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Basically the Premiership is a two horse race.  Right ?

Liverpool played great yesterday, and are looking better than they have at the beginning of a season in living memory.  But they weren't doing too bad last season until Rafa used his wonderful rotation system against Portsmouth, and then the wheels fell off.   So unless someone knows for sure that Rafa has changed religion, and is willing to play the best team, then it's just a matter of time until he blows Liverpool's chances out the window.

Arsenal are playing good football.  They have some very good / potentially fantastic forwards, and will dazzle any team that lets them play, and with Eduardo to return, going forward they will be as good as any, and better than most.  But the defense is as bad as it's been in the last 5 years, and the midfield has all the strength of a wet paper bag.  If they make any sort of challenge it'll freeze on them by the end of January.  And depth of squad ?  Nah.  It wasn't deep enough llast year, and this year it's lost two vital cogs, without any replacement.

Chelsea are looking good.

So it's Man U or Chelsea for the title.

Man Utd are apparently 11/4 this morning.

Is that good enough ?  Or should we hope they have another couple of iffy results before investing our hard earned ?

Didn't realise a draw away at Portsmouth was a bad result tbh. If only Fergie could get a result there occasionally....

I was in the pub watching it with a few 'pool fans and they were definately of the opinion that Rafa hadn't picked his strongest team, and a better result was possible, if not guaranteed.  Either way, from memory, admittedly, that was the beginning of when Liverpool started falling behind the leaders, and was the point that these guys kept on refering back to time and time and time and time ( you get the picture ) again when it all went wrong. 

When did you start writing off last season's league ?

And more importantly, is there any realistic chance that this year is going to be different ?

In relation to how well the other big clubs do at Fratton Park it was a good result, end of story. The league was not won or lost in that game regardless of what nonsense people will come out with.

These are the same fans who probably believe that Rafa rotates more than Ferguson when it fact their rotation is comparable over the length of a season - that's not my opinion, the statistical figures speak for themselves. What was the game where Ferguson left Ronaldo out and they lost to a mid table club? Oh yes no one remembers, Fergie doesn't get hammered when his rotation doesn't come off... When Mourinho was here his rotation was more or less identical to Rafa's. When fully fit, very very rarely will Reina, Carragher, Mash, Gerrard or Torres be left out. If we'd lost yesterday he'd have been hammered for leaving Torres and Gerrard out no doubt. Yet I doubt Fergie will get humped had Ronaldo been on the bench or had he not brought a fully fit Hargreaves on at half time.

I think the league was lost when Rafa's job was on the line and he new this. He knew losing in the Champion's League midweek would be him going so he took off Gerrard and Torres vs Reading and we lost. In fairness to Reading, they were winning anyway - so I take no credit from them, but the point is, it gave Rafa a priority he couldn't afford to lose - from this point on the league was not as important as his job was on the line. The selection in games prior to Euro games was not the best last season.

Can we win it? I dont think so no. Not this season anyway. Will we go close? I think we will which should be enough for the owners to keep Rafa. (IMO we need to qualify early from the CL group and I'd like to go out of the cup early) We only lost 4 games last season (less than Man U) but we drew so many because contrary to popular belief Torres is not superhuman and we couldnt kill teams off - mainly at home. With Keane and Riera in our ranks - Babel to hopefully improve and Agger's calm returning to us at the back after a lengthy lay off, our first XI (not necessarily our squad - we cant pay £20-30m per player!) is up there with Man U and Chelsea. Injury permitting, we'll hopefully be there or there abouts at least until April if not May.

The reason Fergy doesn't get slated is basically because he brings home the bacon.  In the early 90's when he was rebuilding, he did suffer the shouts for him to resign ( again ).

But in the last few years he's rebuilt ( again ) and has imo a potential Premiership winning team again this year.  Although to win 3 in a row sounds like it might be one too many.

I'd back Chelsea, but A) it's against my religion, B) I'm pretty sure it's illegal C) the odds just don't seem to be there.

Personally, I'm not a fan of Rafa, but as I'm an Arsenal fan, I don't suppose that's going to worry you too much  ;)

I think the only way Liverpool can win the title with him is to have a squad that is so strong you have two players of equal quality in most positions.

Riera looks like a good addition, but width has been your biggest problem for so long, I don't think he can make the difference on his own.

in short..yes 11-4 is a massive price..if MAnU go on a run agaion (and they will) their odds will shorten..they will be 6-4 at some stage this season and that's when you can lay them off and make a tidy profit.

But they are Tez.

Hopefully Babel will start to play on the right and Riera on the left. But you are correct - we need more quality in these areas.

