blonde poker forum

Read only if you are very bored.  Skip to the last line if you just want my selections.

Anyone who reads my blog will have noticed I have a disproportionate interest in the US election considering I'm not American.  My reasons for this are a bit personal and wishy washy so I won't bore you with all that...but my endless hours following the campaigns has led to a couple of good wagering opportunities if nothing else. So anyway - this is a cut and paste from my blog. 

***

I made the mistake of drinking Red Bull and eating spicy food when I got home tonight so I'm a little bit wired and need to babble on about stuff for a while to calm me the fuck down. So let's discuss how I believe things will go tomorrow....obviously everything written from this point on assumes that no massive voter fraud on a Zimbabwean level occurs.

For betting in-running purposes the chronology of the election ought to look something like this:

6pm - Indiana and Kentucky polls close. Within the hour Kentucky will be called for McCain, Indiana will be too close to call (we're being pessimistic here..Indiana may just be called for Obama)

7pm - McCain will be up 8-0 on Obama in Electoral College votes.

7pm - Polls close in: Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia.

Vermont ought to be called for Obama pretty soon. South Carolina & New Hampshire will be too early to call and Virginia and Georgia will be too close to call. This puts McCain at 8, Obama at 4 in Electoral College votes.

7:30pm - Polls close in Ohio, West Virginia.

Ohio will be too close to call, West Virginia too early to call. Some time before 8pm the news dudes will probably call South Carolina for McCain and New Hampshire for Obama. That puts McCain at 16, Obama at 7 EC votes. Virginia, Georgia and Ohio will be too close to call.

8pm - Polls close: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee

This here is where things get interesting and CNN pundits really start going to town on their huge plasma touch-screen TV's and gadgets and toys. Some of them may pass out with all the excitment. Almost certainly the guy on CNN will climax.

McCain will be projected to win the following states: Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee - Mississippi will be too early to call because they cain't count too good down theyaaah.

Obama will be projected to win states: Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania will be too early to call (only cause it's quite big), Florida too close to call (pessimism here again, only cause of the trouble this state usually causes the good guys).

That puts the race now at 99-43 for Obama at about 8:15pm Eastern Time.

At 8:30pm - McCain will be projected the winner in West Virginia & Mississippi. And the Plasma screen guy will have regained consciousness and downed a sugary drink.

So the following states will be too close or too early to call if they count slow and we're being pessimisitc: Indiana, Georgia, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania.

At 8:29pm, right before Arkansas and North Carolina polls close, Obama will be at 99 electoral votes, McCain at 54.

8:30pm - Those polls close: Arkansas is called for McCain, North Carolina is too close to call (pessimism again). Obama stays at 99, McCain is at 60.

8:45-ish - Pennsylvania is awarded to Obama and Georgia called for McCain. Obama is now at 120, McCain at 75.

Too close to call states now currently; Indiana, Virginia, Ohio and Florida.

Shortly before 9 Eastern Time, Virginia is called for Obama. Obama now stands at 133, McCain at 75.

9pm - Loads of polls close in loads of states.

McCain is projected the winner in the following dumb incest riddled farming states:

Kansas
Louisiana
Nebraska
Texas
Wyoming

Obama is projected the winner in the following intelligent clever people states and Wisonsin:

New York
Minnesota
Rhode Island
Wisconsin

South Dakota & New Mexico are too early to call, Arizona and Colorado are too close to call. At this point the experts start to discuss whether McCain can lose his own State of Arizona. There is fist shaking and finger wagging. Meanwhile, Obama's lead in the electoral college balloons to 188-132.

9:30-ish pm - New Mexico is called for Obama, South Dakota for McCain. That puts Obama at 193, McCain at 135.

Indiana is then projected for Barack Obama!! People gasp and a woman faints. Talk now turns to how America is on the brink of making history by electing an African American President. Someone mentions Rosa Parks. Obama leads 204-135.

The states yet to be called:

Ohio
Florida
North Carolina
Colorado
Missouri

Right before polls close in the western half of the country, the news dudes will project Obama as the victor in Colorado. Obama now leads 213-135.

Polls then close in 5 states. McCain is projected the winner in the following:

Utah a place populated by people who think Jesus came from outta space.

Obama is projected the winner in the following:

Iowa, where I think Radar was from in MASH.

Montana, Nevada and North Dakota are too close or too early to call.

