blonde poker forum

Reading the Scotsman today and on the front page is the graph showing the fall in HBOS shares over the past year. 75% from a high of 10.8 down to 2.54 (ish).

I'm not much of a wizkid when it comes to shares but surely the company is now undervalued and the shares should go up? The shares are now also low enough for a take over to be realistic (or atleast an attempt at one).I would expect the shares to shoot up again relatively soon (within a year)
Anyone disagree that this is the time to lump onto HBOS?

Only if they get shot of those feckin irritating adverts.. they do my nut in!

***Waits for Tightys opinion***

**** trying not to give an opinion *****

investing in any shares in these uncertain times I would avoid.

***** still trying ******

Was rather hoping for one from your goodself Tighty.

Been wondering the same myself but have held off buying any.   I'm not the best at working out who's going to do well or not.  You'd have though it was a great time to buy but  I did this with Party (obv unrelated) thinking they couldn't get any worse........... gg Party wp, ul.

We all await the words of the wise one :)

My guess is that they're undervalued but that they could fall even further.

Surely the only truly reliable, 100% guaranteed effective investment plan at present are the staking boards.

Maybe so but if you can hold on to them for a while and don't put your entire savings on them I can not help but see them go up again.

I am awaiting words of the wise one on this one though as I'm really interested to see what he makes of it.

ok, sigh


some very general thoughts


- we're in my opinion in the early-mid stages of a bear market.

- why? the economic news is getting worse. I think a recession is here-ish. Pain is yet to come from personal and corporate bankruptcies, and credit card problems given high levels of borrowing

- so long long long term you may be right, markets will turn. However its probably too early

- HBOS is an aggressive bank. It has high market shares in aggressive lending areas such as self certificated mortgages, unsecured lending etc etc.. its a comparatively new entrant to its markets during a big growth phase when economies were storming..its not a big leap of faith to suggest it may suffer more from bad debts than some more conservative competitors

- However it did raise capital from its shareholders in the last year. This is good long term but short term hangs over the share price...buyers are full up after the rights issue


Personally I would steer clear. You're right, the "value" is far better than it was in basic share price terms but the forecasting of the next two years is really tricky.

Wait it out

I would particularly avoid Barclays (thinnest capital ratios of the lot).

I might punt on smaller building societies with real risk captial (ie if you lose it its not the end of the world for you)

****still trying****


failed.

Thanks for that mate

Thank you Oracle.

What about QQ though?  Worth investing in?

Tightend to create the Blonde Investment Club

Who's QQ?

QQ? Did they go bust ages ago?..Folded in 2004, I believe.

Good idea, lets get a group of us to stay stick in £25-50 per mnth, then if we have say 15-20 of us its a nice little amount each mnth that we can look at investing in different shares or whatever, any profits we can look at re-investing / staking or maybe a little to charity and if we dont make anything we hav'nt done to much each.

Not a bad idea at all....

what you reckon then Tighty you wanna be our "leader" if it's of interest to a few blondes ?

maybe, of course.

Investment clubs are fine in principle. I'd need someone else to do the legwork though, I'm a bit pulled out.

I'd want collective decisions too, I don't want any potential recriminations for duff investments etc

of course it would have to be a group decision but it's nice to have someone with a good idea in the chair. I would be happy to help with any leg work with the right direction.

Any other blondes up for this ?
 when i get chance ill start a thread for any interested people

Some of us have started an Blonde investment club already.

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=35065.0

im already in that one

I don't mind helping out, I have a bit of free time for 'stuff'

For the investment clubs I've seen before, people put forward various proposals each month as a suggestion to invest in, then it's voted on and the majority gets acted on.  I guess setting up (another) seperate child board would be the thing to do (maybe an idea to have it private).

Anyway, I'm obviously up for it and am willing to help out.

I'd suggest a separate forum, private access and completely separate.  A single thread on here for general updates, news and for people who want to get involved to ask questions, etc.

I don't it takes too much time to get a basic, simple forum up and running.  It's only when it's a very busy and complicated place like blonde when it gets a bit more tricky.

