blonde poker forum

Following on from suprise packages in Russian boxes and the fascination with Tikays advancing years........

Had an interesting discussion at lunch today and wondered if anyone would care to have a stab at this puzzle? (just thought Tikay may be interested in the answer)

At what age will anyone be a favourite not to see their next birthday?

(Lots of disagreement on this one).

77

AK

all-in

actaully my forumal was off on current statics its 86 but that is liable to go up each year as they reckon every decade now adds 3 years to a persons life expectancy

as my dad always says. "" Son if you get to 3 score and ten then anything else is a bonus "

so i wil go for 70

So when you hit your 86th birthday you are saying that it is more likely that you will not see 87 than it is to see it ?

Or in other words you are saying there are at least twice as many 86 year olds in the world than there are 87 years olds and upwards. Don't think that can be right do you?

And The Camel wantsa spread on how long he is going to live ie how many years he has left in him.

So now its a two part question.

a) At what age are you a favourite not to see your next birthday, and,

b) How many years has The Camel got left in him?

Harry, what odds can I get to see my 45th Birthday? I'll have a tenner if it's better than evens.

harry depends where you live if it paisley your lucky if there is 10 guys over 80 with a working heart that isnt clogged up with fat

PMSL ironside i think im the oldest in the town and im only thirty:~{  ishhhhh LOL

I think there is a sort of trick in this question. There cannot be ANY age at which you are favoirite NOT to see another year.

Trying to get my head round this, but I'm sure there's a cute answer somewhere.

But The Camel did tell me a weird story last night. Every time young Jake sees Keith with his shirt off, he wants feeding.......

I'll take that at any odds, you'll never see that birthday again.

Robert, you are such a clever man....why did you wear that jumper 8)

I'm kidding m8

I am so hurt

camel hasn't got long left once his backers cop hold of him  :D
and erm....teenage??

[[/quote]

So when you hit your 86th birthday you are saying that it is more likely that you will not see 87 than it is to see it ?

Or in other words you are saying there are at least twice as many 86 year olds in the world than there are 87 years olds and upwards. Don't think that can be right do you?

[/quote]

Sorry meant to say: There are at least twice as many 86 year olds as there are 87 year olds (and not and upwards).

Guess I am suffering from senescence......

there only needs to be the same amount +1 aged 86 than 87+s to mean your favourite to die that year

sorry lets say there is 1001 people ageed 86 there needs to be 500 aged 87+ for 86 to mean your favourite to die that year i hope that clarifies it

I have cracked it. There is NO AGE at which you are favourite NOT to see your next birthday. You are ALWAYS odds-on, & thus favourite, to see your next birthday. Thought it was a "cleverly phrased question", & I was right.

Come on Mr D, you need to do better than that.

Next!

tikay is the doc tells me i have 3 months to live the day after my next birthday i would be odds on not to see another birthday

Well, "the day after" is a late bet, and would be voided.

And Iron's scenario, God forbid, could happen at ANY age, not any given, specific, age.

Send me the prize please Harry.

ok tikay there is 5 people aged 106 in the world but only 2 aged 107+ so at age 106 you would odds on to die

I would say that if you lived to 106 you wouldnt be odds against you living to 107. As the oldest person ever died at 119 (from memory or maybe I just made it up??) I would say 119 is the age you would be odds on to not see your next birthday as nobody else ever has. The argument about 5 106yr olds and only 2 107 yr olds doesnt work for me as maybe 33 107 yr olds got killed yesterday in a freak bungy jumping record attempt.

wasnt me sir honest i thought the rope was short enough but kiv forgot to atach it to the tower as he was bust eating a steak and sydney pie

119 is correct - there was an unconfirmed 123 as well, but 119 is the record.

Just SEND ME THE PRIZE........

Tikay you haven't won mate. This isn't a pure maths question its a statistical question. There will be an age somewhere in medical books/statistics where you are less than 50% to see your next brithday. There will be an answer somewhere if you do the research but to be honest I just cant be arsed.

SEND ME THE PRIZE........

did he tell you the prize was a poker lesson of ariston and ironside

No it isn't. There is someone alive who is 130

Yeah, but Tikay is a one off  :D

Is the answer, the day after you get hit by a bus???

Personally I don't know the answer but have heard a very convincing argument that you are never a favourite to die before your next birthday but if there were an answer then it would have to be (most likely) the oldest person ever to have lived in the world.

Far more interesting to offer a spread on The Camel as he claims that his wife's going to kill him if he doesn't live to see Jake's 30th birthday.

Is the camel the same bloke as as in the picture of a werewolf on the updates forum??

That's him.......

Sponsored by Gillette

I am awaiting the day the doctor tells me to give up smoking drinking and sex if I want to see my next birthday...my answer would simply be whats the point in living without pleasures?

I'm ok, I would only have to give up smoking and drinking :)

Do you remember that beer advert "it's what your right arms for"?

Is that whay you gave up sex Kev?

robert... I havent given up sex voluntarily  :D

Ps. I like the way that you like to keep your ex lovers close .... you have them made into dodgy jumpers :)

LOL

Ou have no taste Kiv, that's a great jumper