blonde poker forum

The Open Championship is as wide open as I can ever remember. This is not just due to the absence of Tiger Woods, but also I think due to a lot of the established pros not continuing to perform at the level they once could. I will be looking to back value golfers who have a good chance at favourable odds of a least 50-1.

Here is my opinion of the main contenders

Sergio Garcia – A worthy favourite with a great chance but at 12-1 I will be looking elsewhere

Phil Mickelson - has never performed well on a links course -  I will be Laying

Ernie Els -  Just not the golfer he once was  -  I will be Laying

Padraig Harrington – Out of form, done nothing since winning the open last year.  -  I will be Laying

Lee Westwood – Ahh if only he could putt

Adam Scott – Probably the most talented golfer next to Tiger but very frustrating to back. Blows up very easily.


My picks (bets) are –

Graeme Mcdowell –  A golfer in top form with a good win in the Scottish open and a good run in the European the week before.  I lumped on big style at 80-1 last week. Still great value at 55/60 – 1

Ross Fisher – In great form with a recent win in the European open. One of the longest and straightest hitters on the tour. 65 / 70 -1



I have also placed a few small lottery bets at stupid odds –

Camilo Villegas 200/1
Rocco Mediate – 300/1
Johan Edfors – 300/1
Philip Archer – 1000/1
Charles Howell 3rd -  480/1
Kevin Stadler 800/1
John Daly 800/1


Good luck with  your picks and if your not sure back Graeme Mcdowell FTW -  you wont regret it -

All those bets and not a shilling on Poulter ... maybe you do know a bit about golf afterall ;)

Fk me, Sergio 'El Choker' Garcia is favourite?

John Daly to be backed at 800 then layed massively after a good first round.

Jimenez for the win.

This is a real tough one to call this year, so i have just gone for a few small bets to start with for interest and will probably re-evaluate on Saturday morning.

TO start with have gone with:

G Ogilvy @ 36
R Allenby @ 55
S Ames @ 130
N O Hern @ 200
S O'Hair @ 240
R Sabbatini @ 210

I'm not usually prone to sentimentality when it comes to betting but if one player deserves to win an Open at Birkdale it is Stuart Appleby who's wife was killed between two cars at Waterloo station on their way back from the 1998 Open at Birkdale.

http://www.golftoday.co.uk/news/yeartodate/news98/appleby2.htm

http://www.signsofthetimes.org.au/archives/2004/november/article8.shtm

His head will most likely be all over the place returning this year but If there is a karma in sport I hope that he wins so I am on at 110 on Betfair.

I'd forgotten about that.

I havent backed him but really hope that he plays well in light of what happened.  Could you imagine the emotion if he was to win it this week.
GL to the guy.

Chris, I don't follow golf that closely (except the Ryder Cup) but according to last Friday's Sport magazine Westwood is joint 7th is avg putts per green. This doesn't say over what time period (2008 perhaps?) but has he historically been a bad putter? He's also ranked no 1 in Iron play with 76.8% of greens hit.

P.S these stats can be seen in the mag which is online here: http://www.myfreesport.co.uk/images/stories/issues/83/Sport083.pdf   (page 7 fyi)

He's great tee to green, but often can't sink a putt for toffee...see last month's US open for evidence

Golfers who hit a lot of greens often have what appear to be poor putting stats. simply because they have more long puts ergo more two-putt greens. I don't think Westwood is as bad a putter as he and many others make out.

You on Poulter Ralphy ya big dirty gooner ?

xxx

As Chris says it's a very open Open with many top players performing below their best thus far this term.

I've only had a couple of bets so far:

Andres Romero @ 55, and Hunter Mahan @ 75.

Hunter Mahan looks interesting. He is a solid links player and is in good form. 66/1 on him has gone and is now trading around 50/1.  Still worth a bet though.