Going back to the original question, I would say that a year is a bad time period for holding this investment, at the moment I (in my unqualified assesment) would either buy it as a gamble over a 1 month time frame as it could easliy go up or down 10% on any particular day.  As long as you buy it as a gamble and not an investmenet then this could work.

Otherwise I would "dollar cost average" into various bank stocks over the next year or so as either in 10 years time they will be up a lot or the world emonomy is so shot we may as well live in caves anyway.

If Tighty is up for it I'm in.

love to be involved, happy to volunteer to do stuff

http://www.fool.co.uk/Investing/guides/Investment-Clubs-Part-I.aspx (http://www.fool.co.uk/Investing/guides/Investment-Clubs-Part-I.aspx)

I would love to be involved too and happy to be a working member and undertake my fair share of research.

Spent a year day trading a while back so have some experience

And if he's to busy then am still definitly up for it. I agree with what kinboshi was saying though would be sensible to do that.Seems like there's a lot of interest in this who wants to volunteer to get the ball rolling?

ive never done anything in shares but when i get in tonight ill set up a thread and get a general idea of who would be interested and at what £ level people would it to be at.

Im deffo up for it, as tighty knows, I have already had a chat or 2 in the past for some advice which i have been grateful of, so yes count me in, and any admin stuff that needs doing, ditched being secretary of local football a while ago, now miss it.. doh

Kins idea good as well, seperate forum probably the way forward..

I think of all the banks RBS is the biggest value at the mo.
Share price £1.70 ish, down from £6 when they did their 3 for 1 split.

RBS were the first to come to market for their rights issue to raise capital. They got stick for that but the pain is behind them for that.

The market thinks they have taken a huge gamble with ABN, and there is no doubt they over paid somewhat, but they have proven they have the ability to manage a take over of huge size as they did a fantastic job with Nat West.

The market is in a mess at the moment and there is huge un certainty to come, but it is a rock solid blue chip company and will recover in time there is no question. God knows how long the current credit crisis and general terrible market conditions will last though.

What RBS really need to do is get rid of Fred Goodwin their CEO. The market cant stand him and their shares have underperformed for years purely because he is in charge.

Nice one  :)up

Sounds like a good idea, I'd be interested. Can put in some hours if I can offer anything to the group too.

A couple of weeks back i was convinced that we had got to the bargain bucket prices for banking shares and made an investment, which promptly sunk further as I had missed the bottom. Earlier this week again I am convinced and make a further investment in banking shares. Thankfully the market shows a glimmer of hope, and on paper I am now up between the two deals. Hopefully we have now seen the bottom, but who knows what fun lies ahead?
Usual warning, don't invest/gamble what you can't afford, don't put all your eggs in one basket etc. Of course I have ignored these warnings and I am in fingers crossed territory.  :D

 ;bump;

well thay have closed of part of the company The Mortgage Buisness (tmb) today and made 425 people redundant.

"The FTSE 100 index of leading UK shares was down 271 points, or 5%, at 5145.3 by midday. Banking shares have been particularly badly affected with HBOS down almost 30%."

Shorting time!

No way I'd buy a regular stock at the mo, market defo aint seen the worst of it yet.
Am keeping a close eye on bhi slb hal drq and wft at the mo, oil often a good refuge in general bear market imho.
In fact if slb finds 75 I'm probably back in, sell off at 100 again.
Just my opinion, of course.

Blatant brag IMO

But very well called indeed...I can't believe how big a mess the banking sector is in in the States (and now the UK)

Used to work for the HBOS and as part of the reward package we got free shares- I sold mine when they were at a peak of £11- some decided to hold on to them- betthey're regretting that decision now.....

source please?

HBOS tanks another 20% today.

EDIT - make that 26%, another 6% gone in ten minutes.

down 30 now.

Around this time last year it almost touched 1000, it's a huge drop they've taken. Long term shorting FTW!

Ouch

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HBOS.L&t=6m

Check the volumes :(

Sentiment is a bitch.

but, they are the riskiest of the UK banks

their expansion strategy in 2002-07 has left them with a lot of aggressive loans

Not saying there will be a problem, but if there is its at HBOS and Barclays first of the UK biggies

I don't know a lot about this, but would this not be the time to buy loads of these shares?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7620483.stm

So its a lump on?

too late, the shares have moved

if the deal happens, huge relief, if not, huge drama

take your pick

Where do i get the best up to date prices?

reuters, bbc business etc..usually slight delays

So we could gamble that the deal will fall through and short HBOS at it's current level?

