blonde poker forum

Outright betting on the WSOPE Final Table is now available in the Specials section of the Blue Square Sportsbook.

Juanda 7/2
Negreanu 7/2
Alekhin 5/1
Demidov 5/1
Fischman 6/1
Keston 7/1
Sonnert 12/1
Hiltunen 16/1
Elliott 25/1

e/w 1/5 odds 1-2-3

Good luck!

Fischman is worth a flutter!

sonnert is a ridiculous price, I would rate him above every player at the table even the "names"

market also just formed on betfair with every price on offer shorter than blue squares prices to show the prices done by blue square are a bit big. They will be ammended before the start Im sure.

demidov IMO, said on pokernews, he had just won three majors in russia, obviously has the WSOP final as well so will definitely go for the win IMO...

i would leave it till closer the day, its a 122% book which is not very good, should be able to get better than that in a few weeks

Will you guarantee me these prices in a few weeks?   ;)

how much closer do you want?

its always a gamble just taking a price,all you can do is look at the book and see if its value,cant gurantee any price will not fall but can gurantee you will get far better books than 122% nearer the day which should mean most prices will be better than offered right now.

Isnt 'that day' today?

sssshh. always one that spoils it

Could you explain what you mean by a 122% book?

sorry not been up long after a few last night,thinking of wsop in november, 122% is still not great value

Ok mate. I'll let you know who i fancy on Saturday,if you fancy taking my money!

rotflmfao rotflmfao

+1

It means if they took bets on each eventuality to an equal liability then they would pocket 22% of money staked.

if there are 4 horses in a race and each horse is 3/1, if you back a £1 on each horse you get £ 4 back whichever horse wins,no one wins or looses, thats a 100% book,
the closer the book is to 100% the better value=better prices,
you work the book out by adding 1 to the price on offer ,so 4 horses at 3/1
is 100 divided by 4 =25 4x25 = 100% book,  
if the bookies offered 9/4 for each horse in this 4 horse race, the book would be 123%.
if you back a £1 on every horse on the race you would pick up£3.25 and would loose 75p

 if you backed every runner to get a return of £100 you would need to lay out £122. This gives the bookie his theoritical profit.

To work out the percentage you need to convert every price to its 100% return.

eg 7/2

multiply the denominator 100 =  200
add both the denominator and the numerator  7+2=9
now divide the 200 by 9  = 22.22
£22.22 @ 7/2 returns £100

in this day and age a standard book for an eight runner field (win only) should start at 103% plus 1% for each additional runner.

more like 18% isn't it?

Betfair will have in running odds throughout, currently they are worse than Bluesquare but later on will be worth a peek.

Little hint for anyone in London, the in running odds are usually based on the live updates, if you can get to the empire and rail the event, you can potentially make a few bob before snoops and co post the latest bustouts. Thats obviously borderline insider trading, but what the heck.

Such a tough final table to predict, I kinda want Demidov to do it just because it would be huge for the november 9 thing. Bengt (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=481) Sonnert (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=481) is deffo the most underated player at the table, just a shame he has no chips really. Im torn between the two Russians and obv negreanu and Juanda. I guess we should all be routing for Keston but the sod knocked me out of the PartyPoker European Open (thinly veiled ive played on tv post IMO).

Does that mean you can back on bluesq and lay on bf for profit?

No, at the moment the odds are worse than bluesquare, but once the cards are dealt and hands start getting reported, they'll fluctuate accordingly and you might be able to get better pices on them.

122% is very fair for a poker book in my experiece. You'll never get a 100% book for one on the exchanges because there's just not enough liquidity.
The RP price up at +2% for every horse as a rule of thumb, so 116% for an 8-runner race, 122% for 11 runners, etc

anyone who underrates bengt is a fool. One of the best players in the world and certainly one of the biggest winners over the last few years but has been off the scene thanks to some personal problems. I said to blue square they made a rick with the 12-1 and said if he won his first hand he was a certainty for top 2 and the favourite to win.

final table feed (couple of minute delay before anyone uses it for betting).

http://wsope.betfair.com/live-video/live-video.html

give it a couple of minutes after it starts and the echo does disappear on the sound.

