blonde poker forum

Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: ACE2M on July 16, 2008, 11:18:06 AM



Title: double your money
Post by: ACE2M on July 16, 2008, 11:18:06 AM
Double your money STT

UTG 4,000

UTG+1 900

CO 900

B 700

SB 1300

BB 1200

 

On the BB, blinds are 75/150 and I get dealt QQ.

UTG+1 raises to 300, CO calls, folded round to me.

Fold?

How do you work out the equity in these flat structures?



Title: Re: double your money
Post by: booder on July 16, 2008, 11:20:33 AM
fold?    stick them in.


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: TheChipPrince on July 16, 2008, 11:21:54 AM
Top 5 get paid?  Tough, but i'd at least take a flop...  Or put them both all-in, if all the money goes in your highly unlikely to have the 3rd best hand, if you get unlucky you still have 300 left...  Do you think you can fold your way to the money from here?


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: Rookie (Rodney) on July 16, 2008, 11:31:05 AM
stick them in.


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: ACE2M on July 16, 2008, 11:32:14 AM
top 5 get paid


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: TheChipPrince on July 16, 2008, 11:35:48 AM
Arent these 10 seaters?  If so why is there only 9000 chips on the table?


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: ACE2M on July 16, 2008, 11:36:36 AM
Arent these 10 seaters?  If so why is there only 9000 chips on the table?

UTG 5000 not 4000 sorry.


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: TheChipPrince on July 16, 2008, 11:44:05 AM
Arent these 10 seaters?  If so why is there only 9000 chips on the table?

UTG 5000 not 4000 sorry.

No probs, doesnt alter much...  I would push, the original raiser is highly likely to fold,  min raise here, in my eyes is just a blatant blind steal with everyone now playing so tight... The CO calls 33% of his stack, he's not playing AA or KK here, unless he's a genius or a clown... There is so many positives to pushing, they both fold, your virtually in the money, 1 calls your likely ahead...  I'd find it very very hard to fold...


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: Moskvich on July 16, 2008, 12:21:27 PM
UTG+1 isn't (shouldn't be) folding anything here. He can't leave himself with 4bbs when he's going to get the blinds before the other short stacks. (Obviously he should be shoving to start with, don't know what the fact that he doesn't shove means, could be AA/KK/AK, could be that it's just a horrible play, depends on how he's played up to this point). If he does fold then CO can also fold - which would be good for you and everyone else, of course, but which also means he probably can't fold. (Maybe depends a bit on when the blinds are going to go up.)

If you push and UTG+1 calls then CO could possibly fold (though again, what he's doing flat calling in the first place is anyone's guess). Depends a bit on whether UTG+1 and CO actually have identical stacks or whether they're slightly different. If you push and UTG+1 calls and CO has marginally more chips than UTG+1, then CO can probably call, since he's in the money as long as UTG+1 doesn't win the hand ahead of the two of you.

Anyway, I don't think you want to be getting this in preflop, as if it does go heads-up and you lose then you're down to 300 and have almost blinded out. Rest of the table can let the blinds go through them. Or gang up on you if you push before that happens.

Maybe flat call and check flop. If UTG+1 and CO both get it in on the flop then it doesn't matter what you do as one of them's out. Any A or K on the flop, or coordinated board, and it's obviously a fold - there are still two people substantially shorter than you. Uncoordinated low flop - maybe you could call versus one of them.

I suspect the fold is the best option though. Getting this all-in and losing is a disaster (in SNG terms...). CO has already done you a massive favour by calling the raise, let 'em get on with it.


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: boldie on July 16, 2008, 12:25:18 PM
I reckon it's a fold..you're not out to win the tourney but just to not get knocked out next.


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: Moskvich on July 16, 2008, 12:36:23 PM
Thinking about it a bit more, I definitely reckon it's a fold. You just don't need to be there, and if do you call then it's possible that your presence in the pot will discourage the other two from getting it in against each other, as they'll both be hoping that you'll take the other one out.

If UTG+1 had just shoved and it had folded round to you, then equity calculator thing suggests only calling with AA (assuming a range of pairs, aces and big kings). If he's shoving 50% here then QQ and KK are still borderline.


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: snoopy1239 on July 16, 2008, 03:17:14 PM
I've never played on of these, but I'd imagine it depends on the standard of play. If there are a couple of fish swimming the tank, then I'd fold too.


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: pokefast on July 16, 2008, 03:42:12 PM
excuse me for being a noooooooooby but what in the name of all that is holy is a double your money STT?

Where can these games be found?

Where have i been hiding?


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: TheChipPrince on July 16, 2008, 03:44:59 PM
excuse me for being a noooooooooby but what in the name of all that is holy is a double your money STT?

Where can these games be found?

Where have i been hiding?

Excactly what it says. In the 10 seaters top 5 get paid, 6 seaters top 3 get paid, equal amounts, all the same...  Very much like satelites in a way

Crypto at all levels, not sure where else...


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: pokefast on July 16, 2008, 03:46:56 PM
excuse me for being a noooooooooby but what in the name of all that is holy is a double your money STT?

Where can these games be found?

Where have i been hiding?

Excactly what it says. In the 10 seaters top 5 get paid, 6 seaters top 3 get paid, equal amounts, all the same...  Very much like satelites in a way

Crypto at all levels, not sure where else...


Thanks and sorry for being so stupid lack of nicotine!

What skins use crypto these days?


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: TheChipPrince on July 16, 2008, 03:50:51 PM
DTD Poker, Sun Poker, Interpoker, William Hill, WPT and Littlewoods, few more as well...