That would be a risky gamble

Fun though :)

This might be a daft question, but I have a lot of £ in HBOS accounts and what would happen to it if HBOS went down?

Im thinking of buying about 10k worth of these shares, whats the worst that can happen?

Protected by the Bank of England's depositors scheme, up to a point

"UK banks are required to be members of, and to contribute to, a deposit protection scheme. This entitles depositors with a failed institution to receive 90% of their protected deposits, subject to a maximum payment to any depositor of £18,000 ."


As per NRK though, highly unlikely the bank of england would get it that far (Lehmans in the US isn't a retail bank)

Shorter Answer:  It won't

They go bust after losing too much money, the government takes them over, you get next to nothing.
Very unlikely though.
In my opinion , the shares will rebound after a merger or when the gloom wears off.

Shares are bouncing now - HBOS up 8% today.

However, Lloyds TSB are up 10%, which shows that people think they're going to get a bit of a bargain.

Move to a proper bank HSBC FTW ;)

If this merger goes through would it happen in the next few days?  Im thinkin of moving some money out to different institutions but think it might be too late.

Unless you've got ££££££ in there your money will be ok (and even then it's a tiny risk)

You only have to worry if you work for HBOS, because there's a good chance you won't be needed any more.

I have more than the amount thats guarenteed by the FSA which is what's worrying, I've opened a savings acc with a different bank so will shift some there ASAP.

[X] Blatant 'I ain't poor' post IMO

Lol well its natural to be worried when you wake up and their share price is 80 odd pence.

What is the amount that's guaranteed?

and by moving your money out like thousands of others, the prophecy that they are doomed becomes self fulfilling, as the liquidity goes up in smoke.

£35K mole. 

I totally agree with you Laz, and if nobody panicked in situations like this there would be no problem, but would you take the risk?

Bank of England and the government wouldn't let it go under - no risk

risk is minimal imo, as long as everyone keeps their money with them.

cant remember now prob one of the emails i get at work everyday

They probably wont but I doubt i'd take the risk.

Whats the best way to buy these shares? sorry for being so naive but i am really interested as i think this looks like buying money

Just put an order in for £100k HBOS, wish me luck

















http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=36959.0

Barclays quite good for UK stocks. http://www.stockbrokers.barclays.co.uk/

I have had enough of all these scary bank stories, can't trust any of them any more. Have withdrawn all my savings herewith and deposited them into my UB account.

Also let's not forget the bank employees, the real victims in all of this. How do they cope?

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txDWRR5WRFQ

rotflmfao..that was good.

Heard a great interview on the radio with a manager at Lehmans in the UK yesterday he said "We'll be fine, we are managers and we'll always find something new in Finance...it's the footsoldiers that you should feel sorry for."

Oh my...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7622180.stm

Lloyds TSB is to merge with HBOS, creating a banking giant which will hold a third of the UK's savings and mortgage market.
Both firms' boards have agreed to a deal, at a price of 232p per HBOS share following talks.
The deal should calm uncertainty about the strength of Halifax-Bank of Scotland after a run on its shares.
The deal is set to be formally announced on Thursday morning, says BBC business editor Robert Peston.
The talks between the two banks were first reported by the BBC earlier on Wednesday.

Sandy

it has been described in some parts of the press as a shotgun marriage.What a steal for Lloyds either w
ay

and completely unnecessary imho.

i fail to see what was wrong with the business. i think these traders who "short" the price have got a lot to answer for. and who is to say they wont turn their guns on LTSB/HBOS next ?

it is my view that a few, well placed individuals are getting obscenely rich on the back of this so called credit crunch, and taking advantage of the lack of confidence to drive the prices down. Since time began news of banks failing has been the greatest self fulfilling prophecy ever.

The new bank will have about a third of Britain's mortgages - they can do whatever they want because that could never, ever fail

yep...a few years ago they would have put a halt to this but now the govt won't object to this (approves it actually) as not doing it would destabilise the economy even more...so...let's have the banks make a mess of things and then give them a monopoly in return.

