blonde poker forum

Earyish stages of a MTT (live) 8 handed tables...

Starting chips 10k
Blinds 50/100

You have about 11k in chips,  SB and BB both on about 9K

You are on the button and its folded to you .... you find  Ah 5h and decide to put a little raise in to try and pick up the blinds.... 300 bet....  SB (I dont really know him) calls,  BB (decent player has moves) flat calls also.

FLOP   5d  Qh  As

SB Check
BB check

Bet 500 into a 900 pot   SB folds BB calls

Turn  7h

BB checks, you bet 1k into a 1900 pot.

BB raises to 4000

What would u do?

As you know he's a decent player with moves this could well be one of those moves.

He may have percieved your less than pot sized bets as a weakness and is trying to pick up the pot.

Risking half his stack on a move like that though makes me think a value raise is far more likely to have been the reason for his action on the turn.
I think if he were raising to see where he is with AJ, A10 he would have been more likely to do so on the flop. I think it's a value raise with AQ or AK.

Slow playing a big set, less likely but possible. A set of 5's even less likely and a set of 7's less likely still.

All this combined with your 11 outs if he's on the AQ or set (only 9 against the set of aces) and the fact that it's early on in the tournament point to going all-in here. He may even lay down AQ!


I'm not on form in live tournaments at the moment, so you might want to listen to some-one else. The tank is stuck in the mud.

I would be willing to go broke with the hand so i would smooth call, no need to raise as you are either miles ahead or simply on a flush draw. If he is bluffing the long dwell and call might induce an all in from him on the river if he reads you as weak.

So smooth call and be willing to call rest if chips on river.

If you smooth call I think you need to be prepared to lay down on river if you hand doesn't improve and he bets anything over 2k at you. I think that play is kinda weak and wouldn't do it myself.

I'm willing to go broke on the hand too, but when I do I want to get my chips in the pot first.

I figure he is thinking that you are playing position, and reads you for a bluff, probably holding a highish pair, or at worst A Q.

id move all in, if you flat call you are putting over half your stack in anyway so you would be nearly committed. i dont think it is likely he is holding  AQ because i think the bb would raise with AQ from a button raise. i think the hand i would be most worried about is A7. that would explain the flat call on the flop as he probably doesnt know where he is and feels now he has hit the 7 it has improved him. Although it still looks like a move to me because you have looked weak throughout the hand. i think 2 pair and the nut flush draw on that board looks pretty strong me so id be prepared to go broke

I think this is a bit of a non question really.

Whatever your opponent has I thuink its impossible for you to lay down as you flopped Aces Up and turned a flush draw.

Its very unlikely he has AQ as you are holding an Ace (but not impossible) and against a button raiser and a sb caller I feel he would have reraised holding QQ.

If as you say he is capable of making plays then surely he would have tried it pre flop or on the flop as by the turn there is more money in the pot and harder to succeed with a bluff.

By the time the turn has come there is a lot more in the pot and its possible but very unlikely he held 55 (you also had a 5 so unless he is suicidal wouldn't play 77 that way.

I believe your only choice is to decide whether to put him all in on the turn (even if he's in front you still have outs) or to smooth call with the intention of hoping he bets on the river to get the rest of his chips as if you put him all in on the turn and he is bluffing you let him get away from his hand.

If you smooth call his check raise regardless of what comes on the river I think you have to have made the decision to call him regardless of what comes on the river.

Personally I favour the smooth call of his check raise as I am calling him on the river anyway or putting him all in there as I am not going to throw this hand away regardless of what comes on the river and good luck if he makes a bigger Aces up on the river as by then he will be committed to calling almost with any hand he is holding except if he is on a complete steal.

What do I do here? I spend 25 minutes writing up a detailed mathematical analysis of the all-in after posting that it was my initial gut reaction only to have my computer crash and lose it  >:(

Not doing it again but I remember the result.

