blonde poker forum

ok so the blinds are at £1/£2 were 8 handed and i'm in the big blind with  5d 5h.

some body has straddled to £4 and with a limp from redbull hijack makes it £20 and gets 4 callers!! so £101 in the pot going to the flop.

including: me (bb) £750 , redbull (utg) £650 , raise to £20 guy (hijack), flat caller (cutoff), flat caller (button).

flop:  5s 7d Ts

i check looking to check raise a continution bet from an overpair.

redbull bets half pot £50

raise to £20 guy flat calls

cutoff passes, button passes.

i raise to £175 total.

redbull thinks for 30 seconds , quite quick for a very big decision before declaring all in for £630 total.

hijack passes and its back to me.

my thoughts at this point:  initial range i put him on was 1.  Th 7h  2.  7c 7h  3.  Tc Td 4.  Aspades XSPADES 5.  8s 9s.

i then further narrowed this range based on my read of his action to no.s 1,2 and 3.

i then felt 1010 was unlikely and put him on one of two hands namely 107suited , and 77.

but it felt like 95% he had 77 at this point so i ended up making a sick pass.

ALL OPINIONS APPRECIATED , AND REDBULL PLEASE REVEAL YOUR HAND!!!

terribe pass, in a cash game. He prolly has nut spades or spades and a pair. Play lower if your frightened to call here

If you'd kept going with making these reads you might have been able to work out what he was thinking of having for breakfast the next day.

How did you manage to arrive at a 95% probability of 77?

Nick's a good player obv. - therefore I dont think he's getting it in this deep without a v.strong hand, given how much strength you have shown.

I think he raises TT 100% PF, therefore you can discount.
 Aspades 7s would make  some sense, as would  8s 9s (plus  7s 7h).

FWIW I call.

Incidentally, what do you think his take on you is?

It’s hard to say having not been playing the hand myself and not having the benefit of previous history.

Your ability, previous history and knowledge of how he plays will determine how accurately you can pinpoint his range. If this range is accurate than you are crushed. Barring the 10-7 which I would weight less than the 77 and even the 1010 (perhaps not 95/5/0 though). If you add hand 4 & 5s to his range. You have 25% equity. Add even more hands to his range to bring you up to 50% equity, the rake beats you. If you go beyond 50% you may be being too generous with your ranges. Its hard to say with no history though, does he like to peddle the nuts? Or does he frequently put over 200bb with 2 pair or less?

Regardless, people may slate you for this. I don’t think its terrible. Nice to see a hand worth commenting on for once.

Incidentally, what do you think his take on you is?

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solid!

i'd only really been showing down winning hands. and c/r to £175 is very strong i think he would need to give serious thought before moving in with flush draw

he had a fluhs draw, he had good FE obv

I don't think this is a terrible pass, but it's still a pass I would struggle to make.

This post assumes that it's not a super loose game. You seemed surprised at 4 preflop callers so i'm assuming it's not a crazy game.

Let's look at this from villian's point of view and forget what you have. He's seen you flat call a preflop raise (could be quite a few hands), and then check raise on a flop that's probably missed most people (apart from putting some draws out there). Your raise is showing a lot of strength so either:
a) you have a hand
b) you're making a play thinking people are weak and you can take it down

We'll go with a) here. b) is possible, but in a multiway pot it's risky.

Given we now know you have a hand, what could it be? Well, it's probably the same range you gave yourself, except I'd be surprised to find  Th 7h there. To me I'd be reading this line as a set, so  5c 5d or  7c 7d make sense.  Tc Td is also a possibility. You might even have the draw yourself. We arrive at this conclusion and then go all in. To do this I either have  Tc Td ,  7c 7d , or  8s 9s.

From that range, what hand do you want to see? Only the flush/straight draw. If he has the overset you're crushed.

wasnt a flush draw.

and when i bet £175 into 2 players it dosent look like i'm going anywhere.

so not good fold equity

it was tho, cause he got you to lay down a set

i am expected to call with a set though, and in position he could just peel

BTW, even tho I call, I don't think it's a bad pass necessarily - if you put him 95% + on  7h 7s then you have got to let it go.