Garcia is, in my opinion, a worthy favourite. He is never far off at the open and seems to have sorted his head and putting out. His late tee time on Thursday may be a slight disadvantage but he'll be thereabouts on Sunday evening. 11's are available

I thought about backing Cink this year as he has looked good in the US and despite ropey opens in the past, performed well last year. I haven't backed him with any money though, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him romp home.

Lee Westwood is a world class golfer who has a great chance of winning the open. I would definately not Lay him in this event.

I do feel Westwoods putting does let him down when it really matters. In the final round of the US open (as I remember) he did not hole one putt over 6 ft and he had numerous chances, a lot of which were left short of the hole.

Quite often I have seen Westwoods frustration at missed opportunities on the (putting) green go on to affect his long game.

I hope he does well as he really deserves a major title but at 20/1 he is not for me.

One more golfer I forgot to mention who has a great chance is Miguel Angel Jimenez. Unfortunately the smart money has already brought his price down to 38/1

In Open Championship

Ogilvy - 30/1
Cink - 33/1

my "Karabiner" - Finch 250/1

Also in US Bank Championship

Armour III - 25/1
Baird - 30/1

in various singles & doubles bets

Is that Ian Baker-"Finch" ?

I am gonna put 50p on Poulter if no one backs him by this time tomorrow !

Don't worry Kev backing Poulter is as much as a ritual as backing Spurs to lose each week.

Kind of a spite Kev thing - one week he might win something.

Got to be on Jiminez ... great form, great player ...

Richard - had a little each way nibble at Paddy Power as they are paying top 7 places

Appleby apart Im gonna sit this one out until I get an idea of how the wind and tee times are likely to pan out.I spoke to a friend who was there yesterday and he thinks it will be a fair test, with tough rough but if the wind does get up there are one or two par 4 holes that might be tough to reach if the wind is head on. He mentioned the 14th and 15th as being super tough anyway and all in all Im gonna bet in running if owt takes the eye. There could deffo be some value in opposing players out in what turn out to be the worst conditions on Friday for instance.

I agree Phil, the forecast is for 15/20 mph winds for all four days.

Good - links courses lose a lot of their edge and challenge if there's no wind.

Betfair does top 10 finishers and I'm tempted by Justin Rose and Oliver Wilson - doubt either will win but top 10 are definite possibilities IMO (not bad odds either Rose 4.3 and Wilson 12.5 currently).

I ahve £10 e/w on westwood, come on bring the bacon home, im going as well i have a ticket for saturday!!!!! WOOOP WOOOP!!!!!!!

How exciting! :D

hi Ralph, the Saturday forecast is really bad, it could well be that being 5-6 off the lead after 2 rounds means you are out 3 hours before the leaders and could be a huge advantage if the weather is bad in the afternoon.

The back nine looks to be playing so much tougher than the front nine and looks to be suoer tough if the wind is as predicted.,

Its gonna be fun.

Justin Rose FTW!!!!  Got to land one sometime....

I'm on Garcia @ 20/1,Jimenez @ 40/1 and Romero @ 50/1. Also backed a few huge priced hackers on betfair.

There's only 3 yanks @ 40/1 or under,how times change.

On the bbc preview tonight,Torrence said late on Thursday and early on Friday could be the best conditions,which would be good for Sergio.

No bets here ... if i had to put an each way bet on it would be on Allenby

Conditions are awful this morning and it is going to be tough going.
The opening group are through 10 holes and there are no players under par!!!!

Unless the weather improves 1 or 2 over is going to be a decent score today.

Sandy Lyle has walked off the course! ROFL!

I backed Harrington at 100s about an hour ago, now trading at 36-40.. Should I be laying?

Sorry if this has already been posted but you can watch live golf via the BBC website all day from work :)

If you work in an office where there are 10 Tv's infront of you, you can watch the golf/horses/dogsskysports news etc etc too :D ;D

Oh, he's just birdied, ship.

...provided your IT department hasn't blocked all streaming audio and video content from the BBC site because you sat there watching Euro 2008 games every afternoon. :(

I would, but only because I made the same mistake with a couple last year and did not lay off..

