blonde poker forum

New to this site. Very impressed Thought I'd make a contribution.

Playing at Manchester APAT last year had the following 3 hands - wonder what you would have done. Some of the stack sizes other detail may not be absolutely accurate but my best recollection.

200 entrants. Entry fee £75 Prize structure flat. 1st £4k? 2nd £2.5k ? 3rd £1,250, ? 4th - 9th £700 ,   10th - 20th £400.

Hand 1
about 4th level. Folded to mid position player (stack size approx 80 blinds - average 60 blinds ) raise to 4 blinds - has been playing solidly. Folded to me (stack size 40 blinds - been playing tight not shown many hands - recently lost showdown - 30% of stack with 2 pair against straight) on cutoff pick up QQ  re raise to 10 blinds. Folded to raiser who goes all in. Call or fold ?

Hand 2 

Early 2nd day - 23 people still in. I ( stack size 20 blinds - average stack. Still playing fairly tight - made some plays but only 1 seen - all in K2 with 6 blinds called by mid afternoon previous day - made straight on river. ) picked up QQ again mid position - raised to 4 blinds. Folded to cutoff (cant remember his playing type - 14 blinds) went all in. Folded to me. Call or fold ?

Hand 3

Just 3 hand later now down to bubble - 2 stacks less than me - I have 6 blinds (you can guess what i did in hand 2 !) . I pick up  you,ve guessed it QQ UTG. Most are playing tight except for the player on the BB ( about 25 blinds average stack) who has been very loose pre flop. I would expect him to call with 50 % of hands.  Raise, call or fold ?

As there are 3 hands (hope this is allowed!) perhaps you can summarise you response with e.g Call/fold/raise before going into detail for reasons.       
 

Hand 1 - call.  I assume you folded here as there wouldn't be a hand 2 and if you shoved and won there's no point in you posting it, but if I was putting in 25% of my stack I'm calling the rest to a shove.

Hand 2 - call again, his range with only 14 blinds left is wider than the KK and AA that beat you.

Hand 3 - I don't think I'm ever folding queens with only 6 big blinds left even if I am on the bubble.

Hand 1, I call but can see the argument for the fold here..they go in for me. QQ, you're only behind to AA/KK and his range is surely wider than that? (Bring in tens, jacks, AQ,AK?..asking as you were at the table and I wasn't) You've already put in 25% of your chips...now the rest go in.

Hand 2, good call..with 20bbs I don't fold Queens..

Hand 3..shove, you only have 6 BBs, people expect you to shove with a wide range..so let them think they are ahead.

1-I probably call but argument for folding(if I was a nit)

2-call

3-obv raise-why would you fold this ever???(unless the cashing means a lot to you- but for an entry fee of £75 to win £400????)

The only reason I folded hand 3 was the very flat structure of the prize money . I would have to have been at least 3rd to be significantly above £400. For best return surely fold is the right move ?

i aint folding none of them

not in an apat event

maybe in the wsop when the bubble is worth $10000+

Hand 1

I folded here because in my opinion his likely range is AA and KK. AK always possible because of his bigger stack but I felt unlikely from his previous play. He showed me AA.

Hand 2

Clear call for me. Unfortunately he had KK and I didnt get my Q. on the board.

Hand 3

I folded because of the very flat structure and the fish in BB. I would have had to come at least 3rd to have significantly more prize money that $400. I folded and the bubble burst next hand. Finished in 14th. 

I get it in every hand and im happy about it. QQ is very big hand in all these situations.

You don't have enough information to fold Queens in any of these spots

To fold Queens you have to be pretty damn sure they have AA or KK. QQ is 58% against AK which you have to take as too much chance they might have AQ or worse.

Definitely calling the first two times...and obviously have to shove the latter.

I don't think I'd consider folding 66s UTG with six big blinds left...this is a terrible fold even in a bubble situation.

I don't have much to add (call, call, shove)

Hand 3 has to be a shove, and you'd love a call as you really don't mind taking 70:30 on the chance of a double-up.

Prospect of finishing on the bubble is to be largely ignored because as you say, the top 3 spots are where the money is.

[/b]


whoa there, this is not good. i could poss understand something like 88/99 maybe as u are so close to (only) doubling ur money due to their vulnerability but QQ is a monster. Terrible fold im afraid boss.

hand one, rring to 10bb out of your 40bb stack and folding to a shove is a criminal offence. insta-call.....not coz ur miles ahead of his range, but because u thought about what to do if he shoved.

hand 2, hope u snapped.

As it stands I'm not folding any of them.

On the first one I would be inclined to fold - but I wouldn't because of the rr to 10xbb. If I'd played it I'd have flat called the raise, either to hide a flopped monster, to bet out if I'm probably ahead or to fold if I think I'm behind and only lose 4xbb.