I agree 100% - but if they rotate the around the same amount then maybe it's the difference in quality between the squads and not Rafa's policy that means we lose the league...

[X] Rotation is a bad idea if you don't have strength in depth.
[  ] Stick with rotation when it's not working.

I would agree if we hadn't won other trophies but seeing as we have I'd argue Rafa knows what he's doing squad depth or not.

Does the league not mean more by now than anything else?

Champions league is more dollars isnt it? Ridiculous really. Especially as they shouldnt be in it if theyre not good enough to be champions of their own country!

It does mate but if (in the past) by xmas we're 6 points off the top but capable of beating any team over two legs in Europe what would you go for? Especially with some of the squads we've had in recent years. You compare them to the Chelsea or Man U squad, already 6-10 points above us and why would you bust a gut to win away at Bolton when you have Barcelona midweek?

As I said above maybe it's the difference in the talent between our squads and not our manager's tactics that have been the difference in the past. Maybe his tactics have been a result of this gulf.

I know he'll always say season on season we have a good squad now, blah blah blah, we can win everything, what else can he say to the fans - and to the board who have just paid for his new players? But his mentality in the past vs the top teams has been very "dont get beaten" - unlike yesterday. Maybe this is the first year Rafa honestly believes we can go close.

Hopefully the squad can cope without Gerrard and Torres for the odd game here and there and still pick up 3 points just like Saturday.

Not any more it's not. Winning the league is worth more than winning the CL as of last season.

This is what I actually started the thread about, rather than how competitive are Arsenal and Liverpool.

I'm old.

And stupid.

I understand gambling in as much as I used to go down the bookies and bet on a race, or a series of races, either to win, or each way.  That's complicated enough for me.  An each way Yankee ftw, wahoooooo.

But nowadays, what with Befair, and similar sites, you guys don't necessarily need Utd, to come back enough to win the title ( which is what I was thinking about )
but just to improve enough to challenge.

So you can take advantage of the shorter odds by laying ( ? ) them, and making a profit either way.

Is there an idiots guide on how to go about this ?  How much risk would there be ?  When and how would one get the profit ?  What sort of profit could one aim for , if one ( me  ;)  ) staked, say £10, £50, £100, £300 respectively.

wait til they lose at stamford bridge next weekend and you will get an even better price!

Not sure how correct i am here but im 90% sure that out of the big 4 last season (may not have been the case by end of season but certainly in the latter stages) rafa rotated his team the least but the problem was they don't have as good squad players as they other 3.If Liverpool keep the best players fit for most of the season and play them all the time they'll come a lot closer than they have for a long time imo.I was glad the scousers won on sat since it may lead to a more exciting title race hopefully time will tell i guess.

Also 11/4 is a huge price for man u, i'd lump on it if i had money to tie up for 9 months.They've the best 1st team,the best squad by far and since chelsea have already lost one of there best players not a gr8 start for them injury wise.

It's fairly debateable if ManU have 'by far' the best 1st 11 or squad  imo, i think Chelsea can more than match them best 11 v best 11 and i would also say they have more depth in their squad

So imo your opinions are slightly off the mark but of course thats just my opinion

I'll sue if Utd win, though

 ;)

I think that it is worth pointing out that creative central midfield players are somewhat thin on the ground at manure.

With the notable exeption of 33 year-old Paul Scholes that is.

One other possible area of concern is the now regularly unconvincing play from Van Der Saar.

11/4 still looks tempting mind you as liverpoo were less than inspiring in their first two games.

It is just my opinion also and I wouldn't expect everyone to agree with it i just think man utd have a stonger team especially in attack:Man u have rooney,roanldo,berbatov,tevez chelsea have drogba,anelka,kalou ? can't think of anyone else for chelsea and as i think all four named for man u are much much better players than anelka and kalou.Chelsea have a better keeper i'd say the defences and midfields were quite equal however man u have better replacements imo.

I'd back at 11-4 and lay them off at 6-4 or 7-4 later on in the season...ITB actually has a good idea..wait with some of the money you're sticking on until after the Chelski game..if they lose that they would go 7-2'ish (market always over reacts) and stick the last bit of money on after that game (if they beat Chelsea they shouldn't go much shorter that 5-2 and would still be worth backing IMO)

How many goals did Man U score, and therefore create last year? I agree they don't have that stereotype creative play maker - but they have something far more cutting, clinical and effective in Ronaldo. The addition of Berbatov and his ability to bring people into play could put them in an even better position to score more goals this year.

Agree with the keeper, disaster waiting to happen.