Decided not to, aint bothered about small amount of money... Harrington FTW

or Ross Fisher, or Mcdowell.

Just Monty (again) and Jiminez for me

You put money on Mrs. Doubtfire ???

It is carnage out on the course.

80 players out and only Goosen at Level Par, the other 79 players all over par!

The open's so heaaaaven.

True grind.

GOOOOOOO Poulter LOLOLOL 

I've got a couple of quid on poulter at 110 - him and Jimenez are the only two I haven't layed off where I can. KJ Choi has basically got my stakes back - though obv I'll now be gutted if he wins it or has another good round tomorrow!! The John Daly bet hasn't quite worked as I had hoped!

Come on Poulter!!!!!

Not bad, i have mcdowell at 48, currently trading 14.5 & tied for the lead at -1...

Harrington I had @ 100, laid at 36 when he finished +4 and everyone thought that would be a good score given circumstances but nobody wanted to look at the weather clearing up, he is now trading @ 50.

And Ross fisher @ 80, who is now trading at 50 after a first day +2..

Very pleased with Allenby being joint leader.

The rest of them have a bit of work to do tomorrow to get in the mix for the weekend.

In a tournament where scoring has been unbelievably hard, Camillo Villegas of Colombia has just shot a second round 65, including 8 birdies.

He also birdied the last 5 holes!!!

What an amazing achievement which sees him just 1 shot off the lead and almost certainly out in the final pairing tomorrow.
All this after an opening round of 76.

Very nice

tht is abs sick shooting.

Long way to go but looking very good to be in contention on come the final day with a few bets

Camilo Villegas 200/1

Rocco Mediate – 300/1

Graeme Mcdowell - 80/1

I thought Mcdowell was very unlucky today with bunkers costing him probably 3/4 shots and no putts holed which is not like him.

Greg Norman played well but holed 6 puts from 10 - 30 feet when it mattered

Still wide open though and the weather playing a big part

Camillo Villegas's round of 65 this morning when conditions were tougher than this afternoon (although nothing like yesterday morning) is a simply stupendous achievement, three shots better that anyone else has done in far more clement conditions, one of The Open Championship's greatest ever rounds I would venture to suggest.

Pod's eagle, birdie finish today was pretty good too for a guy struggling with a wrist injury which I felt sure gave him no chance at all of winning this week.

50mph winds forecast for tomorrow afternoon - laying all the leaders tonight might be profitable.

give me the name of a low hitter, accurate guy within 6 shots please.....

want a small investment for the weekend while I watch at Blackpool

i am going for a e/w punt on Goosen for rough weather.

did well in the nasty stuff thursday

40-1 is the best I can see, currently +6

A word of warning Rich, Goosen's putting looks shot to sh*t imho...

A low ball hitter who was going well apart from the last couple of holes despite being paired with Mrs. Doubtfire and who putts great is my queer  ::)

I know this sounds ridiculous but Duval looks to be playing as well as he has in five years or so  ;gobsmacked;

I've just noticed that there has been £1600+ traded @ 1000 on Duval in BF win market, squeaky bum time ?

Damn!!!!!!!!!!! I completely suck at timing when to lay off bets.

Ive added Ames at an average of 75 to my Appleby bets with a back and lay free bet of Furyk too. Took a chance on Mick going out early today and making a bit of progress so would be nice to get some of these near the top by the end of the day.

The spread firms have most of the field in to shoot around +5 for their rounds today and the early starters are struggling badly so this could be carnage today.

gl everyone.

Bloody hell Poulter ... start dropping shots please !

gogogogogo Harington, ldo

Mcdowell has gone.

I have, Harrington, Choi, Mcdowell, Furyk & Fisher all for a profit if they win.

Gtd that Norman wins it now. Fk my life.

Gd round by the englishman Wakefield today too.

fk my life, poulter will probs be joint leader at this rate ... still i can always rely on his sunday blow up ;)

birdie for harrington, cmon cmon!!

