, 09:31:50 PM Yo, not posted for a while cos I've been travelling. In Vegas at the mo' playing a mix of cash & tourney. Anyways...
Palms Casino - $1/$3 - 10 handed - been at table about 45 minutes, played quite tight but raised last 3 out of last 5 pots but also had to lay down aces in the previous hand. Usually though table seems pretty loose and weak, any raise is getting called by rubbish like K10o. UTG+2 (not played many hands, so can presume tight player?) raises to $10 I'm sitting in CO with Ad Qd - I flat call. BB also calls. Flop - Kd Td 5c - $31 in pot BB bets out $30, UTG+2 min-raises to $60. Both have me covered. I have $157 left. If I push, which is reasonable as I have 12 clean outs twice (4 Jacks, 8 for flush), do you think I also have fold equity here based on what I have left or do I need more info on how my opponents play first? Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: doubleup on July 10, 2008, 09:42:34 PM Not much, either first better pushes or raiser calls (tho he might not like it). Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: TheChipPrince on July 10, 2008, 09:44:51 PM Lets assume the BB folds if you push (which you should, quickly, as Flushy would say ''insta snap-jam'').. UTG+2 only has to call $97 to win $375, so no, you dont have any fold equity, well, unless he is totally bluffing with no pair no draw...
Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: Moskvich on July 10, 2008, 09:57:40 PM Lets assume the BB folds if you push (which you should, quickly, as Flushy would say ''insta snap-jam'').. UTG+2 only has to call $97 to win $375, so no, you dont have any fold equity, well, unless he is totally bluffing with no pair no draw... If the BB folds to a push and UTG+2 calls, why would you want to push here, given that all your outs are to the nuts? Surely you're better off flat-calling and hoping to get this all in 3 ways, even if that means putting the rest in on a missed turn. Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: kinboshi on July 10, 2008, 09:59:21 PM Lets assume the BB folds if you push (which you should, quickly, as Flushy would say ''insta snap-jam'').. UTG+2 only has to call $97 to win $375, so no, you dont have any fold equity, well, unless he is totally bluffing with no pair no draw... If the BB folds to a push and UTG+2 calls, why would you want to push here, given that all your outs are to the nuts? Surely you're better off flat-calling and hoping to get this all in 3 ways, even if that means putting the rest in on a missed turn. Especially if he's drawing to a smaller flush. ;) Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: Longy on July 10, 2008, 10:10:49 PM You don't have much but there is always some, cos people do daft things and your shove will look super strong.
With 12 clean outs we are anywhere between 35-45% to win this hand given we may find ourselves up against a set. With whats already in the pot and possibly a dead 30 or even better bb comes along for the ride, this is quite a trivial shove imo. Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: Horneris on July 10, 2008, 10:37:59 PM I duno, id shove and pray to the lord that they call.
Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: ChipRich on July 10, 2008, 10:44:24 PM I duno, id shove and pray to the lord that they call. haha, but yeh fistpump it in. Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: gatso on July 10, 2008, 10:49:49 PM I duno, id shove and pray to the lord that they call. haha, but yeh fistpump it in. ya. I don't want FE, I want money Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: Moskvich on July 10, 2008, 11:21:30 PM Lets assume the BB folds if you push (which you should, quickly, as Flushy would say ''insta snap-jam'').. UTG+2 only has to call $97 to win $375, so no, you dont have any fold equity, well, unless he is totally bluffing with no pair no draw... If the BB folds to a push and UTG+2 calls, why would you want to push here, given that all your outs are to the nuts? Surely you're better off flat-calling and hoping to get this all in 3 ways, even if that means putting the rest in on a missed turn. Especially if he's drawing to a smaller flush. ;) Lol exactly. Now never mention that again. :redcard: Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: Benny Brox on July 11, 2008, 01:23:37 AM Cheers for that.
I did shove though thinking I'd be against the BBs KQ or JQ. I put the min-raiser (and original raiser pre-flop) on AK or possibly a set of 10s or Jacks cos he hasn't played many hands. Anyways, BB humps and haws and then reluctantly folds. UTG+2 calls almost immediately once he finds out it's $97 more. We don't turn our hands over until the turn and river come out - 6h 9c - So I say "Your Ace-King wins mate" and then he tables Jc Ts - I then said "Nice hand you played that well to him, you really caught me out there" cos I reloaded but actually I thought "You're a f*****g muppet". Anybody call here with 2nd pair rubbish kicker in this spot even though it's only $97 more? I would have mucked it against a player who hasn't been out of line.. Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: AlexMartin on July 11, 2008, 08:14:54 AM Lets assume the BB folds if you push (which you should, quickly, as Flushy would say ''insta snap-jam'').. UTG+2 only has to call $97 to win $375, so no, you dont have any fold equity, well, unless he is totally bluffing with no pair no draw... If the BB folds to a push and UTG+2 calls, why would you want to push here, given that all your outs are to the nuts? Surely you're better off flat-calling and hoping to get this all in 3 ways, even if that means putting the rest in on a missed turn. :goodpost: ;iagree; just obv dont forget to get it in on turn, regardless of card. Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: M3boy on July 11, 2008, 08:41:40 AM I duno, id shove and pray to the lord that they call. haha, but yeh fistpump it in. ya. I don't want FE, I want money I agree, im not looking for fold equity here either, I want all the money in 3 way Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: Sunday8pm on July 11, 2008, 09:20:54 AM Prob best to flat the $60 raise then, as you might be inducing the original bettor to shove, thus creating better pot odds for yourself.
Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: Longy on July 11, 2008, 09:35:44 AM Prob best to flat the $60 raise then, as you might be inducing the original bettor to shove, thus creating better pot odds for yourself. Problem comes if bb flats or folds, which is a lot more likely. If we blank the turn we lose a lot of equity and may be a nasty spot if the board pairs. Also if we hit we might totally lose our customer as the 9 diamonds are deffo scare cards, making the pot alot smaller. Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: action man on July 11, 2008, 11:36:16 AM if you min re-raise again from $60 to $90 they both fold
Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: doubleup on July 11, 2008, 11:53:55 AM if you min re-raise again from $60 to $90 they both fold Maybe, but is it worth your reputation? Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: Sunday8pm on July 11, 2008, 12:33:09 PM Prob best to flat the $60 raise then, as you might be inducing the original bettor to shove, thus creating better pot odds for yourself. Problem comes if bb flats or folds, which is a lot more likely. If we blank the turn we lose a lot of equity and may be a nasty spot if the board pairs. Also if we hit we might totally lose our customer as the 9 diamonds are deffo scare cards, making the pot alot smaller. Thing is OP is quite shallow stacked so i think hoping for folding equity is quite optimistic. Obviously we are not passing the hand so maybe trying to get the hand 3 way to the turn would be optimal dont you think? I think we don't need to worry about reeling in a customer if we hit as we would only have $90 back and the pot would be $200+. Chances are a flush card could make somebody a pair + 4 flush, which they dont pass in live poker or even a 5 flush. And a Jack may well fill in those JT, KJ kinda hands. Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: Royal Flush on July 11, 2008, 01:51:06 PM Obviously shove is best as it turned the Q and A into outs!
Title: Re: Fold Equity question Post by: Sunday8pm on July 11, 2008, 04:44:25 PM Obviously shove is best as it turned the Q and A into outs! AFTERTIMING SCUMBAG LEAVE ME ALONE |