blonde poker forum

Live MTT

100-200 blinds, a long way from the money

Hero 9,500 slightly above average stack

Villain in BB 8,000

Hero makes it 700 in MP with  Qs Qh

folded to BB who flats. He is not often seen getting out of line, in Hero's limited experience of him.

Flop  9d 8d 5h

Check, Hero bets 1200

Called

On the  7h turn the Villain leads for 2,500

On Hero, is this a standard fold?

has he read that book that tells you to donk the turn with a flush draw?

No idea, but if he's put me on a standard c/bet on the flop with AK say, he can represent a hand on the turn. Didn't seem the type to call the flop with x6 looking for a gutshot, unless it was Ad 6d, where I say most would c/r or bet/3 bet.

I pondered and was torn between pushing and passing.

weird spot. i dunno. folding is probably fine though.

I probs fold here.

Its hard for you to call this much of your stack, especially with no plan for the river even though it is a good spot for an opponent to bluff with a 10j or flushdraw type hand. No good card can possibly hit

Its a live MTT - wait for a better spot, plenty of live donks waiting to double you up.

Looks like a fold, would be pretty horrid spot against someone tricky.

seems like a pretty standard fold to me.

for a number of reasons.

.... plus you can find a lot of better spots in a local donkament

Tricky hand!

Based on what you know of the player, I guess you have to pass.

Weird play for a 6, but 2 pair possibilities are there. Possible you're passing the best hand but fold seems about right...

Are we calling that raise from the BB with 66?

sure

are we putting 1200 in with a gutshot on the flop? suppose some will.

obv 3betting.

i think its a fold theres alot of combinations which include a 6.

I'm really surprised everyone wants to fold here. If the turn just made the guy's hand with some middle-pin magic why would he fire out 1/3 of Tighty's remaining stack? This is a really serious question he is posing and as Tighty says he was thinking about all-in or fold. So his oppo gets him seeing that 2.5k bet as an all-in bet, well powerful! And if you make that powerful move when the turn brings a significant danger card to anyone not holding 10-J or a 6 (which is almost everyone), then your chances of taking the pot with say Ahrt Jh or A-10 are very high. If you play off a tight image this is so effective because people believe you have it. But if you had it why would you be so aggressive with it?

i saw his 2,5k as a powerful bet becuase if I merely called it I would have likely faced an even tougher river decision, and I didn't see how I could form a plan for the rest of the hand...apart from deciding he didn't have the six now and thus calling a river shove. However most of the deck is a scare card for the river, so my choice on the turn was all in or fold I beleived.

I agree with that.  If you are behind the money goes in anyway.  If you just call and he is drawing and misses there is very little chance of him bluffing the river as you have committed so much to the pot. 

Well exactly that Tighty. Any reasonable player will think the same. So if you bet 2.5k into any reasonable player it will get that player thinking seriously about stack commitment. So villain gets a 7.5k bet for the price of a 2.5k bet, and thats pretty good value. Making this type of bet at this particular time is going to get a lot of reasonable players to fold their hand. Why would the nuts want that?

and this, I think, is at the heart of why I posted this hand. Not that I was capable of articulating it like that or going to that level whist sitting there pondering at the table.

Whilst I did fold, I was niggling myself about it.

The nuts might not want that but a number of hands that are beating QQ might want to bet out here.

That is true. He could deffo do this with 2 pair, say 7-8 or even 9-10. But I don't think a flopped set c-calls only to bet out strong on the turn and I don't think he bets strong with a straight either. So although the board is scary you can still eliminate a lot of the strong hands. If you say he doesn't have 10-J, a 6, or a set, it makes the all-in move a serious consideration, more appealing than folding imo anyway. Although you could always be behind there is a very good chance you are ahead, a good enough chance for me to push anyway.

jam over his lead.

edit:  If he had checked the turn to me i would shut down check back, have decision on river.   But since he lead the turn into us I would shove because although u could be jamming into the nuts I dont like folding coz u cant win when u fold (whats the point in making marginal folds in a quick mtt, or almost any mtt?).  Its too easy for him to bet like this with some draw/ combo draw that hasnt got there yet to try get to the river cheap so I think your good a decent % of time so best get value out of his draws.  If he does have the nizzles stand up and go think of make up a story to tell your mates how u got coolered/ took a "sick" beat and move onto the next tourney. (obv call the other guy a moron for having a better hand than you b4 you leave).

Yeah, I agree with that. I would be thinking a pair/draw combo is the most likely holding and would push on that basis. In the bit of time you get I would take a stab at him folding to a push 50% of the time, calling 25% when behind, and calling 25% when ahead. Obv that sort of gamble is +ev. A few people have said wait for a better spot, but I think that is a leak in tournament play. When you have a comfortable stack you will always have a ready made excuse to find a better spot. If your target is winning all the chips how can you be satisfied with the chips you have? This could be that better spot.

Table image is important. I suspect Tighty's was ahem pretty tight, and this adds more credibility to the suspicion behind the bet. Also folding gives you that niggly regret that Tighty mentioned. I remember someone saying you should make poker decisions like you're looking back on them tomorrow and have no regrets. I like that.