Wish id seen this thread before the final started, wouldve been all over Sonnert @ 12s.

Is Sonnert 'Gulkines' online?

He used to be pokerbt or similar on Ladbrokes 2 or 3 years ago. I think he had some sort of arrangement with them at the time - can't think of any other reason he would have been playing like a pillock in a $10 SnG.

whoever gulkines is hes a total machine crushes eveyone and anyone

Site/levels?

crypto £100/200 its got to the point hardly anyone will play him

Fergus might give it a go

 ::)

The russians seem to be ruling at the mo and not tangling with each other so I still say demidov will win!

Yeh he's an absolute sicko, someone on blonde posted ages ago that Gulkines was Sonnert but he's been playing online the last few days since Sonnert has been in the WSOPE so its gotta be someone else. for no reason at all im really curious to know who he is

i asked tillerman a while ago but he didnt know just said hes been playing there for yrs an yrs

live feed is pretty good juanda looks like hes gonna take it down

I was getting bored of this 45m ago and said next 1m chip pot that occurs i am going to bed, still not happened, sigh all i want is 10BB each!

lol pure com saw Paul Whitting wandering around officiating so sent him a text "you look as bored as me" i then watched him spend the next 5 minutes scan the face of everyone in the casino looooooooolz

Well i thought it was funny

lol they need to be more aggresive

theyve been doin the most amount of gay min raises ive ever seen

Seriously i am on life tilt!

Good thing Empire is 24hr!

Wiiiiiiiiiiii finally a pot over 1m i can go too bed!

wow they're still plodding on..

The Betfair "live" video feed is amazing.
I fell asleep watching it.
Woke up at 7:30am and they were still going - Nick Geber (?) and Nik Persaud had been commentating for 17 hours straight (with breaks when the players took breaks).
They may be starting to suffer the consequences. They seem to be alternating between thinking this is really great heads-up or this may kill off live feeds of final tables for ever.

First thing that I heard was them discussing some guy who was so fat that they were worried that he might crush his girlfriend when they made the beast with two backs. They progressed to wondering how he managed to wipe his arse - or did he use a hosepipe? (Need serious technical input from DingDell on that one, I guess).

Later they were discussing the merits of receiving 72 virgins on ascending to heaven (not sure what faith that is but I may sign up). Their initial thoughts were that it was a good deal but then they realised that it was for eternity so perhaps not so great! "72 virgins? for eternity? that's a long time - that's like one every 10,000 years isn't it?" (I paraphrased them).

The Heads Up is now around the 6 hour mark - I should know this, but what's the record?

damn I never knew there was going to be a live feed-its amazng- crystal clear!!!! its impressive the time this final table has been played- Juanda and Alekhin must be feeling it now-must be so mentally draining playing 20hrs+.

So glad Pokernews didnt ask me to do live updates in London this year.

No idea what the longest nlhe heads up match was, i think the longest ever was the 16 hour HORSE heads up match

There's your answer on the live feed. It was between the late Chip Reese and Andy Bloch someone said 8 hours but 'tinternet argues it was 7 hrs 10

That was HORSE too.

Man Alekhin will regret that later after all these hours

Juanda wins- all in with K6 against Alekhins A9 and Juanda flops trip 6's

Alekhin was short stacked though so wasn't too bad a push

Quads on the river.

I think Norman Chad should realise he is on live feed, when he kind of accuses the Russians of foul play, before the main interview LOL  Dem Dam Russkies!

WP JJ

Yep. Not the smartest move.

What did he say?? the live feed kept sticking for me during the interview

Just watched the interview with Bengt sonnert- he looks absolutely fucked in it- even says he's getting flu like symptoms after playing so long

greekstein, Gulkines - steffan matson, swedish