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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: snoopy1239 on December 21, 2008, 01:49:53 AM



Title: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: snoopy1239 on December 21, 2008, 01:49:53 AM
50p/£1 table. 6-handed. Very little on opponent. He's only been at the table for a round or two, but has a full stack.

I raise to £3 from the button with Ad Ks. He calls in the sb, as does the bb.

Flop = Kc 3c 9s

He leads for £6, bb folds, I raise to £15, he calls.

Turn = 2d

He checks, I bet £20, he calls.

River = 7h

He checks.

He has £65 left. About £75 in the pot. Do I check, value bet a small amount or stick him in?

Is this a dead easy decision?


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: maldini32 on December 21, 2008, 01:57:12 AM
Easy decision, put him in.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: pokerfan on December 21, 2008, 12:38:10 PM
Easy decision, put him in.
Agree, he cant pass £65 in to £140 pot. Got to have QK


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: GlasgowBandit on December 21, 2008, 12:47:39 PM
I would normally bet about 2/3 of the pot here hoping he has a part of that board.  I fear though that we may have run into something silly like 9c 7c


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: kinboshi on December 21, 2008, 02:43:59 PM
I think with deeper stacks there might be merit in checking it down.  But with the size of the stacks, ship the lot in and then reload when he turns over 9h 2h.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: bolt pp on December 21, 2008, 03:51:30 PM
set him in


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: boldie on December 21, 2008, 06:35:50 PM
bet it...he'll probably fold his missed FD but you could be nicely ahead here and get paid.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: daviebhoy on December 22, 2008, 12:18:42 PM
I think the pot is in serious danger of getting too big for the strength of our hand and I would be tempted to check it as we have no info on opponent and there are quite a few hands beating us here by the time we get to the river.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: boldie on December 22, 2008, 12:35:16 PM
I think the pot is in serious danger of getting too big for the strength of our hand and I would be tempted to check it as we have no info on opponent and there are quite a few hands beating us here by the time we get to the river.

Like what?..the draws missed...essentially it is unlikely that any hand we were beating on the flop we are losing to now.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: daviebhoy on December 22, 2008, 12:45:24 PM
Look at it from your opponents view. He hits 2pair on flop with K3 and gets re-raised. Its clear you are not on a draw and he is worried about KK, 99 or K9. If you have AK then you are likely to hang yourself. So, he just calls raise and on turn.

If he had K7 he has just made his two pair on river and may have horribly sucked out.

You have TPTK, I'm not comfortable putting my entire stack in with it. Your opponent could be slow playing trips or had 2 pair all along.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: snoopy1239 on December 22, 2008, 12:46:10 PM
I think the pot is in serious danger of getting too big for the strength of our hand and I would be tempted to check it as we have no info on opponent and there are quite a few hands beating us here by the time we get to the river.

Like what?..the draws missed...essentially it is unlikely that any hand we were beating on the flop we are losing to now.

Draws are irrelevant on the river as a hand we are beating as they will fold to a value bet.

I say we are beating K-Q, K-J, K-T, J-J, T-T - I expect all other hands will fold.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: bolt pp on December 22, 2008, 12:52:55 PM
Look at it from your opponents view. He hits 2pair on flop with K3 and gets re-raised. Its clear you are not on a draw and he is worried about KK, 99 or K9. If you have AK then you are likely to hang yourself. So, he just calls raise and on turn.

If he had K7 he has just made his two pair on river and may have horribly sucked out.

You have TPTK, I'm not comfortable putting my entire stack in with it. Your opponent could be slow playing trips or had 2 pair all along.

??????????

If he had any of the hands you're suggesting then he played it about as bad as he could and if he is a bit of a dougnut then he's raising the turn after lead calling the flop.

kq, kj and even k/shit is gonna probs call now(not k rag so much), but it really does look like a kq sort of hand.

On such an unconnected board you're giving up too much value checking IMO.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: Nem on December 22, 2008, 01:00:57 PM
£55


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: bolt pp on December 22, 2008, 01:08:10 PM
£55

I like this, but if he re-shoves then i sort of have to agree with daviebhoy about his range and we can probably fold.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: Nem on December 22, 2008, 01:11:31 PM
£55

I like this, but if he re-shoves then i sort of have to agree with daviebhoy about his range and we can probably fold.

If he re shoves we insta call ldo.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: daviebhoy on December 22, 2008, 01:12:58 PM
Quote
I say we are beating K-Q, K-J, K-T, J-J, T-T - I expect all other hands will fold.

I would expect JJ or TT to re-raise in SB and fold when you re-raise the flop.

beating :

KQ, KJ, KT

mibbe beating (can't see these hands calling re-raise on flop) :

QQ, JJ, TT, 88, K8, K6, K5, K4

We are behind to :

99, 33, K9, K3

mibbe behind to (AA, KK re-raises pre and others prob don't call re-raise on flop) :

AA, KK, 77, 97s, K2, K7

Most of the hands we are beating fold to the push and the ones that call are often beating us. The only hand I imagine calling the push on the end is KQ really. Value bet looking for weak kings to call and fold to any re-shoves. Or just check it down.  This is the safest option against an unknown opponent IMO.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: bolt pp on December 22, 2008, 01:14:12 PM
£55

I like this, but if he re-shoves then i sort of have to agree with daviebhoy about his range and we can probably fold.

