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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: T_Mar on August 20, 2008, 03:24:46 PM



Title: Strong or weak?
Post by: T_Mar on August 20, 2008, 03:24:46 PM
Stars $50 80k GTD

Blinds 400/200/50 9 handed

UTG+2 (~10k) raises to 1k
UTG+3 (~10.5k) Jams

Pot is ~12.5k

I have ~24k

Am trying to work out what I need to call with here... or put another way, what is the villians shoving range here ??  He's shoving ~26bb to win ~5 with players still behind him...Is this generally strong or weak?? Or is he strong trying to look weak lol

Can we rule out AA/KK ?? Whats the worst he shows up with??

Player is unknown and hasn't done anything out of the ordinary since I been at the table

Ta


Title: Re: Strong or weak?
Post by: Suited_Jock on August 20, 2008, 03:38:34 PM
What has our read been on UTG+2 has he been opening repeatedly / lightly? 

I don't think we can rule out AA/KK as I've seen it happen a few times by crazy folk, however it is unlikely. I guess range would be 77+/AQ/AK if he's not too out of line..


Title: Re: Strong or weak?
Post by: T_Mar on August 20, 2008, 03:54:13 PM
What has our read been on UTG+2 has he been opening repeatedly / lightly? 

I don't think we can rule out AA/KK as I've seen it happen a few times by crazy folk, however it is unlikely. I guess range would be 77+/AQ/AK if he's not too out of line..


Couldn't say UTG+2 has been over active although along with most at the table, now antes are in play he is looking to keep afloat.. Nothing to say his opening range is very tight here, If I call then he can only really over call with KK/AA I would of thought which although possible didn't seem likely at the time for some reason.. although that may be wrong?


Title: Re: Strong or weak?
Post by: Suited_Jock on August 20, 2008, 04:02:39 PM
What has our read been on UTG+2 has he been opening repeatedly / lightly? 

I don't think we can rule out AA/KK as I've seen it happen a few times by crazy folk, however it is unlikely. I guess range would be 77+/AQ/AK if he's not too out of line..


Couldn't say UTG+2 has been over active although along with most at the table, now antes are in play he is looking to keep afloat.. Nothing to say his opening range is very tight here, If I call then he can only really over call with KK/AA I would of thought which although possible didn't seem likely at the time for some reason.. although that may be wrong?

Yer I would say so.. the reason I ask would be what read UTG+3 has on UTG+2 that may give us info on what is making him take this line and suitably adjust UTG3's range.


Title: Re: Strong or weak?
Post by: MC on August 20, 2008, 04:09:15 PM
I'd say his range is something 55s-99s and AJ/AQ. Hard to say cos of lack of info, but surely can rule out QQ-AA for sure.


I'd need TT+ or AQ/AK here to consider calling.



Title: Re: Strong or weak?
Post by: DungBeetle on August 20, 2008, 04:31:54 PM
I see people do this quite often with AK, because they don't like committing 30% of their stack (with the re-raise) and then not knowing what to do when they miss the flop.


Title: Re: Strong or weak?
Post by: T_Mar on August 21, 2008, 09:25:41 AM
OK so easy call with with JJ then?


Title: Re: Strong or weak?
Post by: Suited_Jock on August 21, 2008, 01:34:24 PM
yup


Title: Re: Strong or weak?
Post by: StuartHopkin on August 21, 2008, 02:23:27 PM
I think im folding here? Is that really bad?

You have people behind you? You have the original raiser also. And there is a fair chance your going to be racing even if you manage to get heads up with UTG+3.

Surely there are better spots to get almost half your stack in.



Title: Re: Strong or weak?
Post by: T_Mar on August 21, 2008, 02:35:42 PM
I think im folding here? Is that really bad?

You have people behind you? You have the original raiser also. And there is a fair chance your going to be racing even if you manage to get heads up with UTG+3.
Surely there are better spots to get almost half your stack in.



If his cards were faceup and I could have seen he had AK I would snap call... Just not sure if QQ-AA playes this way.. Its looks weak (ish) to me but I'm not sure?? 


Title: Re: Strong or weak?
Post by: MANTIS01 on August 21, 2008, 02:38:20 PM
I think im folding here? Is that really bad?

You have people behind you? You have the original raiser also. And there is a fair chance your going to be racing even if you manage to get heads up with UTG+3.

Surely there are better spots to get almost half your stack in.

Agree with that. You are struggling to be ahead of the original raiser in the first place. And clearly you're losing the 1k sidepot flip vs UTG+3's A-K.


Title: Re: Strong or weak?
Post by: T_Mar on August 21, 2008, 02:38:47 PM
Fair point about players behind and the orignal raiser, but they going to need huge hands (qq probs fold?) to get involved if I call so that would be ul and one of those things


Title: Re: Strong or weak?
Post by: MANTIS01 on August 21, 2008, 02:56:53 PM
Original raiser doesn't look like he's raising to fold. 1k out of 10k ep seems to want action imo. All-in man has A-K almost everytime. We have nothing invested in this pot and the conditions don't seem favourable to call away half our stack.