Obama now leads 220-140. McCain is rumoured to have gone missing having not returned from the bathroom...McCain staff members over hear him saying he's going out for a walk and maybe sometime. Obama camp announce their man will speak once California's votes come in or when he's finished his jig-saw.

At this point, three hours after polls closed, Ohio is called for Obama. Joe the Plumber escapes to Canada. Two and a half hours after polls closed in Florida, it is called for Obama as well. Thousands of the States elderely Jewish populace are seen attempting an exodus to Cuba on inner-tubes. With both states won, Barack Obama now sits at 267 electoral votes, three away from 270.

Right before 10pm, McCain is projected the winner in North Dakota and Montana. Obama is then declared the winner in Nevada, putting him over 270 electoral votes at roughly 9:50pm Eastern Time.

A huge gust of wind blows over the country extinguishing the fires in California and freshening up the horrible stench from George W. Bush's 8 years in the White House as the entire globe breaths a sigh of relief.

The cable news networks flash up graphics announcing Obama as the 44th President of the United States except at Fox news where they pull out the power cables and exit via a tunnel to make their escape to Venezuela.

10pm - Polls then close in 5 states.

McCain is projected in:

Idaho

Obama is projected in:

California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii

Arizona is also finally called for McCain.

And at 10:15 EST, Obama has 349 electoral votes, McCain 160.

Around 10:30, North Carolina is called for Obama. And around 11:00 Eastern Time, Obama is projected the winner in Missouri, not that it matters.

Alaska, an hour later, is declared for McCain.

Obama wins 375-163.

McCain finally returns to his head quarters explaining he was out looking for his dog Mr Puddles and asks if anything has happened while he was gone. He is given gas and air on his way to the Emergency Room after Cindy McCain explains how things have progressed. He regains consciousness again several hours later only to lose consciousness immediately after asking the same question about the election's progress. Eventually he is relocated to a secure unit where he will be spoon fed and only given soft crayons to write with.

Obama then gives a speech that is replayed around the world for the next few days and we all begin the process of forgiving the United States for the last eight years and collectively working at unraveling the Gordian Knot George Bush tied the globe in.

***

As I explained earlier, I actually think Obama will win Georgia and even John McCain's home state of Arizona which are currently being offered up at something like 3.9 and 4.5 respectively on Betfair. McCain made the mistake of not campaigning in these places or any "red-states" assuming they were safe. They were far from safe and it's too late now to do anything about it.

Obama to win Georgia 3.9 - NAP
Obama to win Arizona 4.5
Electoral College votes won - 351 or greater 1.81

Interesting read, ty

Good read, I laughed at a number of points. Will be watching tonight/ tomorrow morning, hoping your predictions are right. The world could do without another war mongering Republican president.

Might liven it up with a bit of betfair action as well.

Out of the early states, Virginia and Indiana are the ones to watch - if Obama wins either of these McCain is dead in the water. Neither has voted for a Democrat since 1964.

Loved that!!!   rotflmfao ;applause;  I will be up all night.  And turn into a zombie by mid day tomorrow.  Will be an interesting night. 

Jeez I do hope Obama wins!

Obama has got it in the bag already, with the crucial swing town of Dixville notch.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/us_elections_2008/7707667.stm

I don't want to count my chickens yet until its a fact he's won, those republican fukers always find a way to cheat and somehow get in, aka the florida debacle.

Yeah but Acid he has already got a double figure lead in votes already.

I want to believe! Just read a book about the florida voting and the aftermath, maybe I am too cautious.

100% voter turnout!   ;gobsmacked;

Skipped to the last bit and have backed accordingly. Lets hope you're right. Random tips FTW.

I don't think any bet is worth taking in the US elections imo.

lol rossfour, you big degen you

This is just the sort of election where you must not put faith in opinion polls. Trying to rack my brains and work out the date, I think it was '79, when the polls in the UK suggested a landslide Labour win but Thatcher returned. The analysis showed that people were embarrassed to admit they were going to vote for her and many opted to state they were voting Labour, some pretended to be undecided. I fear that the polls may have a similar fault in the States, most Americans seem to know who they, perhaps, should vote for but when putting that "X" on the slip old prejudices and greed may guide their hand.

True Robert,(though i was making sarky post about Obama having 20 vote to McCains 10 in Hicksville.