If he re shoves we insta call ldo.


Waste of a tenner IMO ;)


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: Royal Flush on December 22, 2008, 04:04:48 PM
Quote
I say we are beating K-Q, K-J, K-T, J-J, T-T - I expect all other hands will fold.

I would expect JJ or TT to re-raise in SB and fold when you re-raise the flop.

beating :

KQ, KJ, KT

mibbe beating (can't see these hands calling re-raise on flop) :

QQ, JJ, TT, 88, K8, K6, K5, K4

We are behind to :

99, 33, K9, K3

mibbe behind to (AA, KK re-raises pre and others prob don't call re-raise on flop) :

AA, KK, 77, 97s, K2, K7

Most of the hands we are beating fold to the push and the ones that call are often beating us. The only hand I imagine calling the push on the end is KQ really. Value bet looking for weak kings to call and fold to any re-shoves. Or just check it down.  This is the safest option against an unknown opponent IMO.

Please stop, all these better hands would have check jammed turn or jammed river, and people cannot be bad enough to just lead fold Kx QQ-TT etc on this flop.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: T_Mar on December 22, 2008, 04:15:13 PM
Definately have to bet imo, looks like a hand he wants to get to showdown with so bet about 2/3 of the pot


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: daviebhoy on December 22, 2008, 04:22:07 PM
Quote
Please stop, all these better hands would have check jammed turn or jammed river, and people cannot be bad enough to just lead fold Kx QQ-TT etc on this flop.

Okay, so you have never seen anyone do any of these things before ? I apologise for not realising that every player does exactly the same thing. In that case the fact we have no info on our opponent doesn't matter as we can predict what he would have done based on how he should have played.

I agree KQ is likely but as stated originally I would be tempted to check here as I think the pot has become too big for the strength of the hand and we have far from the nuts.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: bolt pp on December 22, 2008, 04:28:21 PM

Okay, so you have never seen anyone do any of these things before ? I apologise for not realising that every player does exactly the same thing. In that case the fact we have no info on our opponent doesn't matter as we can predict what he would have done based on how he should have played

please stop


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: action man on December 22, 2008, 05:19:22 PM
for players who check behind here  www.cardrunners.com

for players who bet  www.wearegettingpaid.com/longterm


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: bolt pp on December 22, 2008, 05:26:05 PM
LOL @ were getting paid.com


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: boldie on December 22, 2008, 05:33:13 PM
for players who check behind here  www.cardrunners.com

for players who bet  www.wearegettingpaid.com/longterm

best answer yet.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: RichEO on December 22, 2008, 05:35:30 PM

He has £65 left. About £75 in the pot. Do I check, value bet a small amount or stick him in?

Is this a dead easy decision?


You are ahead almost all the time time here. Decision is, do you bet £64 or £65.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: Graham C on December 22, 2008, 07:19:23 PM
for players who check behind here  www.cardrunners.com

for players who bet  www.wearegettingpaid.com/longterm

So wanted that to be a balla page of some kind, had to click to see :D


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: LeKnave on December 22, 2008, 08:51:02 PM
for players who check behind here  www.cardrunners.com

for players who bet  www.wearegettingpaid.com/longterm

so gold clam. A+.

/thread.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: Royal Flush on December 22, 2008, 11:45:11 PM
Quote
Please stop, all these better hands would have check jammed turn or jammed river, and people cannot be bad enough to just lead fold Kx QQ-TT etc on this flop.

Okay, so you have never seen anyone do any of these things before ? I apologise for not realising that every player does exactly the same thing. In that case the fact we have no info on our opponent doesn't matter as we can predict what he would have done based on how he should have played.

I agree KQ is likely but as stated originally I would be tempted to check here as I think the pot has become too big for the strength of the hand and we have far from the nuts.

There is a slim chance you are going to shove into a better hand, there is a massive chance you are going to shove into a worse hand.


Do you fold AA pre when someone shoves because you might get outdrawn?

That is the equivalent to checking here.

Forget about your actual hand strength, it's not about that its about relative hand strength.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: NoflopsHomer on December 22, 2008, 11:54:38 PM
Forget about your actual hand strength, it's not about that its about relative hand strength.

Priceless advice imo.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: snoopy1239 on December 23, 2008, 03:02:23 AM
I shoved. He called. I won.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: TheChipPrince on December 23, 2008, 11:39:52 AM
I shoved. He called. I won.

KQ?


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: LOJ on December 23, 2008, 07:11:29 PM


??


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: MC on December 23, 2008, 09:32:24 PM
He'd shove the river if he had you beat.

Put him all-in!


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: UpTheMariners on December 23, 2008, 10:39:58 PM
i would of raised to at least 20 on the flop then made it at least 30 on the turn giving you a much better chance of getting called when you shove the river.


Title: Re: Check or Value Bet?
Post by: AlexMartin on December 28, 2008, 12:11:29 AM
gay bet the river to induce shove yo.