If you assume he has either AK,AQ,A7,A5,AA,QQ or 55 will fold AK and call with the rest then you spend 7.2k to get 6.2k equity from the pot (roughly, I had three decimal points going on earlier >:( >:()

So going all-in is a losing play. Adding a greater range of hands that he would have raised the turn with but then fold to your all-in won't make too much of a difference as the uncalled pot is 6.9k for which you are risking 7.2k.

Raising a bad play, who'd of thunk it?

Only I'm wrong again as I used the figure 6.9k when weighting the AK uncalled pot equity when it should have been 14.1k :blonde: (the 6.9 in the pot plus your 7.2k that you get back)
 
The actual equity from the all-in is 7.7k. It justs costs 7.2k so is a good move. Whether it's the best or not is still up for debate.

Adding more hands to the possible holdings of your opponent only improves the move.

Going all-in the right play, my faith in poker is restored.

OH bum look at the time I best be off.

I'd smooth call.

If you have decided to see the hand through, then you might as well keep him in and hope he bluffs or bets a marginal hand on the river for the rest of his chips.

TY all... 

the chips went in on the turn and he flipped  Qd  Qc  and I failed to imporve..... 

I've had a chat to a few people who know the player better this afternoon and apparently he's more solid than I imagined (it was a social event although 200 buy in..and i was half way through my 3rd pint  :)  )     

Got a little bit of stick for not putting him on the Set and a bit miffed to make such an early exit and have to do shuttle runs to the bar for the rest of the day!!


As a matter of interest if this had been on the net Id have kicked the laptop and moved onto the next one... but you tend to think more about the hands afterwards when uve driven two hours to get there and bounce out in level 2!!

Ho hum

wow, thats probably the only hand i wouldnt of put him on.with no reraise from him i dont think you can put him on pocket queens

Dunno whether to call or raise, but one way or another all the chips are going in. See you on the rail..... :(

Sometimes, there is no answer and nothing you can do. I think this is one of those cases, that's pretty as good a flop and turn as you could hope for and even if you knew what you were up against you still have 11 outs. If he has QQ, you have to say well played to him, (I'm not sure I could ever smooth call a raise here with QQ) but you've hit the flop almost as good as you would have wanted. Some hands are too good to get away from. This is one of them.

I wouldn't have bet the turn.

If you *know* he's a good player he won't call your bet with one which is losing and will only play the pot if he has a hand which is winning,

Checking also possibly induces a bluff on the river.

Never go broke on a draw in the early rounds of a big stack tournament!

I agree with noflops. just one of those things.

Fair enough. But with 2 pairs the draw is just a (rather nice) backup

I agree with not betting the turn. You have the whole deck in your hand and i would be checking to induce a bluff on the river.

He has to bet the turn, he has 2 pair, not just a draw and not much idea where his opponent is in the hand.

It is only when he is raised on the turn that we have a far better idea of where he stands. You can't put your opponent on a set every time they call a small flop bet.

His opponent could easily have something like A9o and checking the turn might let hit something like a non-heart 7,Q or 9 on the river to win.

I agree, Sklansky said in this situation 'never bet if a raise will make you throw up' if you bet he is unlikely to make a play given how early in the comp it is. I check and induce the bluff!

i dont see how you could put him on QQ! - i would have no doubt moved in on the turn and joined you on the rail, but what do i know! -

[/quote]
Sklansky said in this situation 'never bet if a raise will make you throw up'
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At least a raise lets you know where you are (behind)

thinking deeply about it i would be more inclined to pass.....ok youve only committed 2k chips from an 11k stack thats nothing...

if you think long and hard.....what are you beating that hes raised? Your 2 pair is weak and its too much to see a river odds wise....remember that flush draw doesnt make the hand great it only improves the hand by 1/5th....i think hes raising me with either 55, AQ or 77....i couldnt put him on queens!!

all depends on your style of play.......if your one of those that likes to be sure your ahead when chips go in then you pass..not easy....but you got to pass...

If you play in Brian Wilson/Total Poker mode then its obvious you commit yourself becase even if your hand is knackered you still have NUT outs.

I think it's a very interesting hand as there are compelling arguments for folding, calling and re-raising here.
Blonde is best.