92' British election was similar where Kinnock's labour party were ahead in all the polls and lost the election by about 25 seats, it is interesting dynamic how much anonomyous prejudice there will be against Obama that the pollsters don't pick up. His lead in the polls is so significant though they are going to have to be miles out for McCain to win this.

Yep, that's the one, where the EXIT polls were way out. Even after posting their vote, people were too shame faced to admit who which way they voted.

yep, probs 79 you're thinking of, thatcher's first win

83 was a tory landslide so can't have been than

I think if Obama wins in anything towards a landslide, there should some serious props to Howard Dean for his '50 State Strategy'.

Ladbrokes took a £72,000 bet on Obama at 1/16 this afternoon.

As any decent betting firm should.

Last of the big spenders that I am, I've just put a tenner on McCain at 20 on BF because, y'know, strange things happen in these things and that's a big enough price.

I'll be watching tonight's election on FOX.

I figure it's the best place to watch it from a spectators point of view as they won't treat it as a foregone conclusion like the beeb, Sky, and other American news networks.

i think it was also to do with the fact many of the people who claimed they were going to vote labour were no longer on the voters register trying to dodge the poll tax

[X] Tank's thoughts whilst watching Fox will be, "Put a positive spin for the right-wing on this one bitches."

They seem to have lost their "fair & balanced" logo in the past couple of days.

:)up

Great post Rich.  Blonde's Peter Snow.

Any one watching?

ya

Me + beer + rum + one of my housemates.

Yes i am, watching it on CNN which seems to the most up to date.

Republicans FTW imo.

gogogogogogogo McCain

You really don't like winning do you Brent?

LoL, im just supporting the underdog as usual, as most ppl seem to be supporting Obama.

What do beer and rum look like? Didnt know you was into group orgies.

+1

Palin for prez

Lol give it up boys, if the projections for Pensylvannia are correct this is over already.

If the projections are correct, this was over two months ago.

fk projections, I'm watching FOX and this is an exciting race that could go either way.

Projections>>>>>>>>>>> Polls, they will only officially call a state (a projection) if they are pretty sure it will it will go that way. BBC and other US networks have called PA for Obama, McCain needs to win PA for this to be even close.

Though they have got it wrong before, but i will give you 10/1 on McCain winning if you want.

FOX hasn't, although it has reported that other networks have called it for Obama.

The fox desicion desk takes their calling responsibilities a little more seriously.

PA has now fallen on FOX too

I'm drinking everything that's left over.

holding Georgia, hope is alive for the party of peace!

:D

noooooooo, not Patrick!!!

gg Obama

Brothers in charge of the world!!!

So with Obama getting the gig, does this mean the US will let punters play poker online ??

Pretty historic day though.

Might have taken this but internet gambling is wrong.

Except for horse racing and lotterys obv

Wd Obama, restores a small bit of faith in the US for me.

Hahaha, class kev.

Good to know you have your priorities your sorted.

Gore Vidal guests the BBC coverage.

Vidal to David Dimbleby, "I have no idea who you are."

Hilariously awkward interview, but serious kudos to Dimbleby, ultimate professional.

Now I just hope that he can survive his tenure in the Oval Office.

This whole election wouldn't have mattered if they hadn't taken over the House and Senate as well...which they did.  Democrats win the lot.  They've got the ball.  They can accomplish so much now if they play the game right.  Just hope they don't drop the ball while they have it, but something tells me they might be ok. 

Yet cali sneak in the prop 8 bill, not allowing same sex marriages :P

Glad Obama can appoint his own choice of supreme judges too.

Anything that came up against this historical event was always going to be lost in the shuffle.  Media weren't bothered, so the public took no notice.  Hopefully once the dust settles, they'll reverse that one, but it's all about Obama until he's sworn into office on 20 January.  Then we see what he's truly made of.     

I can't remember being happier about an election result.

We can take the piss out of Americans all we want...most of the time they deserve it...but when it really mattered they stood up and voted to do things differently. And completely differently at that. The change their country has gone through in the past 40-50 years is truly atonishing, and it makes me wonder whether Holland or Brittain would have elected Obama...or whether the mainstream parties would even consider putting a coloured person up as their candidate...or whether in Brittain someone will actually go back to their ideals and get elected on a positive platform rather than "they are worse than I am".
I hope he does what he set out to do and that his party will support his ideas in Congress and the senate.

Amazing and inspiring stuff.