Brilliant. This is a ridiculous merger to allow to go ahead and some day this will come back and bite the consumers in the arse...then what?

FSA clamps down on short-selling (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7624012.stm)

yes, this made me lol very very hard. It does not to solve the underlying problem IMO. Would love to hear Tighty's view on this one.

F. me
How much further can thes banker sector drop ffs !!

HBOS down ANOTHER 20% today to 160p

RBS down 20% aswell today to 148p.
I used to work at RBS so know more about them than HBOS but 18 months ago these shares were trading at £8

The economic conditions are just unbelieveably bad at the mo.

quote.yahoo.com

Ooops.

Bottom falling out of market.

dont care, got all my money tied up in pork bellies and frozen orange juice.

I have invested in RBS today (bottomish of market hopefully), so watch them crash out of site.  :D

this is nowhere near the bottom

we need to see non-financial bankruptcies first, and bad debts to the banks from that


good luck though!

Going by the headlines this morning think you are right.  :(

How much you get em for?

(http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/1y/r/rbs.l)

Markets always overreact to this kind of thing tho...

Better than HBOS though. Short would have been a good play then :(

Please I implore you to help a Blonde in need:

www.justgiving.com/Indyballsedupbigtime

Thanks
 ;)

PS Anyone have the phone number for Relate.  ;whistle;

I have no idea about shares but was working for a bloke today and he was buying shares in dtz they are very low at the moment 77p i think he said.
Anyone have any ideas if its worth a dabble? He thinks so.

Lost 20% of its value today so I guess its outperforming the market! :)

This cracked me...seriously funny

ok ok off topic did the intrest rate get cut this week? if so by what...

1/2%

So current share prices

RBS 44.70p
LloydsTSB £1.49

So what's the thought now, is this the bottom or more to go?  :dontask:

do you think it would be wise to buy shares in llloyds at this time?

All the part nationalised banks (RBOS etc) are going to be lousy investments for a long time, possibly decades. Not being run for you now, being run for the government. Lower dividends, less commercial decisions. Horrible for investors

Lloyds TSB will be a better investment sooner, but on an 18 month view the enormous exposure to UK housing and HBOS' poor lending makes it a poor proposition at the moment

and we still ahven't seen non financial bankruptcies

avoid, still. In my opinion.

Ok thanks, will keep an eye on it as a chance of bargains ahead. every time I think we have reached the bottom it drops again.
I am still confident that the ones I have bought will turn around in the end and can wait years for the return, so will watch this space.

If my bank goes tits up, does my overdraft get written off ?

No, it's down to the customers like you that have got banks in to this mess!  ;whistle;

only if all the banks go bust, but then tobacco becomes the new currency.

I'm putting everything I have into fags.

I've heard Spurs would be a good investment

No, seriously I have :D

Must be the way forward ... after all, Flushy is NEVER skint ;)

completely agree

As a mere novice (excuse me using Mere's handle), I wonder if anyone who has received their HBOS voting papers can advise me.  What advice would you give on for or against the Scheme in laymen's terms and is anyone voting.

I have had shares in a few main company's for many years but completely ignorant on the complexities of takeovers, I just look forward to my dividends.

Trouble is that there are no real alternatives on the table apart maybe form nationalizing HBOS, but wouldn't worry too much as it is more likely that the institutional shareholders will be the votes that count.

As for me, I lumped on LloydsTSB yesterday at 1.51. Chasing losses, who me?  ;whistle;

not enough love for this

I should have listened. FML that is all.
 ;madasahatstand;

In the current climate, does anyone thing debt collection agencies would be a prudent investment?

Bad news day today.
PS I have bought more. ;D

I claim a comprehensive victory.

I claim  a comprehensive chuckle  rotflmfao rotflmfao

Never in doubt.  ;)

Full nationalisation ahead?

if things don't pick up on a six month view, absolutely

I'd say it was currently odds-on

I think from the press that all the bad news is out now as there would be no point holding any more back, but who knows.

+EV to sell ur shares and stake fergus instead

:D

£1.04

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XW0Y4s4GScw

I know it has taken over a year, but now well in profit.
 ;yippee;

wiiiiiii...always play the long game :)