Just not sure you can get it down that narrow.

obv not 95% 77 that would just be naive, but i really did feel i was just gonna call £400 off and get 77 put in my eye

I doubt he can just peel a fd profitably with stacks like they were in relation to ur flop c/r size.  Nick is a savvy enough play to be able to balance his flop 3bet range with a lot of combo-draws and pair/fd's as well as sets.

Its a call yo.

hands i would rule in would be As Ah or As Ks

i wouldnt lay down the set on that board too many hands out there you are crushing and only 2 your behind too

fwiw and not a lot to this hand i had  5h 5s last night on a  5c 8d Td flop and me and compo got it all in on the flop for about 150 BB. Compo obv had 10 10. If i were you tho i wouldnt pass.

no way nick has AA or KK here ever

yeah lol obv and AKs is super unlikely.

this sounds very much like the Rupinder Bedi hand at dtd last night

555 v 10 10 10, turn 5 river 10

p.s I'm not folding here.

p.p.s Nick's range here is far wider than the over-set.

jesus. his range is combos and 77. get it innnnnnn all day long.

Wow - I thought you were full of it saying you had a set of 5's here. I guess I was wrong lol.

I'm still really surprised if you pitched a set here. As I said immediately after the hand, if I were you I would of snapped me off in this spot because I have a draw a lot of the time. I'd never pass a set here on this board and our stacks.  As a few have rightly said I'll weak lead/3 bet with combo draws, sets and top 2 here to balance so you'll always have good equity with bottom set vs my range here. This time I had T7 soooted for top 2. I was the straddler btw (which was live) and obv defended last to act :)

As an unknown (in a usually very fishy £1/£2 game) I could only put you on a pretty broad range of: lots of possible draws/worse 2 pair/maybe overpair and I'm obviously just unlucky if you've got a set as 7's and Ten's are unlikely because of my hand. I actually thought you were in a decent spot to squeeze light too, certainly I'd be squeezing in your spot some of the time.

I was briefly considering whether to flat and shove over your turn c-bet, assuming a safe turn, or just get it in on the flop. Heh, I'm used to people stacking off here soooo light vs me I just opted to try and get it in.

I'd only start to even consider passing a suspected underset in extreme circumstances, like if we were 1000+ BB's deep or if I have TONS of history to suggest villain only makes this move with a higher set but even then it's tough IMO.

Just my take on it anyway for what it's worth... You're obviously a very good player and perhaps just overthought this spot a little? Get it in with fist pump.

BTW, I was on the table for that Rupinder Bedi hand. That was sick - live poker def. rigged.

Correct. Never ever.

The P/F raiser I'm donking into has the Aces. He didn't go for the RR though unfortunately.

Never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever pass in this spot. If your beat, your beat /thread

You'd insta pass to me though cos you know I just play Nutzzzzzz.  :kiss:

LOL I'm in with 5kkkkkkkkkkkkkk, if u ever get me set over set you get the house keys mate..........

btw while I'm posting just bubbled pca package so fk poker for the moment, ugh.

Damn, unlucky mate.

sorry i thought nick was the aggressor preflop

Not read past opening post. Dont pass ever. Not for 325 bbs, not for 3250 bbs not for 3.25m bbs

I can understand your thinking, but believe you have crossed off too many possible holdings. You've also got to consider his view of you, not just in the sense that he's unfamiliar with you as a player, but that your raise could represent a number of hands in which his aces, T-7, 7-5 or whatever is beating. With the dosh already in there and the fold equity (even if not huge), he may also be happy to shove it in with the flush draw. You're only losing to one hand here, I think you've got to stick it in.

lol, just screamed 1010 or 77 to me where i'm crushed, as 10 7 was a marginal call pre, and i really thought it was a made hand and not a draw.

no wonder i've won all my money in poker in tournaments.

long live donkaments

gg

Nick can turn 101010 face up here and I still call with 555 and try and put the one outer in his eye.

P.s I miss doing it burger against Redbull and Woodsey. fun times

Depends how badly his oppos play the streets, clearly they play horrifically!

Cash games at DTD.  Of course they play it horrifically.

10 7 sooted = Nutzzzz on my straddle.

WOW

I can never ever get away from a flopped set on this board. Or pretty much any board for that matter.

Too likely he has big draw. You have to call. Folding is very bad here imo.

I have to go with majority Im afraid, gotta make a call but I wouldnt be overly excited knowing how many hands the oppo could have.