This might get me knocked out of a few pots that I should be winning, that's my rock-like tendencies coming to the fore - but even I'm not rock enough to fold after committing a quarter of my stack pre-flop with QQ.

hand 1 I prefer flatting pre if it is going to be a tough decision if he shoves.  if you're 3 betting with the intention of folding you might as well have 62o here because he will seldom flat call you.  Live I think flatting is best after he 4x's it

hand 2 3x pre, now call a shove.  don't fold 66+ getting 2/1

hand 3 easy shove cos you dont hate money

Hand 3
Everybody has said shove and I respect your more experienced advice. Sorry to be a pain but I decide to do some maths which I think proves you right and me wrong. I honestly though with such a flat structure it cant be right to shove. Though I would say the the expected increase in return is very marginal, and whilst the judgements are thought through, they are by nature subjective and open to errors. Those who like to do a bit of maths I would appreciate constructive criticism.

If fold QQ expected return :
1st - 3rd average £2583 x (say) 5% = £129
4th - 10th £700 x (say) 20% = £140
11th - 20th £400 x (say) 65%  = £260
Out on bubble  £0 x 10%    =     £0
Total expected return =          £529.


If shove then if get called with just 1 caller (probably BB) I think the best estimate is you'll be out 30 % of the time, plus even if you win hand - very small chance you will still go out on bubble (say 2%), So remaining 68% divided amongst placings.

So expected return if you shove and get called may be:
1st - 3rd £2583 x 8% (remember even if you win hand you are still less than average stack) = £206
4th - 10th £700 x  (say) 20% = £140
11th - 20th £400 x (say) 40% = £160
Out on bubble       (say) 32%   = £0
Total                                  = £506

If shove and all fold I am up to 7.5 blinds and the expected return may be as follows
1st - 3rd average £2583 x (say) 7% = £181
4th - 10th £700 x (say) 25% = £175
11th - 20th £400 x (say) 60%  = £240
Out on bubble  £0 x 8%    =     £0
Total                              =  £596

So if you shove and everybody folds ( 40% chance in my opinion- see intro notes) you gain £596-£529 = £67.
If shove and called (60%) expected return reduced by £529 - £506 = £23.
Total increase in expected return for shove is (40% x £67) - (60% x £23 ) = £13.

Thanks guys. I'm pushing next time in similar position. Anybody still awake would appreciate comment

Am on tilt now

someone icm this please. i hate math. longy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

lol

aesropaghidgjhopfjhadgopsmn

I think we defo need Longy for this one.
fwiw Equity after folding looks high, as does equity after uncalled push.

Folding QQ cost you more than £13 here.



Trouble with this math is so much depends on getting probability of finishing in each place right, particulary the top spots.

If the % of finishing top 3 from 6BBs is 4% instead of 5% that's £25 off your equity from folding straight away.

tbh, I think even 4% is generous as after bubble is cracked, you have no time to wait for a decent spot, and will be lucky to flip for your first double-up.

Interestingly, you have it at 7% to podium from 7.5BBs, and 8% from 12.5BBs.

Why do you value the extra 1.5BBs as increasing your podium chances by 2%, yet 6.5BBs extra only gets 3%?

 

Ugh this looks time consuming, fortunately i am good at wasting time.

OP would need to give me stack sizes of the whole table, or at least avg stack at the time. To do a full icm analysis, which are a pain in the arse in MTTs, due to the amount of variables.

Fwiw ICM falls down in alot of MTT situations especially cos of these variables and even in a flat structure, I would just take cEV spots just about all the time. On the bubble just turn down marginal spots, which only have a small +cEV.

QQ is far from marginal here and not shoving is a massive mistake imo. If op had something like 55 here it would be more interesting.

Also ICM doesn't approximate the fact you lose a good % of your stack in the blinds next 2 hands, which in sng situations i will often take -$ev shoves utg.
I think Charlies attempt at the Maths is not a bad effort, but i think he has this wrong at the end. He should compare the two shoving figures first. To work out how much on avg is gained by shoving.

So everyone fold 596* 60% = £357.6
Someone calls 506 * 40% =  £202.4

Total = £560 = Expectation after shoving then compare the difference with open folding.

£560-£529 = £31

So in conclusion using Charlies rough assumptions (which seem ok to me), we gain £31 by shoving. £31 is quite alot to burn in £75 tourney imo.

Thanks Longy. Any advice on where I can find out more about ICM etc ? I have only read Harrington's books so far but quite like the maths angle.

By the way I may be wrong but think my calcs. were right. Doing it your way shouldn't the calc be:

Everyone fold 596 *40% ( not 60%)= £238.40
Someone calls 506 * 60% (not 40%) = £303.60
Total =                              £542.00

Increase in expected return = £542 - £529 = £13 .

Do you agree ?

Aaah misread got the 60% and 40% the wrong way round. Would be surprised if you get called more than it folds around given your image but that is one of many variables.

But yeah given your variables, you are right.

As for ICM, as a sng player i use sngwiz but for mtts there is no real need for it. I would only use icm once you get to the final table. Here is a free icm calc you need to put in structure and stacks.

http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx

The main place where ICM was conceived is STTF(Single table tournament forum) on 2p2 mainly by a poster called Eastbay who also invented sngpt.