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: TightEnd on July 16, 2008, 04:16:10 PM
PKR too, all levels up to $100

play them as sats, a number of others won't


Easy money, in a boring way


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: boldie on July 16, 2008, 04:16:47 PM
Any chance of Blonde starting something like this?


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: TightEnd on July 16, 2008, 04:22:21 PM
Any chance of Blonde starting something like this?


ask the other mug, I'd like to see them for sure


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: boldie on July 16, 2008, 04:24:22 PM
Any chance of Blonde starting something like this?


ask the other mug, I'd like to see them for sure

Come on Kev, I might actually have a chance in these things.. set them up please mate.


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: Longy on July 16, 2008, 05:45:51 PM
ICM problem, i have never played these so im unsure of standard ICM spots with this payout structure.

I would imagine this is a push, given we are still in danger of bubbling and the short stack still has 5bbs.

Just noticed if we lose we don't actually bubble, i would be uber surprised if this turns out to be a fold. Im off to check it.



Title: Re: double your money
Post by: Longy on July 16, 2008, 06:13:13 PM
Ok using an icm calc

Our current equity is 17.3%

If we shove and win we burst the bubble and get 20%.

If we shove and lose our equity falls 8.75%.

Estimate on villans range something like top 12.5% (44+, kj+, a9+), we are 68/32 against that range.

(.68*20) + (.32*8.75)=13.6+2.8= 16.4%

Ugh looks like a -.9% move. This is assuming we have no fold equity.


In conclusion it may well be fold but if we have any fold equity it gets very close, consider myself surprised.


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: ACE2M on July 16, 2008, 06:21:25 PM
Ok using an icm calc

Our current equity is 17.3%

If we shove and win we burst the bubble and get 20%.

If we shove and lose our equity falls 8.75%.

Estimate on villans range something like top 12.5% (44+, kj+, a9+), we are 68/32 against that range.

(.68*20) + (.32*8.75)=13.6+2.8= 16.4%

Ugh looks like a -.9% move. This is assuming we have no fold equity.


In conclusion it may well be fold but if we have any fold equity it gets very close, consider myself surprised.

is the equity calc that easy? what is chip leaders current equity given that the max is 20% but he holds 50% of chips?


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: Longy on July 16, 2008, 06:31:10 PM
              1st       2nd      3rd     4th     5th    6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Totals
            100.000
Player 1  10.000 05.589 02.787 01.176 00.378 - - - - -                  19.929
Player 2  01.800 02.628 03.268 03.775 04.189 - - - - -                  15.660
Player 3  01.800 02.628 03.268 03.775 04.189 - - - - -                  15.660
Player 4  01.400 02.077 02.697 03.348 04.229 - - - - -                  13.751
Player 5  02.600 03.665 04.067 03.953 03.399 - - - - -                  17.683
Player 6  02.400 03.414 03.914 03.973 03.616 - - - - -                  17.317
Player 7  - - - - - - - - - - -
Player 8  - - - - - - - - - - -
Player 9  - - - - - - - - - - -
Player 10  - - - - - - - - - - -
Totals 10000 20.000 20.000 20.000 20.000 20.000 - - - - - 100.000


Equities before the hand, worked out based on chip stacks, likelihood of finishing in each position based on equal ability.

Im using this http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx and pokerstove for hand vs hand.




Title: Re: double your money
Post by: boldie on July 16, 2008, 07:19:51 PM
U'm rather surprised that this would be a call. Like someone said (Mosk I think) this is effectively a sattelite bubble situation, you have some people shorter than you and one of them has now decided to only leave themselves with 4BBs after flatcalling this and the other also has 4BBs left if there is no more action in the hand. One of them is likely to be very short or out...in fact, unless they split the pot that is what will happen.

I fold 100% of the time here.


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: cambo on July 17, 2008, 02:19:46 PM
the games are great i only play the 6 max ones tho , as tighty says they are just sooooooooo boring they are good for a spin up if youve had a bad run or after a  cash out. the standard barely changes from £10-£100


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: boldie on July 17, 2008, 02:22:12 PM
Of course they are boring, they're Sit and Go's...but if Blonde would have these I doubt I'd ever touch an MTT again...build up bankroll and multi table the 100£ double your money things all day :)


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: vegaslover on July 19, 2008, 10:08:36 PM
laddies do them too.
The crypto ones becomes crapshoots fairly quick.
The laddies ones have more structure, and more stupid players who get a big stack and that donk it off with marginals.

This one player dependant for me. Equity states it's a fold most of the time, but if these players push light I will likely set them in, depending on how active the big stack is.


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: Colchester Kev on July 19, 2008, 10:42:50 PM
Of course they are boring, they're Sit and Go's...but if Blonde would have these I doubt I'd ever touch an MTT again...build up bankroll and multi table the 100£ double your money things all day :)

being looked at ;)


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: boldie on July 19, 2008, 11:05:55 PM
Of course they are boring, they're Sit and Go's...but if Blonde would have these I doubt I'd ever touch an MTT again...build up bankroll and multi table the 100£ double your money things all day :)

being looked at ;)

Thanks mate...maybe I can even find a table where I can beat 5 players ...at the 5$ level maybe.


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: Colchester Kev on July 19, 2008, 11:21:34 PM
Of course they are boring, they're Sit and Go's...but if Blonde would have these I doubt I'd ever touch an MTT again...build up bankroll and multi table the 100£ double your money things all day :)

being looked at ;)

Thanks mate...maybe I can even find a table where I can beat 5 players ...at the 5$ level maybe.

try 6 seaters, you only have to beat 3 ;)


Title: Re: double your money
Post by: LuckyLloyd on July 20, 2008, 01:58:24 AM
FOLDFOLDFOLDFOLD

by the way, the idea of grinding double your money STTs sounds highly demoralizing.