Not had a bet but i'm loving watching this, seeing the best in the game really struggle yet playing some superb golf at the same time....awesome

Ya reckon Porridge played up the injured wrist to jack up his price?..... ;)      he's playing superb

That was my theory when backing him earlier in week, not to make bigger price but to give him an excuse being defending champion...

just bet on Justin Leonard £30 @ 310's on betfair... I think Norman will blow up,  harrington/choi to score 2 or 3 over, winning score likely around 6 over, leonards on 10 over, and the way he bunts the ball low, if his putting gets on song, he can ship it 4 under tomo npnp

should be an awesome days golf tomorrow, gl with all the bets.

I am in deep now. If a 53 year old part time golfer that is playing coz the tourney fitted into his honeymoon schedule wins I am gonna be eating beans for a month.

Im trying to comfort myself in the fact that even in his prime Norman had some terrible blow ups under pressure and he looked whacked when he came off the course today. Lets hope that Pod can come to the rescue for the 2nd year running.

That's 1 sick bet m8 best of luck

Best of luck with this one Totalise - 1 after 2 holes today.

Agreed, got to love a speculative punt ... you in a position to trade off if he gets within a few shots of the lead or are you just gonna ride it ?

gl anyways.

All green but ideally there will be a virtual hurricane, that doesn't move the balls, and leads to mass over parage. Howell and Karlson end up in a playoff with Els and Howell takes it down for the big $$$. Not asking much I don't think.

gogogooggogo harringtonnnnnnnnnnn

[  ] Greg Norman is ridding himself of the choker tag.

Fk my life

Who's peoples fancy now to win this.Poulter just missed a big chance with a birdie put shame!,I will be a bit out there and predict Padraig will do the biz  ;)

pslplspls

Anybody but Harrington please, I laid him on betfair at 1.76 about an hour ago.

[ ] I know lots about golf.
[ ] I am good at sports betting.
[X] I just wanted a sweat while watching the golf.

Before the tournament started, Betfair's spread on the winning score was -7 to -5.

When this fell by the wayside, they had a new one at -1 to +1.

Their third one is +4 to +6. The long side of this is already 1.3.

POULTER !!!!!!!!

i have a bet on furyk at 50's

Level

Pink Pants is now 2nd favourite to win.

and wakefield

 ;bumwiggle; ;bumwiggle;

gogogogoog harrington you mofo!

FFS ... Please god NO !!!

Come on Poulter!!!!

My new sig will be a pic of Poults holding the jug :)

Harrington can save my life !!

Poulter playing out of his skin.

gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

FFS .... how did he sink that on the 18th


please Harrington ...PLEASE

fk knows, was counting my money if he bogeys that, douche.

On the 15th green (par5) in 2. Get down in 2 you bastard!!!!

NOW HOLD !!!

BOK

LMAO

AYYYYYYYYAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

FUCKING AWESOME WOOD SHOT

Top shot.  ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;applause; ;applause;

WOW ... that was special !

People still asking for 180-240 on BF for Poulter!!

I don't think it would be ott to suggest that was 1 of the best shots ever played at that stage of a major by the leading player truly amazing shot

VWP Harrington

SHIPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPp

Awesome.

GG.

How the heck could he win, i thought he was injured badly! lol nice result. What odds did people back him.

100...

Laid at 30, but left plenty on - luverrrrly.

Well done that man!

Awesome.

Harrington hit some amazingly pure shots on those closing holes under the greatest pressure there is.

Imagine if he hadn't have been injured.

 ;hattip;

FYP ;)

How could he not thank tiger for not turning up, totally ungrateful imo  ;)

Lesson learnt for me, never ever just assume that someone cannot win even tho everything points to him not winning and secondly never ever be against Pod in those condistions, he saved the bacon for the second year running.


nice work Rookie, nowt better than backing high and laying low and getting a good return.

WD to those who backed Harrington, cant stand the guy tho bores me to death

If you got rid of all the boring golfers there wouldn't be many left.

the guy has no charisma at all hes just really really dull, yes an irish jig might have helped